BracketDobber '07

2007-03-22T16:22:00.000-05:00

First Weekend Recap

This is going to be a short post. I was offered a job during the first set of games on Thursday, and my head's been spinning ever since. I would say the first two rounds were disappointing, but I would just be repeating everyone else who follows college basketball. The good thing about the lack of upsets and excitement is that there weren't random upsets and excitement. That was good for my picks.

Round 1: 22-10 (20-12 last year)
Round 2: 12-4 (11-5 last year)

OK, so that's not a huge improvement, but my Elite Eight is intact. So, I naturally am not making any changes to my picks for the regional rounds.

Here's to 8-0 on Thursday and Friday!

2007-03-13T16:25:00.000-05:00

Pick Time

Since Wednesday night is trivia night and it's probably not a good idea to make picks when buzzed or outright drunk, my picks are ready in time for the play-in game.

However, before we take a look at 2007, let's take a look back at 2006.

First round: 20-12 (.625 - bleh)
Second round: 11-5 (.688 - better)
Regional Semis: 2-6 (.250 - huh? UCLA and UConn were the only two right.)
Regional Finals: 1-3 (.250 - terrible. I only had UCLA in the Final Four)
Rest of the way: 0-3 (.000 - "bizarrely dreadful" to quote Simon Cowell. I drank the UConn-Duke Kool-Aid. Two teams I'm not fond of. That'll teach me.)
Total tournament: 34-29 (.540 - not good at all)

Considering my picks usaully stack up in the 66 to 70 percent range, I'm hoping last year was an abberation. Perhaps I do need to drink when making these after all!

So (gulp) here we go with 2007.

MIDWEST
Round One
Florida (of course)
Purdue over 'Zona, since the Wildcats are one of the worst defensive teams I've seen in 25 years of watching basketball.
Butler over ODU in a close one.
Maryland over Davidson, also in a close one.
Notre Dame over a feisty Winthrop (This one could be a game for the ages. If you like good shooting, get to a bar for it if it's not on locally.)
Oregon
Georgia Tech over UNLV since I think the Jackets can make a run.
Wisconsin

An aside - There are two Pacific time zone sites this year, that means there are two 5 p.m. games that will have limited distribution because of local news. On Thursday at about 5:10 in Sacramento, GW will play Vanderbilt. On Friday at around 5:05 in Spokane, Notre Dame will play Winthrop. Now, I am a geography whiz (so you'll have to trust me on this if you're not), but I noticed none of those teams are Western. In the first games of those doubleheaders, Washington State will play Oral Roberts and Oregon will play Miami University. (Gee, Chris, I just looked at a map and noticed that two of those teams definitely qualify as Western.) Last year, the 5:00 game in San Diego (granted it was delayed by an overzealous bomb-sniffing dog) was UCLA-Belmont. What was CBS thinking?!

Round Two
Florida again
Maryland will get a real test from Butler, but will advance.
Oregon over Notre Dame in another lights out shooting exhibition.
Georgia Tech over Wisconsin, as the Badgers get exposed.

Regional Semifinals
Florida over Maryland
Oregon over Georgia Tech, as Aaron Brooks's experience will be too much.

Regional Final
Florida over Oregon, as the Gators overall experience will be too much.

WEST
Round One
Kansas
Villanova over a lackluster Kentucky team.
Illinois, who maybe shouldn't be in the field, over an unpredicatable Virginia Tech team.
Southern Illinois over Holy Cross in a defensive battle.
Virginia Commonwealth will squeak by Duke.
Pitt will get a battle from Wright State, but will survive.
Gonzaga over Indiana in a matchup I struggled with. It will be the second straight tourney win over the Hoosiers for the Zags.
UCLA

Round Two
Kansas
Southern Illinois will win the Bruce Weber Bowl.
Pitt survives the Rams.
UCLA gets a second weekend in California with a win over Gonzaga for the second straight year.

Regional Semifinals
Kansas over SIU
UCLA over Pitt in the Ben Howland Bowl.

Regional Final
UCLA over Kansas, as the Bruins benefit from the semi-home advantage in San Jose.

EAST
Round One
North Carolina
Marquette over Michigan State, in one of the many student-pupil matchups we have or could have this year.
Arkansas shocks an overseeded USC.
Texas over New Mexico State.
George Washington over a Vandy team that can't win away from Memorial Gym. (They're playing in Sacramento for crying out loud!)
Washington State
Texas Tech over BC in a knock-down, drag-out fight.
Georgetown

Round Two
North Carolina
Texas wins the old school SWC battle.
Washington State beats GW.
Georgetown

Regional Semifinals
North Carolina over Texas, especially if no one other than Kevin Durant shows up for the Longhorns.
Georgetown over Wazzu in a surprisingly good game.

Regional Final
Georgetown pulls it together to beat UNC.

SOUTH
Round One
Ohio State
Xavier over BYU.
Tennessee over an overseeded Long Beach State team.
Virginia may lose to Albany, but that's not my pick.
Louisville will get beat up on the inside by Stanford, but pull it out because of an unfair semi-home court advantage.
Texas A&M
Creighton over Nevada in a game that truly could go either way.
Memphis

Round Two
Ohio State in the Thad Matta Bowl.
Tennessee ends Virginia's season.
Texas A&M survives the Cards, probably because of some strategically placed UK fans.
Memphis barely gets by Creighton.

Regional Semifinals
Ohio State gets by Tennessee
Texas A&M uses the homecourt advantage of playing in San Antonio to beat Memphis.

Regional Final
Texas A&M gets to the Final Four by winning in their own backyard, much like a certain 3 seed in 2003 who I'm quite fond of.

National Semifinals
Florida over UCLA in a game similar to last year's final.
Georgetown over Texas A&M. Too much size.

National Final
Florida over Georgetown because of their experience.

I'll check in on Sunday or Monday night with an early round recap.

E-mail me.

2007-03-11T18:12:00.000-05:00

Still Steaming over Syracuse

This season gave the NCAA Men's Basketball Committee a selection and seeding process that involved more challenges than ever before. Unbalanced scheduling in the major conferences produced convoluted conference races and logjams everywhere. With that being said, I can't really fault them for most of their selections and seeding decisions. There were a few that surprised me, so I'm now going to take some time to review the bracket and nitpick.

1 seeds: Florida, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State I was shocked to see the defending champs as the #1 overall seed, especially after the way they sleptwalked through the last couple of weeks of the regular season. I put UCLA on the top line over Kansas, based on the entire season, but the Committee must have liked the way the Jayhawks finished. I can't really fault them for that, especially since the Bruins and Jayhawks would meet in the regional final (if they both get that far).
My picks: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA

2 seeds: Georgetown, Memphis, UCLA, Wisconsin No qualms with these four teams. Aside from the Bruins, these are the four teams I thought would be here.
My picks: Georgetown, Kansas, Memphis, Wisconsin

3 seeds: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, Washington State, I dropped Washington State down to the four line, primarily based on how they finished compared to Texas. The South region is very interesting in terms of some of the geographical decisions. A&M will play in San Antonio, if they get to the Regionals. That puts Ohio State and Memphis at a disadvantage. Why do I say "if"? Well, the Aggies are at a disadvantage in the sub-regional, as they may have to play Louisville in round 2, in Lexington. So much for being a protected seed.
My picks: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M

4 seeds: Maryland, Southern Illinois, Texas, Virginia I have no real arguments here, considering I had everyone here within a seed line. I thought that Virginia's troubles at the end of the regular season and losing in the ACC quarterfinal cost them a spot as a protected seed. They do have a difficult sub-regional, however, with a gutsy Albany team and a potential round two matchup with Tennessee.
My picks: Maryland, Notre Dame, Southern Illinois, Washington State

5 seeds: Butler, Tennessee, USC, Virginia Tech This is where I started to have issues with the seeding part of our program. I think Butler, Tennessee, and USC are all overseeded. I felt the Bulldogs really dropped the ball at the end of the regular season, instead they end up with the seed they would've gotten had the season ended a month ago. USC was good, but nothing special, and certainly not special enough to be four places at the most from a protected seed. Tennessee is very inconsistent, but had a good schedule, which must have helped. Chris Lofton's healthy status must also have helped. I had Virginia Tech a line lower based on NC State's sweep of them and their tendency to take games off.
My picks: Louisville, Nevada, UNLV, Virginia

6 seeds: Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Louisville, Duke I had two of these teams higher (Notre Dame and Louisville) and two lower (Duke and Vandy). I can understand Louisville as a 6 based on how they played early in the season. (They still should have to play outside of their home state.) I felt that Notre Dame was far too consistent and dangerous to be this low. Duke's schedule put them here, but their actual results should put them slightly lower. I can understand Vanderbilt's placement on this line, since they do own wins over a 1 seed (Florida) and a 2 (Georgetown).
My picks: BYU, Creighton, Marquette, Virginia Tech

7 seeds: Boston College, Indiana, Nevada, UNLV Indiana and Boston College are just about spot on here. Nevada's lack of schedule strength probably put them here. (I should've known better.) UNLV's schedule is a little better, so I expected them to be a couple of lines higher.
My picks: Boston College, Tennessee, USC, Vanderbilt

8 seeds: Arizona, BYU, Kentucky, Marquette Arizona and Kentucky have been disappointing this year, UK more so than their Western brethren. I expected Kentucky to be far lower based on their lack of quality wins. I had Arizona here because they've had their moments. I expected Marquette to be a bit higher because of their wins in and out of conference. BYU should've been higher because of how they've played lately. However, the committee probably didn't care much for their schedule strength.
My picks: Duke, Indiana, Michigan State, Xavier

9 seeds: Michigan State, Purdue, Villanova, Xavier These were all right on the button or on the 8 line, which is pretty much a distinction without a difference.
My picks: Arizona, Butler, Purdue, Villanova

10 seeds: Creighton, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Texas Tech I had Georgia Tech here and can understand why Texas Tech is here. (I had them as an 11.) However, Creighton should've been higher, probably not as high as the 6 line where I had them, but at least in an 8/9 game. Gonzaga should've been lower simply because they're not the team they were last year or even earlier this season, especially without Josh Heytvelt.
My picks: Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia Commonwealth, Syracuse

11 seeds: George Washington, Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop I had all of these teams within one line, so I can't really argue with the Committee here.
My picks: Drexel, Kentucky, Illinois, Texas Tech

12 seeds: Arkansas, Illinois, Long Beach State, Old Dominion I had Syracuse and Drexel in instead of Arkansas and Old Dominion. I can understand why the Committee took ODU over the Dragons, since Drexel did lose to the Monarchs twice. However, Drexel's amazing road record should've gotten them in. (Granted losing to Rider and Bill and Mary didn't help their case.) Syracuse has better (read: top 25) wins though, even if the Razorbacks made it further in their conference tournament. Of this group, I think Illinois could've been higher, since their profile isn't terrible. I also think Long Beach State could've been lower, since I wasn't too impressed with them or the Big West this year.
My picks: Davidson, George Washington, Gonzaga, Stanford

13 seeds: Albany, Davidson, Holy Cross, New Mexico State If I would've kept Davidson here today, I would've been 3 for 4. Albany did a great job as a 16, and I had Vermont slotted here if they won the America East. The Committee must be expecting a good effort from the Great Danes this weekend.
My picks: Holy Cross, New Mexico State, Pennsylvania, Holy Cross

14 seeds: Miami University, Oral Roberts, Pennsylvania, Wright State I though the Quakers and Raiders deserved better here. Wright State beat a 5 seed twice! The Eagles and Redhawks are exactly where I thought they'd be.
My picks: Long Beach State, Miami University, Oral Roberts, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

15 seeds: Belmont, North Texas, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Weber State I had North Texas lower based on their relatively low finish in the Sun Belt, Corpus Christi higher because of their decent schedule, and Weber lower because of their weak schedule.
My picks: Albany, Belmont, Eastern Kentucky, Niagara

16 seeds: Central Connecticut State, Eastern Kentucky, Florida A&M, Jackson State, Niagara I had Florida in the play-in game before Kansas was a 1. Now that the Jayhawks are up and playing on Friday, the potential of a Florida-Florida A&M rematch is avoided. I had both the Colonels and Purple Eagles higher because of their schedules.
My picks: Central Connecticut State, Florida A&M, Jackson State, North Texas, Weber State

I'll post more tomorrow and post my picks on Tuesday.

2007-03-11T17:43:00.000-05:00

Quick Post-Mortem

Here's the simple statistical breakdown for the year and a comparison to last year.

32 of 34 at-larges correct, same as last year (ODU and Arkansas get in over Syracuse (sigh) and Drexel)

23 seeds correct (28 last year)
25 off by 1 line (19 last year)
12 off by 2 lines (13 last year)
1 off by 3 lines (3 last year)
1 off by 4 lines (same as last year)

I'll post more after I study the bracket more.

2007-03-11T16:24:00.000-05:00

Final Projected Bracket

Well, it all comes down to this, the final bracket. In a half hour, we'll all see how close I got this year. I made quite a few changes to the top four lines based on today's action and quiet introspection.

Top seeds - Ohio State, UCLA, Florida, North Carolina This decision is based on the whole body of work for the season. I thought about keeping Kansas up top, but decided against that after Carolina won the ACC tourney and the Jayhawks got into a battle with Texas. Kansas's slightly weaker schedule, particularly in conference, also costs them.

2 seeds - Kansas, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Memphis The only teams here with a really great case for a 1 are Kansas and Georgetown. The Badgers lost two of three to Ohio State and Memphis's conference schedule eliminate them.

3 seeds - Texas A&M, Pitt, Oregon, Texas The Longhorns trade places with Washington State based on a stronger finish.

4 seeds - Washington State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Southern Illinois Notre Dame and Maryland move up and replace Louisville and UNLV based on their overall performance for the season.

At the other end of the bracket, I made one change to the at-large pool. I dropped Arkansas after their second half collapse in Atlanta and replaced them with Drexel.

Last Four In
Drexel
Illinois
Stanford
Texas Tech

Last Four Out
Air Force
Arkansas
Missouri State
West Virginia

Next Four Out
Bradley
Florida State
Kansas State
Old Dominion

Breakdown by Conference
ACC: 7 (North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech)
Big East: 7 (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, USC, Arizona, Stanford)
Big 12: 4 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech)
SEC: 4 (Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky)
Atlantic 10: 2 (Xavier, George Washington)
Colonial: 2 (VCU, Drexel)
Horizon: 2 (Butler, Wright State)
Missouri Valley: 2 (Southern Illinois, Creighton)
Mountain West: 2 (UNLV, BYU)
Western Athletic: 2 (Nevada, New Mexico State)

Post-mortem around 7:30

2007-03-11T14:01:00.000-05:00

Selection Sunday, 3:10 pm.

Florida won the SEC final impressively. That should be enough to ice their 1 seed. Arkansas now has a nerveracking 3 hours coming up. I'm going to drop them out of my final projected bracket.

North Carolina struggled to get by a pesky NC State squad. I think that the Heels stay on the 2 line because of it. That may change based on what happens between Kansas and Texas over the next two hours.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, in search of their first ever NCAA bid (in their first year in a conference), are ahead of defending champion Northwestern State at halftime.

2007-03-11T12:28:00.000-05:00

Selection Sunday, 2:02 p.m.

Al Horford limped off the court with about a minute to go in the first half of the Florida-Arkansas game. If it's a serious injury, that's a huge problem for the Gators, as Al's been the most consistent player on the team all year. (He even sunk a 17-footer early in the half, leaving me to rub my eyes in disbelief.) UF has an 8-point lead at the half. It will be hard to extend that further if Horford doesn't return.

In the ACC final, North Carolina also has an 8-point lead at the half. Both the Heels and Wolfpack are shooting it well: NC's at 60% and NC State at 50%. Carolina's started to pull away late in the first.

2007-03-11T11:50:00.000-05:00

Selection Sunday, 12:58 p.m.

Championship Sunday is set to begin. The Southland Conference is the last one-bid league to determine it's champion. When that game's over, I'll post the recap of my picks from a month ago.

In today's championship games, here's what I'll be looking for.

The race for the final two three seeds will be settled at some point this afternoon. Ohio State is close a lock for one of the four, provided they don't lose badly to Wisconsin. In my mind, six teams have a chance at the other three. Florida, Kansas, and UCLA have the other three at the moment. North Carolina could swipe one with a Gator or Jayhawk loss. The Badgers could nudge themselves up from the two line with a win over the Buckeyes. I think Georgetown is an outsider.

I think Florida will win the SEC, North Carolina will end NC State's run through the ACC, Texas will knock off Kansas, and Ohio State will hold off Wisconsin.

Arkansas really needs to put on a good show against Florida today. If they get blown out, they may drop back out. I did some more number crunching this morning, and have made one change to my at-large pool for the final bracket. One more could come if the Razorbacks get smoked.

Let the games begin.

2007-03-11T09:56:00.000-05:00

Selection Sunday, p.m.

Now that all of the one- or two-bid leagues have wrapped up their conference tournaments, let's take a look at my picks for them from one month ago today.

America East - Vermont won at Albany this afternoon to solidify their lead. That's a sweep for the Catamounts. Since the regular season champ gets to host the tournament final, I'm picking Vermont to win the auto bid.

Result: Albany prevented the Catamounts from getting the season sweep and advanced. 0-1

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State holds a two-game lead over Belmont. The Bucs also have gone 3-1 against the Bruins and their eternal Nashville rivals, Lipscomb, this year. ETSU also hosts the league tourney. That didn't help them last year, but this year they'll be too much. ETSU will be in one month from now.

Result: Belmont completely demolished the Bucs at home. 0-2

Atlantic Ten - This shouldn't be a one-bid league, but it is for the moment. This is traditionally a wild tournament, so I expect that Xavier won't hold on to the auto bid. UMass will make it two bids for the A-10. It could just as easily be GW, Temple, St. Joe's, or Rhode Island making it out, but the Minutemen are tested.

Result: UMass didn't even make the final, GW and Rhode Island did, and the Colonials prevailed. 0-3

Big Sky - Another league where the regular season winner hosts the tournament, so at the moment Weber State would be the host. The Wildcats still have to host second place Montana. I think the Grizzlies will pull it out and host. Montana will get the auto bid again.

Result: Montana got knocked out the semis, and Weber State got the hosting rights anyway and pulled it out. 0-4

Big South - Winthrop is running away with it right now. If they make the final, it will be in Rock Hill. Winthrop will hold off Coastal Carolina to make the tournament and avoid sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Result: VMI made it close, but Winthrop kept an at-large open for another team. 1-4

Big West - Long Beach State goes to Cal State-Fullerton tomorrow for a first place battle. The conference tournament is in Anaheim, so there shouldn't be a real advantage for the 49ers, Titans, or the third-placed UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos. I'm going to go out on a limb here and pick LBSU.

Result: LBSU pulled away late to win it last night. 2-4

Colonial - VCU appeared to have it all wrapped up until they lost to ODU by 16 in Norfolk. That loss also damages the Rams at-large hopes, so the CAA could be a one-bid league this year. The one advantage VCU has is that the conference tournament is in Richmond, which is why they're my pick to survive.

Result: VCU held off George Mason to take the crown. 3-4

Conference USA - One word: Memphis, everyone else is just a really bad pretender.

Result: No one else even had a chance. 4-4

Horizon - As I said before, this one could be a bit interesting depending on Butler and Wright State's stretch runs. I think the Bulldogs will go 3-0 and take the regular season crown, then beat the Raiders for the auto bid at Hinkle. In the end, the team that gets at-large spot 34 will have Butler to thank for taking care of business.

Result: Wright State got it the final at home and took advantage. 4-5

Ivy - No conference tournament here, though there will be a playoff if teams end up tied. I'm going to play the percentages here and pick Penn to win the Ivy.

Result: Good call on my part. 5-5

Metro Atlantic - Marist is the best team in this league from a talent perspective, but Loyola has led for much of the season. The two teams split, each winning at home. I'm not sure if there will be a rubber match in Bridgeport for the auto bid, but I do think Marist will win it.

Result: Siena had other ideas, knocking the Red Foxes out in the semis. Niagara then dispatched the Saints in the final. 5-6

Mid-American - Akron and Toledo both sport 9-2 conference marks at the moment. Rockets beat the Zips in their only regular season meeting yesterday in the Glass City. This is another conference tournament famous for its unpredictability, however. I don't think either team makes it. I'm picking Ohio in an upset.

Result: Well, neither Toledo or Akron made it. Ohio didn't either. However, Miami University used a late bank deposit to get there. 5-7

Mid-Continent - Last year, Oral Roberts finally got the hang of winning the conference tournament in a friendly environment. They'll win it again in Tulsa.

Result: The Eagles did it again. 6-7

Mid-Eastern - Delaware State still has to play its two closest challengers again. They go to Norfolk State (Hornets beat the Spartans earlier) and host Florida A&M (Hornets lost to the Rattlers in Tallahassee). Conference tournament is in Raleigh, and I expect Delaware State to be the class of the league again no matter how they finish the regular season.

Result: Florida A&M used a buzzer beater to knock the Hornets out. 6-8

Northeast - Central Connecticut State has really taken control of this conference, which would give them the chance to host the championship game (if they make it that far). CCSU seems a safe bet.

Result: I like when "safe bets" work out. 7-8

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay holds a three-game lead on Samford at the moment. The Governors also swept the Bulldogs, and with four games left in the regular season it would take an epic collapse for APSU to lose the #1 seed in Nashville. Austin Peay should have more support in a third meeting with Samford, so they're my pick.

Result: While the Govs may have had more support, Eastern Kentucky has the bid. 7-9

Patriot - Holy Cross and Bucknell are currently tied for the league. They've already met twice with each winning on their home court. If they stay 1 and 2, the Crusaders and Bison will host quarterfinal and semifinal action. If they win, they meet at the top-seed's arena. Holy Cross is due to break Bucknell's dominance over the league this season and will do it at the Hart Center the Friday before the bracket comes out.

Result: Crusaders won the rubber match at home. 8-9

Southern - Davidson and Appalachian State are both trying to make it as at-larges should they fail to win the conference tournament. However, I'm not sure either will make it period. The tourney's in Charleston, which gives College of Charleston the advantage, and I think, the bid.

Result: The Cougars came tantalizingly close, effectively ending Appalachian State's at-large chances in the process. Davidson is in. 8-10

Southland - This conference's tournament moves to a neutral site this year, the Campbell Center in Houston. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has waited a few years to get a chance at the Big Dance, and they won't fail at their first attempt.

Result: In a thriller that included clock drama just short of the kind on display in Cleveland on Saturday night, the Islanders claim their first ever league title. 9-10

Southwestern - The SWAC has been very competitive this year, with five teams within two games of the lead. That means there will be a wide-open conference tournament in Birmingham. I pick Jackson State, the strongest team overall, to win the auto bid.

Result: The Tigers beat Mississippi Valley State to make the field. 10-10

Sun Belt - It's hard to believe that South Alabama has three games in the loss column on Western Kentucky. They have a full two-game lead on West Division leaders Louisiana-Monroe. One thing to remember is that the Jags lost to WKU by 22 in Bowling Green and needed OT to beat them in Mobile. I pick Western Kentucky to win a rubber match for the automatic bid.

Result: Both South Alabama and Western Kentucky got bounced. North Texas is the surprise qualifier. 10-11

West Coast - Gonzaga may actually need to win their conference tournament to get in. It's in Portland this year, which shouldn't be much of an advantage to anyone. Gonzaga does it again to ruin Santa Clara's hopes of getting in.

Result: Another good call. The Bulldogs needed this win. 11-11

Western Athletic - Nevada now has a two-game lead on an NMSU team that's starting to fade. These two teams meet in Reno to close out the regular season, but the league tournament is in Las Cruces this year. I think Nevada holds serve to take the regular season crown, but New Mexico State takes advantage of being at home to make this a two bid conference.

Result: Utah State bounced Nevada and the Aggies lost to their New Mexico State counterparts. Final Record: 12-11

2007-03-10T23:05:00.000-05:00

Selection Sunday Eve Bracket

A couple of significant changes at the bottom of the at-large pool and a little bit of shuffling among the 3 and 4 lines tonight, but my penultimate bracket of the year looks similar to last night's. The top 8 seeds are unchanged. Memphis and Georgetown both won their conference tournaments today, so their spots on the 2 line are secure. Oregon's demolition of USC in the Pac-10 final propels them to the 3 line. The Ducks flip with Southern Illinois, who falls down to the 4 line. Pitt stays a 3 despite being blown out by the Hoyas tonight. If Texas wins the Big 12 tournament tomorrow, those two teams will probably switch. UNLV remains on the 4 line after its win over BYU for the Mountain West crown tonight.

At the bottom of the at-large pool, I re-evaluated everyone, starting by using my experimental "Scheduling Efficiency Formula," and Air Force and West Virginia ended up the big losers. Actually, the formula doesn't really hurt the Falcons all that much, but their end of season performance did. West Virginia rated near the bottom of the list when I applied the formula to the bubble teams' records, so they fell out. Arkansas and Texas Tech replace them in tonight's bracket. The Razorbacks' non-conference schedule and strong finish puts them back in. My formula doesn't like the Red Raiders much, but it does like them far better than Kansas State. Texas Tech's wins over Texas A&M (twice), Arkansas, and Kansas get them in.

Incidentally, there are a couple of kinks I'd like to correct for in the formula, so that's why it's "experimental."

Last Four In
Arkansas
Stanford
Syracuse
Texas Tech

Last Four Out
Air Force
Drexel
Missouri State
West Virginia

Next Four Out
Bradley
Florida State
Kansas State
Old Dominion

Breakdown by Conference
ACC: 7 (North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech)
Big East: 7 (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, USC, Arizona, Stanford)
SEC: 5 (Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas)
Big 12: 4 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech)
Atlantic 10: 2 (Xavier, George Washington)
Horizon: 2 (Butler, Wright State)
Missouri Valley: 2 (Southern Illinois, Creighton)
Mountain West: 2 (UNLV, BYU)
Western Athletic: 2 (Nevada, New Mexico State)

One final bracket, tomorrow around 5.

E-mail me

2007-03-10T21:03:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 9:10 p.m.

Absolute insanity in Cleveland, Miami appeared to have the MAC title won with a mad bank shot. However, after eight minutes of discussion, the refs realize they didn't start the clock immediately after Akron missed a free throw. .6 ended up back on the clock, so the Zips had one more chance. The inbound was thrown out of bounds, so the Redhawks get in the Dance. Akron now owes the good people at Quicken Loans Arena a new table to replace the one broken on the errant inbound pass.

Your play-in game should be set for Tuesday. Jackson State beat Mississippi Valley State to make the field. The Tigers and Florida A&M have the two lowest RPIs in the field, the usual measuring stick for the Tuesday game in Dayton.

UNLV came from behind to beat BYU for the Mountain West title. I think that should give the Rebels a top four seed. We'll see for sure tomorrow.

Utah State and New Mexico State just started in Las Cruces. Again, the Aggies will win.

2007-03-10T20:04:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 8:15 p.m.

Three teams punched their tickets in the past 10 minutes. Florida A&M used a perfect inbound pass and shot with 1.1 ticks left to end Delaware State's dreams of a double MEAC championship. It seems that the Rattlers are destined for the play-in game, since they currently have the lowest RPI of the teams who've punched their tickets.. George Washington won the Atlantic 10 over a pesky Rhode Island team. Oregon completely demolished USC in the Pac-10 final.

The play-in game may be set tonight. Jackson State leads Mississippi Valley State in the SWAC final with about five minutes to go. Both teams have RPIs that resemble Florida A&M.

BYU opened up a big lead against UNLV in the first half. The homestanding Rebels have cut it to 5, early in the second.

2007-03-10T19:00:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 7:05 p.m.

Oklahoma State's bubble burst, thanks primarily to Kevin Durant. However, the whole Texas team's effort in the second half gave the Longhorns the victory.

George Washington leads Rhode Island at the half in an entertaining A-1o final. USC is currently facing the wrath of the Oregon Ducks as they're down big at the half of the Pac 10 final. Delaware State is holding on at the half of the MEAC final.

I had to set the reminder timer for the Mountain West final on Vs. If I can't remember that hockey's on that station, I certainly am not going to remember that they show college basketball.

2007-03-10T17:26:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 6:04 p.m.

If you're an at-large team on my 11 or 12 line tonight, you have reason to be nervous. NC State will be in the ACC final tomorrow afternoon against UNC.

Texas ended the first half of their Big 12 semifinal on a 10-0 run and started the second with a 6-point lead on OK State. That's now gone, as the Cowboys have taken the lead back. A Longhorn win would end any discussion of the Cowboys as an at-large. If Oklahoma State comes back, all bets are off.

2007-03-10T16:31:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 5:25 p.m.

Florida easily makes the SEC final tomorrow afternoon against Arkansas. The Razorbacks gave UF a battle back in January, but it will be curious to see how they play after having to play an extra game.

Texas-Oklahoma State and NC State-Virginia Tech are the two entertaining games of the moment. (I'm saving Illinois-Wisconsin for a night when I can't sleep. Whoever said Wisconsin basketball would be more exciting with Bo Ryan as coach is a liar.) NC State is up 4 after the under 12 timeout, so they still have high hopes of sweeping the Hokies.

At one point, it was Oklahoma State 16, Kevin Durant 11 in Oklahoma City. Well, the rest of the Longhorns are now showing up, so the two teams are now exchanging the lead regularly.

35 minutes until our next conference finals.

2007-03-10T15:58:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 4:15 p.m.

Kansas State put up a valiant effort, but fell to Kansas by 6. Fran Fraschilla says it was a "good loss," but I still don't think it's enough for the Wildcats.

Florida has their foot on the gas against Ole Miss so far, but we'll see what happens in the second half. The Gators had a big enough lead that they could sleepwalk through the second half against Georgia last night. Earlier in the season, a huge lead against the Rebels became far closer in the second stanza.

NC State, looking for their third win in a row over Virginia Tech, is off to a good start. They're up 18-12 now, and the Pack are on fire from three-point land.

2007-03-10T14:48:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 3:15 p.m.

Arkansas makes the SEC final after pulling away from Miss. State in the second half. They could make a decent case for inclusion tomorrow, but their main problem is their SEC record. Their 7-9 regular season mark adjusts up to 10-9 with three conference tournament wins. However, the bulk of their schedule has been against the weak SEC West.

Purdue is still hanging in with Ohio State. They were up 2 just a few moments ago, but haven't scored in 4:40, so the Buckeyes have taken advantage.

Kansas State starting to fall off the map.

2007-03-10T14:08:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 2:12 p.m.

UNC has pretty much already taken control of their semifinal against Boston College, so most of my attention is on Miss. State-Arkansas, Ohio State-Purdue, and Kansas-Kansas State. I just did another round of number crunching with the bubble teams, and I wouldn't put the Wildcats in without a win this afternoon. Of the bubble teams, they're tied with FSU at the bottom of my experimental "Scheduling Efficiency Rating." This formula is also bad news for Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Stanford. Then again, their performance in the last 10 games and in road/neutral situations also hurts their hopes.

Purdue is actually ahead of Ohio State at the moment. (I warned you.) Arkansas is starting to build a lead against the Bulldogs, thanks to a Stephen Hill score and block combo on consecutive possessions. Wildcats are trying to prove me wrong in Oklahoma City, they're up 7 on the Jayhawks with 14 minutes left in the opening half.

2007-03-10T13:49:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 2:00 p.m.

Vermont couldn't get a shot off at the end, so Albany wins the America East on the road, earning a return trip to the tournament.

Memphis helped the Bubble Boys out by beating Houston handily.

2007-03-10T11:47:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 12:50 p.m.

Memphis is helping those bubble teams breathe a little more easily, as they have an 11-point halftime lead over Houston in the C-USA final.

There's a very interesting discussion on ESPN about Air Force. Jay Bilas says they have a better resume than they had last year (when they got in as a 13 seed), but he, Digger, and Hubert all agree that they're out. Bilas argues the Princeton offense isn't the novelty it used to be, so it's not quite the challenge to prepare for that it was, say, five years ago. Personally, I think their non-conference schedule helps them tremendously, but their performance over the last ten games is problematic. I'm definitely going to look long and hard at the Falcons this evening, especially if results in the SEC and Big 12 tournament cause more bubble trouble.

The guy in the Avis ad who falls in love with his in-car navigation system needs to go see the shrink from the Geico ads.

Currently waiting on action in Atlanta, Tampa, and Oklahoma City. That should reduce the amount of time I have to complain about ads.

2007-03-10T10:40:00.000-05:00

Selection Saturday, 11:15 a.m.

Before the games start for today, here's what I'll be watching for over the next 13 hours or so...

Auto Bids - There are several matchups where neither team has an at-large chance.

America East - Albany @ Vermont
Big West - Cal Poly vs. Long Beach State
Mid-American - Miami U. vs. Akron
Mid-Eastern - Florida A&M vs. Delaware State
Southwestern - Mississippi Valley State vs. Jackson State

Albany, Long Beach State, Delaware State, and Mississippi Valley State are all trying to be the double-champions of their conferences. I'm going to say 3 of the 4 will be successful.

Sometime today or tomorrow, I'll review my one-bid league picks from a few weeks ago to see how successful I am as a prognosticator of conference tourney results.

The other auto bids tonight will either provide a conference with a second team in the field or have a big effect on seeding.

In Conference USA, Memphis can sew up a 100 percent record with a win over Houston. A win this morning/afternoon is the only way the Cougars get in.

In the Atlantic 10, either Rhode Island or George Washington will get in. Both of these teams spent brief spells as the conferences auto-bid in earlier brackets. The Colonials project as a 12 if they win, the Rams a 13.

In the WAC, New Mexico State has the home court advantage for their matchup with Utah State. Reggie Theus's team needs to watch it though, as the Utah Aggies seem to play their best at this time of year. I don't think Utah State has at-large hopes if they lose tonight, but remember they were one of my two misses last season. I pick the Aggies to win.

(Wait for it...there you go, a non-prediction prediction)

In the Pac-10 final, USC and Oregon will be playing to move up. I'll probably move the Ducks up to the 3 line if they win (dropping Southern Illinois back to a 4). USC may go all the way up to a 5 or 6 with a win tonight. I don't see either team dropping far with a loss.

In the Big East final, Pitt and Georgetown are basically playing for a 2 seed. Depending on other results, the Hoyas may stay put on the 2 line if they lose.

In the Mountain West, BYU and UNLV are clearly the two best teams and a top-four seed awaits the winner of this matchup. The loser won't be too far off, and will end up on the 5 or 6 line.

In semifinal action today, teams near the bottom of the at-large pool will be watching several games with bated breath.

SEC - People are talking about Arkansas and Mississippi State as a game where the winner is automatically in. Not so fast. It's definitely an elimination game, but I think Arkansas is closer to safe with a win than the Bulldogs because of the Razorbacks' non-conference performance.
Florida can't slip up against Ole Miss. Memphis, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgetown are all knocking on the door for that final one seed.

Big 12 - Kansas State has gained a lot of attention for their demolition of Texas Tech yesterday, and lots of pundits have them in because of it. I don't. I still think their non-conference schedule and the Big 12 North's weakness may cost them. They also can't completely crash out against their in-state rivals today. Oklahoma State also has a chance to crash the party (after looking like a lock for much of January), but will need a big win against Texas to make a really good case. A Wildcat-Cowboy final will have coaches like John Beilein and Trent Johnson looking for the Rolaids this evening and tomorrow afternoon.

Big 10 - Not really much to talk about here. Ohio State is looking to further cement its one seed, while Wisconsin wants to grab one. Purdue and Illinois look to be safe after big wins yesterday. Purdue could definitely help its cause with a performance similar to the one in their second matchup with the Buckeyes in Columbus, a 7-point overtime loss. Illinois lost by 7 to the Badgers in Urbana-Champaign, so they're hoping for a better result today.

ACC - NC State is trying to be Cinderella. They have a damned good chance, considering they're playing Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack demolished the Hokies by 11 in Blacksburg and 25 in Raleigh. UNC will try to keep its hopes of getting back on the top line alive when they take on Boston College, who probably deserves better than a 7 seed. A second consecutive final appearance may take the Eagles higher.

More in a bit...first action of the day starts in 15 minutes.

2007-03-09T21:16:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday Projection

I would have had this bracket done hours ago if not for some technical difficulties (my HTML editor ate my bracket, uh, twice) and the fact that two at-large bids disappeared and two of the teams on my four line three and a half hours ago lost.

There was a bit of a shakeup on the top line, Ohio State has a tenuous hold on the #1 overall spot and UCLA has slipped to number 2. Kansas replaces North Carolina as a 1. The Jayhawks are fourth overall, while Florida is third. The Tar Heels and Jayhawks would meet in a regional final according to this projection. Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Memphis make up the rest of the two line. The Tigers replace Texas A&M, who were last second losers to Oklahoma State tonight.

The Aggies are joined on line 3 by holdovers Pitt and Washington State and newcomers Southern Illinois, who gained by not playing since Sunday.

My four line meanwhile looks radically different now than it did an hour ago. Nevada and Virginia both lost in that time and tumbled. UNLV made a huge jump from the 8 line. (I'm playing around with a new formula comparing victories to schedule strength, so the Rebels benefited from my calculations.) Oregon and Texas are new arrivals from line 6, while Louisville stays put. Marquette pays the price for losing to Pitt twice in a week, dropping from a 4 to a 6.

Nevada's loss to Utah State and the fact Xavier got bounced out of the A-10 tourney by Rhode Island means one at-large bid is definitely gone, and two are probably gone. I feel the Musketeers are fairly safe as an at-large, given this year's crop. Nevada is a given. That means the WAC and Atlantic 10 are both going to get two bids this year. That means my last two teams in at 7:30, Missouri State and Drexel, both had to tumble out. Tomorrow could mean more of a shakeup, especially with Mississippi State and Arkansas playing what amounts to an elimination game in the SEC semifinals. Georgia Tech, Stanford, and West Virginia's bubbles could be bursting soon.

On a last note, there are two things I'm not happy about with this bracket that I hope I'll be able to resolve tomorrow. 1) There's the potential of a second round rematch between Georgetown and Vanderbilt who met earlier in the season in Nashville. This is typically a no-no, but a logjam of ACC teams on the 6 and 7 lines made it hard to create another matchup. 2) Kentucky plays as an 11 seed in Columbus, which is fairly close. Pittsburgh is also fairly close so this isn't as much of a problem as issue #1, but it's still something I'd like to avoid. (Not that playing in Columbus helped the Wildcats back in 2004.)

Last Four In
Georgia Tech
Purdue
Stanford
West Virginia

Last Four Out
Arkansas
Drexel
Missouri State
Texas Tech

Next Four Out
Bradley
Florida State
Kansas State
Mississippi State

Breakdown by Conference
Big East: 8(Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC: 7 (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Arizona, Stanford)
Big 10: 5 (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue)
SEC: 4 (Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky)
Big 12: 3 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas)
Mountain West: 3 (UNLV, BYU, Air Force)
Atlantic 10: 2 (George Washington, Xavier)
Horizon: 2 (Butler, Wright State)
Missouri Valley: 2 (Southern Illinois, Creighton)
Western Athletic: 2 (Nevada, New Mexico State)

Looks like Cal's run through the Pac-10 tournament will end in the semifinals. That's one more autobid that will go to a team that was already guaranteed an at-large. Cardinal, Mountaineers, and Yellow Jackets can have a slightly less restless night now.

2007-03-09T19:44:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday, 8:25 p.m.

Big TV: SEC-Georgia-Florida
Little TV: Big East-Notre Dame-Georgetown
Full Court Online: MAC-Miami U-Toledo

Gators simply pushed their foot down on the accelerator for about 10 minutes there, and the five minutes where they took the foot off the gas simply didn't matter. 35-14 would be an acceptable final score for an SEC Championship football game, but it's certainly not bad as a halftime score of a basketball quarterfinal.

Of course, my prediction of the SEC East dominating the tournament is dead wrong. This game's winner will be the only Eastern team left.

Toledo was down 10 to Miami at the half, and now they've cut the lead down to 2, forcing Charlie Coles to call a timeout.

If you aren't watching Notre Dame-Georgetown, you're missing some very entertaining basketball. Irish could earn their way to a protected seed (for sure) if they can pull this one out. Michael Wilbon was arguing that Georgetown could get a 1 if they win the Big East tourney on PTI today, but I disagree. I agree with Mr. Tony's position that UNC will trump them if the Heels win the ACC.

A&M up 5 on Oklahoma State. If the Aggies hold on, that will be the final nail in the Cowboys NCAA (or NIT) coffin.

2007-03-09T18:52:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday, 7:40 p.m.

Big TV: SEC-Georgia-Florida
Little TV: Big East-Notre Dame-Georgetown
Full Court Online: MAC-Miami U-Toledo

It's Gator time. My bracket for today is built and will be up sometime after the end of the game with analysis.

Over/under on Alltel ads tonight: 10

Notre Dame is currently trying to run and shoot Georgetown out of the Big East tournament. It's working pretty well, as the Irish are up 10 at the first half's under 4 timeout. The only good thing about Syracuse losing yesterday is that my attention isn't split between two games. ESPN now comparing this ND first half to the 57-point one they had in the Dome back in January. (You know, the one where the Irish bettered the Wizards first half output, despite having two less minutes, in one of the most surreally annoying evenings of my life.)

Now let us never speak of it again.

2007-03-09T18:26:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday, 6:30 p.m.

Tonight's bracket is just about set, I'll just need to format it after the UF game.

As I predicted, Bucknell has made a run and we have a game in the only one that's on at the moment.

Arkansas greatly helped themselves by beating Vanderbilt. Their matchup with Miss. State tomorrow afternoon is now key. I think the winner has a decent, but not great, chance of getting in.

2007-03-09T17:27:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday, 5:30 p.m.

Big TV: Patriot League Final-Bucknell @ Holy Cross
Little TV: SEC-Arkansas-Vanderbilt

Holy Cross is 20 minutes away from breaking Bucknell's stranglehold on the Patriot League. The Bison will undoubtedly have a run in them, however.

I've completed my S-curve for today's bracket. The Texas Tech-Kansas State result gave me a lot to think about. If Arkansas can pull a win out against Vanderbilt, the Hogs will be on my mind as well.

2007-03-09T16:22:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday, 5:10 p.m.

Big TV: Patriot final-Bucknell @ Holy Cross
Little TV: SEC-Arkansas-Vanderbilt

Seriously, how has Kevin Stallings's head not exploded at some point in his life? Every shot of him is one of him yelling at someone or something: a ref, a player, a beer vendor, the shot clock. Commodores are down 4 at the start of the second half, as today seems to be the day the SEC West is attempting to revive itself as a division.

Kansas State absolutely crushed Texas Tech. Before that game, I thought the Red Raiders were going to be back in my bracket today, but that was a terrible final impression to leave. I feel, however, that the Wildcats may leave an absolute crater after their game with Kansas tomorrow afternoon.

2007-03-09T16:15:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday, 4:20

Big TV: SEC-Arkansas-Vanderbilt
Big TV PIP: Big Televen-Purdue-Iowa
Little TV: ACC: Miami-Boston College
Full Court Online: Big 12: Texas Tech-Kansas State

BC had started to make a run on Miami, but the Canes are now back up 9 after the 2nd half's under 4 timeout.

One of the "Keys to the Game" for Kansas State today was "Impress the Committee," not "Hit Some Threes" or "Play Good Defense," "Impress the Committee." They're doing it so far against a Texas Tech team that should be safely in because of its 4-5 mark against the top 50.

BC now has it down to a 4-point gap with two and a half minutes left.

Purdue has a solid lead in a game it desperately needs.

Just a few minutes away until the start of the Pat League final, the day's only auto bid.

2007-03-09T15:28:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday, 3:40

Mississippi State pulls it out, 84-82, despite blowing a 14-point lead and having three players foul out. If they win their semifinal tomorrow, the Bulldogs could be in.

2007-03-09T15:00:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday, 3:27

Big TV: SEC-Kentucky-Miss. State going to OT
Little TV: Big Televen-Purdue-Iowa
Full Court Online: Big 12-Texas Tech-Kansas State

Iowa couldn't hit water from a boat at this point, they've missed 11 of their last 13 FG attempts. They're also doing fantastically from the line, much like Syracuse yesterday afternoon in New York. Purdue has built itself a nice lead to take into the locker room at halftime. They just called a lane violation on Kentucky, after Miss State called a timeout. Bulldogs got the ball and hit a buzzer beater to send it to OT. If you heard a loud "OH!" in your vicinity, I'm sorry.

Miami also hit a buzzer beater to take a 10-point at the half against Boston College. Why are teams underestimating the terrible Hurricanes? As Tony Kornheiser said on his show today, they lost to Binghamton...AT HOME!

Clarification on the timeout-lane violation situation in the UK-MSU game. The refs appeared to call the lane violation before MSU called the timeout.

2007-03-09T14:17:00.000-05:00

2:50 p.m.

Big TV: Kentucky-Miss. State
Big TV PIP: Miami-Boston College
Little TV: Iowa-Purdue

Mississippi State is trying to build a lead on Kentucky (and improve their at-large hopes). The Wildcats have cut a 13-point lead down to 9 in about a minute.

Purdue is one of those teams I'm going to be looking long and hard at this afternoon. (I'm building my at-large pool for tonight's bracket.) If they can get by Iowa, they may slide in. They're up 5 as they approach the under 12 timeout in Chicago.

Other teams I'm struggling with at the moment...
Arkansas
Bradley
Clemson
Drexel
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Illinois
Kansas State
Missouri State
Stanford
West Virginia

2007-03-09T13:22:00.000-05:00

2:05 p.m.

Big TV/Full Court Online: Oklahoma-Kansas
Big TV PIP: Kentucky-Miss. State
Little TV: Florida State-North Carolina

Not a whole lot of competitive basketball at the moment. Kansas is starting to pull away from Oklahoma (40-29, with under 13 minutes to go), Ohio State has just beaten Michigan by 10, Florida State has cut their deficit against Carolina to 14 (less than three minutes remain). In the lone close contenst, Kentucky and Miss. State have gone to the half, with the Wildcats ahead a 3-pointer.

2007-03-09T13:01:00.000-05:00

Selection Friday, 1:21 p.m.

On right now...
Big TV: SEC: Kentucky-Miss. State
Little TV: ACC: Florida State-North Carolina
Big TV PIP: Big Televen: Michigan-Ohio State
Full Court Online: Big 12: Oklahoma-Kansas

OK, Jefferson Pilot or Lincoln Financial, or whatever you are now, country music and college basketball do not mix. (I have a similar message for those who do the music for Nashville Predators home games.) Look, I know this is the South. And, no, I don't care how cute the lead singer is. (Her musical tastes and mine just aren't compatible.) They're just two things that don't work.

UK-Miss. State features the potentially biased pbp combo of Tom Hammond and Larry Conley (both Kentucky grads). They've been OK so far.

Cliff Ellis looks completely lost as part of a halftime studio crew. That or LF/Raycom needs to move their stage lights.

I wonder how many Tennessee fans will be in the crowd at the Georgia Dome tonight. They'll probably be sitting there in that yellow-orange garb of theirs, muttering, "What the hell happened?!" (Sorry, old joke from the Jerry Green era I had to get in.)

Leonard Hamilton got T-d up at the end of the first half of FSU-UNC. The Heels are up 10 and will get two free throws to start the 2nd half.

Oklahoma is using their home court advantage to keep things close with Kansas. The impact on the top seed line could be big if this keeps up into the second half.

Ohio State is pulling away from Michigan. There's a reason that game is on picture-in-picture.

2007-03-06T19:54:00.000-05:00

Five Short Days

That's all that's left. Since it's been over a week since my last projection, there are lots of changes in the first bracket of the final week.

The changes to the top two seed lines are minor. Ohio State and UNC flip places on the top line. I seriously considered moving Kansas up onto the top line in place of either Florida (since the Jayhawks did beat the Gators in Vegas) or Carolina, but decided against it. I think the relative weakness of the Big 12 this year will keep both the Jayhawks and Texas A&M on the 2 line, but we'll have to see what happens in the major conference tournaments later this week. Georgetown moves up on the 2 line and Wisconsin moves down, but at the moment Memphis is really the only team that could crack this line. The fact they play in the conference of the 11 dwarves makes me leery to move them up further, however.

So, my three seeds for today are the Tigers, Pitt, Washington State, and Maryland (!). Since I released my bracket last week before the Terps beat UNC, I didn't give them credit for the win. So, they remained a 10 seed. Currently, Maryland is the hottest team in the country, so they are rewarded with a huge jump.

The 4 line has three newcomers: Virginia and Louisville moving up, moving down. The Cavs move up despite dropping two of their last four (to Southern IllinoisMiami and Wake Forest, no less). It's really a function of other teams (Duke and Virginia Tech to name two) not winning and Nevada's terrible out-of-conference schedule. Marquette hangs around on this line for the same reason. Louisville is here as second-place finisher in the Big East. Southern Illinois drops down from the 3 line after losing to Creighton in the Missouri Valley final Sunday. Notre Dame and Oregon fall to the 6 line mostly because of their recent schedules. Butler falls to a 7 seed because of their recent struggles. The Bulldogs could free up an auto-bid tonight if they beat Wright State at the Nutter Center for the Horizon title.

Two teams fell out of the bracket this week: Purdue and Texas Tech. I'll discuss how they can get back in (and the chances of their other bubble brethren) as I blog during Friday afternoon's games. Georgia Tech and Drexel replace them. The Yellow Jackets ACC schedule and some of their non-conference opponents put them back in. (OK, the win over UNC helped too.) Drexel's non-conference road wins (and Old Dominion's loss to George Mason in the Colonial semis) put them in for now. I think the big six conference tournaments will create lots of chaos with the field this year. A few of the teams in my Last Four Out and Next Four Out groups can still sneak a bid with a couple of wins, and a well-placed loss by an at-large on the 9 to 12 lines.

Last Four In
Drexel
Missouri State
Stanford
West Virginia

Last Four Out
Clemson
Old Dominion
Purdue
Texas Tech

Next Four Out
Alabama
Arkansas
Bradley
Kansas State

Breakdown by Conference
Big East: 8 (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC: 7 (North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, USC, Stanford)
Big 10: 4 (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois)
SEC: 4 (Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky)
Big 12: 3 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas)
Missouri Valley: 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West: 3 (BYU, UNLV, Air Force)
Atlantic 10: 2 (UMass, Xavier)
Colonial: 2 (Virginia Commonwealth, Drexel)
Horizon: 2 (Butler, Wright State)

Next bracket will arrive Friday night.

E-mail me.

2007-03-05T18:29:00.000-05:00

Bracket Delay

I had to delay my Sunday bracket, since the hotel I stayed in last night only had wireless internet. Tonight, I really need to do some job hunting, so my next bracket will be out Tuesday night. Here's the remaining schedule up until (and a little beyond) Selection Sunday:

Brackets on Tuesday at 9, Friday at 11, Saturday at 11, and Sunday at 5.

Debrief Sunday at 9

Picks Tuesday, March 13.

I also plan on doing some live blogging on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as the games happen.

2007-02-26T22:06:00.000-05:00

Conference Breakdown

Since I forgot to post this last night...

Big East: 8 (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova, Syracuse)
ACC: 6 (North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Maryland)
Big 10: 6 (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, USC, Stanford)
Big 12: 4 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech)
SEC: 4 (Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt)
Missouri Valley: 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West: 3 (Air Force, BYU, UNLV)
Atlantic 10: 2 (Xavier, Massachusetts)
Horizon: 2 (Butler, Wright State)

2007-02-25T17:55:00.000-05:00

Two Weeks and Counting...

The big day is just about here. The conference tournament season kicks off at mid-week with many one-bid leagues (and a couple of multi-bid ones) leading off. For multi-bid leagues, maybe the next 14 days will bring some clarity, but I doubt it. Gary Walters, the Athletic Director at Princeton and chair of the Selection Committee was on CBS this afternoon and talked about many of the same frustrations I've had over the past 20 or so hours putting this bracket together. (How I do that is a topic for another day.) 1) There's a lot of bunching in the middle of the major conferences. 2) It's difficult to figure out the better teams in these bunches because, outside of the Pac-10 and Missouri Valley, all of the other leagues in the top 8 (BCS conferences plus the MVC and Memphis and the 11 Dwarves, um, I mean Conference USA) play an unbalanced schedule. For example, team with a 7-9 Big East record at the end of the season could be better than a 9-7 team in the same league based on their opponents. Walters said he expects conference tournaments to be more important than usual. Plus, he also revealed that the Committee is getting together a day early, primarily to work their way through the seeding process.

Might I recommend a week??!! Right now, we appear to have teams in roughly five tiers.

1) The Cream of the Crop: This includes this week's one seeds, UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Florida (Note the change in order: Gators are perilously close to falling to the two line. I was almost going to do it, until Wisconsin lost their second game in a week.). As the top 2 seed, the Badgers also fit in this group.

2) The "Good, but Not Quite There" group: The rest of this week's 2 seeds fit here: Kansas, Texas A&M (both stung by their schedules and weakness of the bottom of the Big 12), and Georgetown (who's unstoppable at the moment, just ask the team they traded spots with). The three most solid 3 seeds are also in this group: Memphis (they're just not being tested in the conference and can't hit free throws), Pitt (a former 2, desperately in need a healthy Aaron Gray), and Washington State.

3) The "Jockeying for a Protected Seed" group: Southern Illinois moves up to a 3 this week. Am I convinced the Salukis are that good? Not really. Really I think anybody from SIU down to the 6 line is interchangable to some degree. Notre Dame, Butler, Oregon, and Marquette make up the 4 line. The Irish come up after beating the Eagles Saturday and three wins they couldn't afford not to get beforehand (at least from a seeding perspective). Butler can't afford to slip up in the Horizon League tournament (more on that in a bit). The Ducks are perhaps breaking out of their inconsistent form after sweeping the Washington schools. Marquette's early season results (and the 5 and 6 line teams' obvious flaws) are keeping them afloat. Pitt next Saturday at the Bradley Center may decide whether they stay here or fall down. The 5s are Virginia Tech (BC win was good, but getting swept by NC State doesn't sit well.), Nevada (They'd be higher if not for a 1-1 record against the Top 50.), Virginia (3rd in the ACC counts for something), and Duke (if they keep it up, they're a protected seed). The 6s are all knocking on the door to some degree: BYU (schedule strength keeps them down here), Texas (coming together at the right time), Louisville (same thing, especially on the road), and Air Force. (Losing to TCU and their 202 RPI is bad news. Keep in mind this is an institution that has never won a game in its conference tournament. They're currently in the 3 spot and staring at a quarterfinal matchup with a Utah team that beat them once. A loss there wouldn't keep them out, but it wouldn't be good for the Zoomies confidence.)

4) The "We're Here, and We're Not Going to Survive the First Weekend" group: lines 7 through 9. The teams here are just too inconsistent. There are a lot of teams here (like Kentucky, Indiana, and Boston College) who were a bit higher earlier in the season who are having trouble. I mean, they're not seriously going to be out, but they're forcing themselves into more difficult matchups by struggling through February.

5) The "Those of You Who Think the Bubble is Soapy are Wrong, It's Gum. How Do We Know? We're Stuck Here" group: Lines 10, 11, and my lone at-large on line 12. These teams are seriously flawed and replaceable. The only problem is, the teams below them are also seriously flawed and replaceable. This week that means that four at-larges fall out, and they're replaced by four new ones.

Off the Board
Georgia Tech - I agonized over this one. The Jackets really need to cheer for Butler in the Horizon League, so an at-large spot opens up. 6-8 in the ACC is dicey, a win over UVa would've solidified their bid. Closing with UNC and BC at home is helpful. I think if they get a split and win their first ACC tourney game, they get in.

Oklahoma State - I didn't agonize here. The Cowboys are the only team in the top 100 who haven't won on the road. They've also lost 6 of their last 7, including noggin scratchers at Colorado and against Missouri at home.

Alabama - If you're trying to build a tournament resume, losing to Auburn at home isn't an impression you want to leave. It's kinda like saying "I love to make personal long-distance calls on company time" on a real resume.

Clemson - Another year, another Tiger Collapse (R). 5-9 in the ACC and losers of 7 of their last 8. Yikes!

In their place...
Michigan State and Illinois - two Big Ten teams who are turning it on at the right time. Illini don't have a bad loss, Spartan wins over Wisconsin and Indiana this week boosted them considerably.

Villanova - The Wildcats are back. Phenomenal computer numbers, smattering of good wins and lack of suspect losses (4-6 vs. the top 50, 8-9 vs. the top 100) make them a 10 seed.

Syracuse - Back, but for how long. Orange have two very difficult games to close the regular season: the Georgetown steamroller in the Dome tomorrow night and at Nova on Saturday. I think a split keeps them in. They're finally winning the games they need to win. This, their 20 wins, and the fact their guaranteed a winning league record pushed them over Georgia Tech (who's not assured of either) for this week. (SU's schedule strength in conference is troublesome, however.)

Last Four In
Illinois
Missouri State
Syracuse
Texas Tech

Last Four Out
Alabama
Drexel
Georgia Tech
Oklahoma State

Next Four Out
Appalachian State
Bradley
Clemson
San Diego State

Conference tournaments start later this week. Here's a quick rundown of who ended up winning the conferences who are ready to start elimination play.

America East - Mike Lonergan's Vermont side took the regular season crown and swept 2-seed Albany. If they survive their first two games in Boston, the Catamounts host the final.

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State hosts the conference tournament, but the Bucs need to watch out for Nashville rivals Lipscomb and Belmont. Jacksonville's late season run to grab third place means ETSU could meet Lipscomb in the semis.

Big South - Winthrop ran the table during the regular season and has home court advantage all the way through.

Colonial - It's going to be a very exciting four days of basketball in Richmond. VCU won the regular season, but ODU, Drexel, and Hofstra will all be up for the challenge. The Rams could meet the Dragons in the semifinals. VCU won at Drexel by 7 in Philly in the two teams only meeting of the season.

Horizon - Wright State won some tiebreaker and will host the final if they get there. (This is despite the fact that MidMajority.com and Ken Pomeroy's RPI site both list Butler first.) Butler gets the two seed, which is bad on two fronts. 1) They don't host the final. 2) They face a semi with rapidly improving Loyola. The Ramblers just beat the Bulldogs at Hinkle on Thursday. I think an at-large bid will be lost because of this situation.

Ivy - Penn can win the league (and be the first team in the field of 65) with a home win against nearest rivals Yale Friday night.

Metro Atlantic - Marist won a thriller against Siena Saturday afternoon to take the regular season crown. The Foxes will be challenged by the Saints and Niagara in Bridgeport.

Mid-Continent - Oral Roberts won the regular season by two full games over Oakland, but lost to the Grizzlies on Saturday. Golden Eagles will have the virtual home court in Tulsa for the rubber match if there is one.

Mid-Eastern - This conference's tournament doesn't get started until the end of Championship Weeks, but Delaware State won the regular season already.

Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois won the regular season and is a lock for an at-large. Will they win "Arch Madness"? I think Creighton, Missouri State, and Bradley have good chances, and Wichita State and Northern Iowa have something to prove.

Northeast - Central Connecticut State ran away with the regular season, and will host the final if they get there. Howie Dickenman's Blue Devils have a 4-0 record against their nearest challengers in the league, Sacred Heart and Quinnipiac.

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay won the conference by three games over Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky, and last year's champs, Murray State. The Governors dropped road games to Tech and Murray.

Patriot - The Patriot League will announce whether Holy Cross or Bucknell gets the top seed in the tournament tomorrow. They use RPI as the tiebreaker. Currently, the Crusaders are 69 and the Bison 85 (according to KenPom.com). Since both teams beat opponents with RPIs over 200 this weekend, I think the final will be in Worcester. Advantage: Crusaders

Southern - Davidson won the regular season crown and Appalachian State won the North Division. The two best teams in the league are on the fringes of at-large discussion, so they can't afford to lose before the final.

Sun Belt - South Alabama won the regular season. Western Kentucky will, as always, be their stiffest opposition. The Cajundome shouldn't give either team too big of an advantage.

West Coast - Gonzaga is back in a tie with Santa Clara atop the league. The Bulldogs close the regular season at San Diego Monday, while the Broncos are at Pepperdine. The conference tournament starts in Portland on Friday.

Three other conferences also have regular season champions:

Conference USA - Memphis
SEC - Florida
WAC - Nevada

Another bracket in a week. Then I'll start more regular updates as conference tournaments wrap up.

E-mail me.

2007-02-18T19:29:00.000-05:00

Three Weeks Left and Some Teams Really Don't Want An At-Large Bid

Every year at about this time, I look at the scores as they roll along on ESPN or ESPNEWS and wonder what in the heck some teams are thinking. Sure, injuries and fatigue are going to start taking their toll after the 20th game of the season rolls around, but teams also seem to forget there are three weeks left to build a resume and there are at-large bids to be had! Here's this week's bracket.

With that being said, the top four seeds again are the same four familiar teams. UCLA, North Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin. I flipped the Tar Heels and Gators after some close calls for the alma mater finally resulted in inevitable defeat at UF's own "House of Horrors," Memorial Gym on Saturday afternoon. We're still one week away from the Badgers matchup at Ohio State that may settle the final one seed.

The twos remain the same: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, and Kansas. The Panthers lost to Louisville (who returns as an 11 seed after that road win and a buzzer-beater win in Milwaukee) and beat Washington, who's so far out of the discussion now that it's not funny.

The 3 and 4 lines look very different this week. Duke took the drop they should've made last week and then some. They're now an 8. Washington State, Memphis, and Marquette are now joined by Georgetown. I was tempted to drop the Golden Eagles to the 4 line after the Louisville loss and last week's beating at the hands of the Hoyas. However, they stay up because of the failings of teams like West Virginia and Oregon. This could be the year for non-BCS conference teams to be factors in protected seed discussions. Three of my four 4s this week are from outside of the Big Six conferences: Air Force moves up from the 5 line and Southern Illinois and Butler stay up (I'm not going to drop the Bulldogs because they lost a close game to the Salukis at Hinkle when AJ Graves was suffering from flu-like symptoms.). They're joined by West Virginia, who moves up despite losing at Georgetown and beating weak Seton Hall at home. (At this point, everyone outside of the top two lines has some warts.) Oklahoma State was on the four line last week, but, much like Duke, they're losing too many games they shouldn't. An 11-point home loss to Missouri is the fourth loss in five for the Cowboys. (The win was a double OT decision over Texas Tech.) Wins over Pitt, Syracuse, Texas, and Missouri State are keeping the Cowboys in. If things don't change, the Committee may ask "what have you done lately" about Okie State and keep them out.

Four teams are out this week, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Villanova, and Arkansas. The Bulldogs dropped two big games this week: Monday at home to Santa Clara, which gave the Broncos the WCC lead and Saturday's heartbreaker to Memphis. If Josh Heytvelt is indeed charged on Tuesday and his suspension lasts for the remainder of the season, the Zags chances will hinge on the conference tournament in Portland. K-State dropped a 13-point decision to a terrible Nebraska team. Villanova barely falls out after dropping a close one to Georgetown on Saturday. (Rhode Island currently holds first in the A-10, which means Xavier steals the Wildcats' at-large bid for the week.) Arkansas lost badly to Miss. State and beat Ole Miss. That split puts the Razorbacks two games below .500 in the lacklustre SEC West and out of this week's bracket.

With that here are the three new at-larges this week...
Louisville - two huge road wins at Pitt and Marquette get them in
Maryland - three good wins in a row Duke, @ tricky NC State, and @ Clemson put the Terps back in
Georgia Tech- won four in a row before falling to Duke today

Breakdown by Conference
ACC - 8 (North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Maryland)
Big East - 6 (Pittsburgh, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville)
Pac-10 - 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, USC)
Big 12 - 5 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech)
SEC - 5 (Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama)
Big 10 - 4 (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue)
Missouri Valley - 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West - 3 (Air Force, BYU, UNLV)
Atlantic 10 - 2 (Rhode Island, Xavier)
Horizon - 2 (Butler, Wright State)

Last Four In
Louisville
Maryland
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech

Last Four Out
Appalachian State
Gonzaga
Syracuse
Villanova

Next Four Out
Bradley
Drexel
Illinois
Michigan State

BracketBuster Saturday was helpful for three teams in particular. Winthrop's demolition of Missouri State means they're a serious contender to get a mid-range seed. Some commentators were saying 8 or 9. I don't think they'll be higher than a 10 myself, which is why they're an 11 this week. Appalachian State's road win at Wichita State means the Mountaineers are a serious at-large contender, while the result may have ended the Wheat Shockers' at-large hopes. App State's resume is a messy one though, with several good wins (Virginia and Vandy in Puerto Rico, @ VCU), several explainable losses (@ Virginia Tech, Wake, and Clemson...though the margins to the Hokies and Tigers were huge), and a few real headscratchers (losing to Elon at home and @ Furman and UNC-Greensboro could be problematic). Drexel's thrilling win at Creighton shows that the Dragons may also be an at-large threat, but they need to take care of business in their final two CAA games and get far in the conference tournament to really have a chance. (Syracuse and Villanova getting back in the field would also help Drexel's quality win total.)

There will be another bracket (with more changes I'm sure) in a week.

E-mail me.

2007-02-11T19:07:00.000-05:00

One Month Until Selection Sunday

It's been two weeks since I last posted a bracket. This week's attempt shows how much upheaval there's been in Bracketville over the past 14 days. Seven at-large teams are gone, a former #3 seed has hit its traditional mid-season skid and is almost out, and there are four newcomers. Oh, and there's been a lot of shuffling in the middle of the pack.

The top four seeds remain the same in both name and order: UCLA, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Ohio State is nipping at the Badgers heels, however. The issue may not be settled until the two teams meet in Columbus on the 25th. Ohio State has a meeting with Minnesota sandwiched between a home-and-home with Penn State, while Wisconsin also plays both the Gophers and Nittany Lions before welcoming the Buckeyes. The Badgers also travel to East Lansing before then. (Michigan State fell out of my projection this week.)

So, the twos are Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, and Kansas. The Jayhawks replaced Oregon, who drop down to the 5 line after a rough two weekends in Southern California and at home against the Arizona schools. Their only win in the four was against a dreadful Arizona State team, and while their effort against Arizona Saturday was impressive, the Ducks fall.

The 3 and 4 lines are where the fun/difficulty really begins. Duke is the only 3 from two weeks ago still holding that seed, and they're barely doing that. It's really the warts on their competition that keeps the Blue Devils from falling down to the 4 line. Washington State, Memphis, and Marquette all deservedly move up (even if the Golden Eagles got smacked at the Phone Booth by Georgetown yesterday). Clemson falls from a 3 to an 11 because they've been so terrible lately, and Oklahoma State dropped to a 4. Joining the Cowboys as 4s are Southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Butler. I was kind of leery about putting the Salukis and Bulldogs this high, since I figured the Committee won't in a month. Then, I looked at the profiles of their competition and felt more comfortable with them than teams like Virginia Tech (inconsistency), West Virginia (schedule strength, even though beating UCLA helped them move up to a 5), Notre Dame (really good, but computer numbers are off for some reason and losing to DePaul isn't helpful), Air Force (getting demolished at San Diego State isn't good), and Nevada (schedule strength)

There were just a few big jumps among the 5-12 lines. Stanford jumped four lines from an 11 to a 7, West Virginia rises from an 8 to a 5, and Arkansas slips from an 8 to an 11. Otherwise, the really big talk should be about who I dumped out and brought in. For starters, I lost two at-large slots this week. Santa Clara holds the West Coast's momentarily over Gonzaga. The two meet in Spokane on Monday night. Wright State beat Butler at the Nutter Center to take the Horizon's auto bid for the week. That loss could mean two bids for the Horizon, since the regular season winner gets hosting rights for as long as their involved in the conference tournament. If the standings hold, Butler will have to beat the Raiders at the Nutter Center to take the automatic spot. The Bulldogs are half a game back, but have a slightly tougher conference slate. (Butler @ UW-Green Bay, home to Detroit and Loyola, Wright State home to Cleveland State and @Youngstown State). So, seven teams fall out: Georgia Tech (and beating UConn today doesn't help), Louisville (iffy two weeks ago anyway, now others are starting to come alive), Maryland (beating Duke today does help, but we'll see what happens at NC State and Clemson), Michigan (four straight league losses and barely getting by an awful Minnesota team see them out), Michigan State (four straight league losses, even if they are all to decent teams), and Syracuse (the one that obviously breaks my heart, but the Orange just weren't able to show they could close a game until today against St. John's). I was going to dump Texas Tech thanks to their five straight conference losses, even if the last two were heartbreakers, but UMass falling to Temple this afternoon gave the A-10 lead to Xavier and opened up one last at-large. The conference wins the Red Raiders do have just keep them in.

With that here are the four newcomers this week...
Kansas State - not a great out of conference profile, but are doing remarkably well in the Big 12
Purdue - beating comparable teams (Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State), good effort against Ohio State Saturday
Vanderbilt - despite getting hammered by Tennessee Saturday, the Commodores are almost like the Purdue of the SEC, beating the teams they need to (Bama, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia)
Virginia - third place in the ACC is normally good enough, this year it should be more than enough

Breakdown by Conference
ACC - 6 (North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Clemson)
Big East - 6 (Pittsburgh, Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova)
Big 12 - 6 (Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech)
Pac-10 - 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, USC)
SEC - 6 (Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas)
Big 10 - 4 (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue)
Missouri Valley - 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West - 3 (Air Force, BYU, UNLV)
Horizon - 2 (Butler, Wright State)
West Coast - 2 (Gonzaga, Santa Clara)

Last Four In
Arkansas
Clemson
Kansas State
Texas Tech

Last Four Out
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Michigan State
Wichita State

Next Four Out
Drexel
Louisville
Maryland
Providence

Looking into the Crystal Ball - The Banana Peel List

Since it is a month until Selection Sunday, I'm feeling brave and will take this opportunity to predict some of the conference races for the conferences that typically just get one bid. Since I don't have Tony Kornheiser's turban and crystal ball from PTI, results may vary.

America East - Vermont won at Albany this afternoon to solidify their lead. That's a sweep for the Catamounts. Since the regular season champ gets to host the tournament final, I'm picking Vermont to win the auto bid.

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State holds a two-game lead over Belmont. The Bucs also have gone 3-1 against the Bruins and their eternal Nashville rivals, Lipscomb, this year. ETSU also hosts the league tourney. That didn't help them last year, but this year they'll be too much. ETSU will be in one month from now.

Atlantic Ten - This shouldn't be a one-bid league, but it is for the moment. This is traditionally a wild tournament, so I expect that Xavier won't hold on to the auto bid. UMass will make it two bids for the A-10. It could just as easily be GW, Temple, St. Joe's, or Rhode Island making it out, but the Minutemen are tested.

Big Sky - Another league where the regular season winner hosts the tournament, so at the moment Weber State would be the host. The Wildcats still have to host second place Montana. I think the Grizzlies will pull it out and host. Montana will get the auto bid again.

Big South - Winthrop is running away with it right now. If they make the final, it will be in Rock Hill. Winthrop will hold off Coastal Carolina to make the tournament and avoid sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Big West - Long Beach State goes to Cal State-Fullerton tomorrow for a first place battle. The conference tournament is in Anaheim, so there shouldn't be a real advantage for the 49ers, Titans, or the third-placed UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos. I'm going to go out on a limb here and pick LBSU.

Colonial - VCU appeared to have it all wrapped up until they lost to ODU by 16 in Norfolk. That loss also damages the Rams at-large hopes, so the CAA could be a one-bid league this year. The one advantage VCU has is that the conference tournament is in Richmond, which is why they're my pick to survive.

Conference USA - One word: Memphis, everyone else is just a really bad pretender.

Horizon - As I said before, this one could be a bit interesting depending on Butler and Wright State's stretch runs. I think the Bulldogs will go 3-0 and take the regular season crown, then beat the Raiders for the auto bid at Hinkle. In the end, the team that gets at-large spot 34 will have Butler to thank for taking care of business.

Ivy - No conference tournament here, though there will be a playoff if teams end up tied. I'm going to play the percentages here and pick Penn to win the Ivy.

Metro Atlantic - Marist is the best team in this league from a talent perspective, but Loyola has led for much of the season. The two teams split, each winning at home. I'm not sure if there will be a rubber match in Bridgeport for the auto bid, but I do think Marist will win it.

Mid-American - Akron and Toledo both sport 9-2 conference marks at the moment. Rockets beat the Zips in their only regular season meeting yesterday in the Glass City. This is another conference tournament famous for its unpredictability, however. I don't think either team makes it. I'm picking Ohio in an upset.

Mid-Continent - Last year, Oral Roberts finally got the hang of winning the conference tournament in a friendly environment. They'll win it again in Tulsa.

Mid-Eastern - Delaware State still has to play its two closest challengers again. They go to Norfolk State (Hornets beat the Spartans earlier) and host Florida A&M (Hornets lost to the Rattlers in Tallahassee). Conference tournament is in Raleigh, and I expect Delaware State to be the class of the league again no matter how they finish the regular season.

Northeast - Central Connecticut State has really taken control of this conference, which would give them the chance to host the championship game (if they make it that far). CCSU seems a safe bet.

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay holds a three-game lead on Samford at the moment. The Governors also swept the Bulldogs, and with four games left in the regular season it would take an epic collapse for APSU to lose the #1 seed in Nashville. Austin Peay should have more support in a third meeting with Samford, so they're my pick.

Patriot - Holy Cross and Bucknell are currently tied for the league. They've already met twice with each winning on their home court. If they stay 1 and 2, the Crusaders and Bison will host quarterfinal and semifinal action. If they win, they meet at the top-seed's arena. Holy Cross is due to break Bucknell's dominance over the league this season and will do it at the Hart Center the Friday before the bracket comes out.

Southern - Davidson and Appalachian State are both trying to make it as at-larges should they fail to win the conference tournament. However, I'm not sure either will make it period. The tourney's in Charleston, which gives College of Charleston the advantage, and I think, the bid.

Southland - This conference's tournament moves to a neutral site this year, the Campbell Center in Houston. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has waited a few years to get a chance at the Big Dance, and they won't fail at their first attempt.

Southwestern - The SWAC has been very competitive this year, with five teams within two games of the lead. That means there will be a wide-open conference tournament in Birmingham. I pick Jackson State, the strongest team overall, to win the auto bid.

Sun Belt - It's hard to believe that South Alabama has three games in the loss column on Western Kentucky. They have a full two-game lead on West Division leaders Louisiana-Monroe. One thing to remember is that the Jags lost to WKU by 22 in Bowling Green and needed OT to beat them in Mobile. I pick Western Kentucky to win a rubber match for the automatic bid.

West Coast - Gonzaga may actually need to win their conference tournament to get in. It's in Portland this year, which shouldn't be much of an advantage to anyone. Gonzaga does it again to ruin Santa Clara's hopes of getting in.

Western Athletic - Nevada now has a two-game lead on an NMSU team that's starting to fade. These two teams meet in Reno to close out the regular season, but the league tournament is in Las Cruces this year. I think Nevada holds serve to take the regular season crown, but New Mexico State takes advantage of being at home to make this a two bid conference.

So, file those. I'll review them as Championship Week unfolds. I'll post a new bracket in a week.

2007-02-01T20:15:00.000-05:00

Much Delayed BracketBuster Matchup Preview

But first, I must take full blame for Syracuse's embarassing loss Tuesday night. I should've never dropped Notre Dame from the 4 line. So, naturally, the Irish decided to take it out on my second team. The amazing thing about that night was the fact that Notre Dame outscored the Wizards by 6 points in the first half. (I watched both games at a local watering hole and could hardly believe it.) Keep in mind, the Wizards had an extra four minutes in the half and Gilbert Arenas. "Apopleptic" doesn't even begin to describe my mood at around 8 p.m. on Tuesday. (OK, maybe it was a little better than that, since the Wizards were winning.)

We won't even get into my trivia experience on Wednesday. (Two weeks in a row and we can win, and I blow a tennis question, then a world history question??? I'm checking my head for the scar from that lobotomy I didn't order.)

Back to BracketBusters, out of my 51 matchup picks, I got a whopping 6 right. Of the ones I got wrong, I must say I got the conference matchup right the majority of the time, which is little consolation. There are 14 TV matchups of varying quality to discuss. So, moving from matchups with the least at-large impact to those with the most...

14. Cal State-Fullerton @ Wright State: The Titans currently lead the Big West and the Raiders are a game behind Butler in the Horizon. These two teams are very close in the RPI, which is good. Unfortunately for them, they're both in the mid-130s. That's why I rank this game 14th of 14 TV games, and probably why the four-letter 360 will air it and 5 people will see it. Predicted matchups: Fullerton @ New Mexico State, Towson @ Wright State

13. Albany @ Boise State: The Great Danes are a game back of Vermont in the America East, and they get play on the brightly coloured floor at BSU Pavillion. That's the highlight, as the Broncos are fading in the WAC race. It's another potentially entertaining matchup featuring two teams who will have to win their conference tournaments to get in. Predicted matchups: Albany @ Marist, Cal-Irvine @ Boise State

12. Kent State @ George Mason: Colonials are trying to keep their collective heads above water in an extremely competitive CAA. Kent State is a game back in the MAC East. Both teams have a halfway decent chance to win their conference tournaments. If they don't, this result will only trouble the NIT committee. Predicted matchups: Kent State @ Loyola-Chicago, Bradley @ George Mason

11. Austin Peay @ Akron: Two current one-loss conference leaders, so now we're starting to get some matchups that look relatively even on paper. However, APSU is currently 122 in the RPI, Akron 96th. The Zips have a better chance of getting a jump thanks to MAC play. This game could be the difference between a spot on the 13 or 14 line for the winner, if they can survive March. Predicted matchups: Austin Peay @ Siena, Old Dominion @ Akron

10. Utah State @ Oral Roberts: The Aggies were the last team in last year. Currently, they're 3 and a half back in the WAC and lost to Nevada by 17 last Saturday. (They've yet to play the Aggies from Las Cruces.) The Eagles just slugged Oakland by 10 to take sole possession of the Mid-Con lead. The only reason this is number 10 on the list is because the Committee seems to like Utah State. Predicted matchups: Utah State @ Missouri State, Northwestern State @ Oral Roberts

9. Old Dominion @ Toledo: Two teams whose best chance of getting in lies in winning their respective conference tournaments. Monarchs won at Georgetown early, so that is their marquee win. Rockets beat VCU in Toledo, also early. Toledo is actually 2-1 against the CAA this year, losing at Drexel and beating Wilmington at home. ODU has yet to play a MAC team. Predicted matchups: Old Dominion @ Akron, Evansville @ Toledo (I'm not sure what I was thinking there.)

8. Ohio @ New Mexico State: Now we're starting to get into games where at-large chances are greater than slim. In this case, the Aggies have a decent chance, primarily because they can beat Nevada. Ohio just beat Toledo to knock the Rockets out of first in the MAC. A win here would help NMSU's resume slightly, but not nearly as much as a win in Reno on March 3. Predicted matchups: Ohio @ Illinois State, Fullerton @ New Mexico State

7. Holy Cross @ Hofstra: The Crusaders are currently dominating the Patriot League and have that slightly inflated RPI of 64. A win over the Pride would be their best. Not that the Flying Dutchmen don't have anything to play for now. An RPI of 109 may doom their at-large hopes, but a win over VCU Wednesday puts them just a game back in the Colonial. This is another game in which a win could do wonders for potential seeding. Predicted matchups: Holy Cross @ VCU, Miami U @ Hofstra

6. Appalachian State @ Wichita State: SoCon leader Davidson isn't in this year's BracketBusters field, so the Mountaineers are carrying the flag into Wichita. The Shockers may finally be getting back on track, after their big win at Northern Iowa Tuesday night. They can't afford a slip-up at home. Predicted matchups: Appalachian State @ Indiana State, Winthrop @ Wichita State

5. Winthrop @ Missouri State: Now we're definitely deep in the at-large pool. The Bears have been a regular fixture in my bracket this season, primarily thanks to their win over Wisconsin in Corpus Christi very early. However, they've done a good job with their mid-major heavy schedule that really reads like a list of BracketBusters. The Eagles, meanwhile, are looking for a big win. (They did lose to the Badgers by 3 on the road and to NC by 7 in Charlotte in the NIT, however.) This should be a competitive and entertaining matchup. Predicted matchups: Winthrop @ Wichita State, Utah State @ Missouri State

4. Southern Illinois @ Butler: If both teams weren't locks, this game would be #1. Some prognosticators have Butler in their top 4 lines. I don't think the Committee will put them that high, but is a 5 doable, certainly. SIU is a solid bet for a 5 or 6 as well, especially if they continue to lead the MVC. I actually got this one right.

3. Northern Iowa @ Nevada: Wolf Pack are more of a lock than the Panthers at this point. This is exactly the kind of win that could solidify a bid for UNI, however. A loss shouldn't hurt Nevada too badly. I got this one right too.

2. Drexel @ Creighton: Creighton and Drexel are two teams that I have differing opinions about compared to other Bracketologists. I think the Blue Jays are in. Second in the Valley, RPI of 28, inconsistent in the non-conference, but making up for it in the league. Drexel's three big road wins in a row don't look so great now, so I don't think they're in. I withhold the right to reconsider after this game. That's three in a row. Let's throw a party!

1. Bradley @ Virginia Commonwealth: Bradley's another middle of the pack Valley team that's trying to separate themselves from the pack. They don't have a standout non-conference win yet, but a win in Richmond could be it. The Rams were tearing through the Colonial until their loss at Hofstra Wednesday. They should be over 20 wins by the time this matchup rolls around, but with a competitive at-large pool this year that's no guarantee. This game should be a doozy. Predicted matchups: Bradley @ George Mason, Holy Cross @ VCU

Next bracket on Sunday, February 11, one month from Selection Sunday.

2007-01-28T15:23:00.000-05:00

Six Weeks Until Selection Sunday

This is the time I expect to see lots of movement in my bracket, and indeed, outside of lines 1 and 2 of my S-Curve this week, I had to do a lot of shuffling. Surprisingly, only one at-large team fell out (and that team, LSU, is a surprise, but I'll chalk it up to the inconsistency of the SEC West as a whole). There are two newcomers this week, as the bracket gained an at-large bid when Gonzaga retook the West Coast's auto bid last night.

While lines 1 and 2 are static, the 3 and 4 seeds this week look very different. Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arizona paid dearly for their recent inconsistency. Kentucky drops to a 5 after losses to Vanderbilt and Georgia. Tennessee lost to the Wildcats badly just a little bit ago, and when combined with conference losses to Auburn, Vandy, and Ole Miss, it's only the Vols good work during the nonconference portion of the season that's keeping them on the 6 line. As far as the Arizona Wildcats are concerned, they need to stop the bleeding now. They're 1-4 in their last 5 outings, including a 28-point loss at home to North Carolina, a record for a Lute Olson coached Wildcat team. They fall from a 3 seed to a 6.

My 3 seeds for this week are Duke, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Clemson. Blue Devils and Jayhawks are rising, Cowboys are steady, especially after a Bedlam win on Monday night, and the Tigers may be fading as they get into the ACC schedule. Memphis, Virginia Tech, Marquette, and Indiana are all new occupants of the 4 line. The Tigers may face their biggest challenge in Conference USA Wednesday night when they travel to Orlando to play UCF. If they get by that game, they could run the table. This team isn't as loaded as last year's Elite Eight squad, but they're starting to gel at the right time. The Hokies, Golden Eagles, and Hoosiers are starting to show that they'll be consistent performers in their conference races. All three of them could be higher in six weeks.

On the other end of the at-large pool, Maryland and Syracuse are the two biggest tumblers of the week. The Terps fall down to a 12-seed, mostly as a result of about 12 other teams passing them. A convincing 15-point win over Georgia Tech Wednesday keeps them in for the week. Meanwhile, the Orange (aka "my other team") are giving me the fits that the Gators did at about this time last season. First, there was the near-collapse at home against Cincinnati on January 17 that nearly ruined my trivia team's outing that night. ("What's happening to the lead?" "How in the #$&* are they behind?") Then there were two contrasting road losses on consecutive Saturdays, the first at St. John's where the Orange barely had a chance, the second at Louisville in Coach Boeheim's 1,000th game that was another late collapse. A win of any sort against Notre Dame at the Dome on Tuesday should keep the Orange in. A loss and I fear there will be another Spring Break NIT game that should probably get moved to Manley Field House.

Here are the key facts about this week's bracket.

Bids by Conference
Big East - 8
ACC - 7
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 5
Missouri Valley - 4
Mountain West - 2

New At-Larges This Week
Louisville
UNLV

Off the Board At-Larges
LSU

Last Four In
Alabama
Louisville
Maryland
Syracuse

Last Four Out
BYU
Florida State
Illinois
Wichita State

Next Four Out
Drexel
Kansas State
Purdue
Vanderbilt

Tomorrow, ESPN announces the matchups for BracketBusters on February 16 and 17. Kyle Whelliston over at the MidMajority had a little contest to project the matchups. I struggled with a slow server and the fact that Mozilla hates Google Maps, but after a long hour and a half late last night, I put my picks in. (Insert jokes about how I need a life here. Believe me, I've heard them all before and a life is overrated!) I'll spare you a listing of all 51 matchups, but here are what I think will be the top 10.

1. Southern Illinois at Butler
2. Drexel at Creighton
3. Utah State at Missouri State
4. Winthrop at Wichita State
5. Northern Iowa at Nevada
6. Holy Cross at Virginia Commonwealth
7. Appalachian State at Indiana State
8. Illinois State at Ohio
9. Bradley at George Mason
10. Evansville at Toledo

I'll post a breakdown of the key matchups tomorrow night after the selection show. I won't post a bracket next week, as I'll be in Miami visiting friends for the Super Bowl. Bracket number five will arrive on Sunday, February 11.

2007-01-25T19:35:00.000-05:00

Banana Peel List - Part 2 Conferences M through Z

As promised, it's time to look at the races in the remainder of the one-bid conferences. I haven't seen many games during this extremely long work week, but have noticed that there are no changes at the top in the A through I leagues (except for High Point picking up a game in the win column on Winthrop in the Big South). It's good to know my analytical skills have a shelf life of 96 hours.

Metro Atlantic - The real story here is at the bottom, where defending tournament champion and perennial power Iona is winless. The Gaels aren't just winless in the conference, they've yet to beat a D-1 opponent. The last three have been absolutely heartbreaking losses too, swept on a road trip to my old stomping grounds, losing by 7 at Canisius and by 1 in OT at Niagara. (Maybe they took a trip to the Robert Moses Power Plant across the street and got distracted.) The third loss, by 3 at Fairfield.

Iona's troubles have opened the MAAC race up for four teams. Marist and Manhattan are tied for the lead at 7-2. The Foxes are a serious team. They again feature Jared Jordan, the nation's leader in assists and were the third place finisher at the Old Spice Classic at Disney over Thanksgiving weekend. Manhattan is doing nicely without Bobby Gonzalez, now at Seton Hall. Their biggest blemish is a loss on opening night to New Jersey Tech by 1, but they have a good win against Hofstra and an expected 18-point loss to Memphis. This week's MAAC bid holder Loyola-Maryland is now a half-game back thanks to a loss to the Jaspers Wednesday night. Siena is a full game back. Marist goes to Manhattan on Monday, where they'll play for first, if they can first get past Niagara and Canisius, respectively.

Mid-American - The "poster conference for an expanded tournament" most years appears to be in a down cycle this season. Sure, the usual suspects are in the race, but there's no real team creating an at-large buzz. The auto-bid belongs to Toledo right now. Rockets are unbeaten in the league, but 9-8 over all. The East looks far more competitive than the West at the moment. Western Michigan is the only team besides Toledo in the West with a conference record that's over 500. Meanwhile, in the East, traditional powers hold three of the top four spots. Akron is the surprise leader at 5-1, but Ohio, Miami U, and defending tournament champion Kent State are all a game back. Ohio has the highest RPI in the league, 77, but the Bobcats lack a marquee win. (Sorry, a 13-point decision over Cincinnati in a neutral-site date won't cut it this year.) This week's schedule includes lots of leader vs. bottom-feeder matchups, but Miami goes to Toledo Saturday.

Mid-Continent - As expected Oral Roberts and Oakland are unbeaten in the conference after 5 games, Valparaiso is two full games back in their last Mid-Con campaign before they head to the Horizon League next season. Golden Eagles and Grizzlies will break their tie tonight at the Mabee Center in Tulsa. The rematch will be February 24. I'm picking a split and a decisive rubber game in the conference final in Tulsa on March 6.

Mid-Eastern - Delaware State has a game and a half lead on Florida A&M and a full two game lead on Norfolk State. The Hornets are building a nice little dynasty in the MEAC. They also have a relatively high RPI of 105 at the moment. I doubt it will last though, since the next highest RPI in the league is Florida A&M's 219. (Four MEAC squads have RPIs of 300 or higher!) Delaware State really tested themselves in the pre-conference season, losing at Pitt, Wisconsin, Missouri State, Purdue, Marquette, Michigan, and Baylor. A 10-9 overall mark and no marquee wins means they'll have to win the MEAC tournament to get in. The Hornets defeated the third-place Spartans Monday and play FAMU in Tallahassee Saturday.

Northeast - Sacred Heart had the auto-bid in this week's bracket, but now Central Connecticut State has joined them in a first place tie. Fairleigh Dickinson is a game back in the loss column. However, the Pioneers and Blue Devils play a home and home on consecutive Saturdays that under normal circumstances could decide the conferences. However, Central Connecticut plays two games in the between the two Sacred Heart dates, Sacred Heart three! (including a home game with LIU the night before they welcome the Blue Devils to Fairfield)

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay currently leads Samford by a half-game. Tennessee Tech could be a threat, they're a game back of the Governors in the win column, but three back in the loss column. (Plus, AP has a 7 point home win over TTU already.) Austin Peay and Samford play for first Saturday in Clarksville.

Patriot - The Patriot League standings are pretty evenly distributed. Holy Cross is unbeaten in the league with an RPI of 65. Again, the Crusaders RPI number is evidence that the RPI can be a dangerous statistic when used by untrained basketball fans. Holy Cross has a few good losses (at Syracuse, Dayton, Duke, Providence, and George Mason), but their best non-league wins are at Harvard, Yale, and home to Siena. This statistical conundrum is just a further example why dropping the "secret sauce" from the RPI has devalued it. Rating opponents and opponents' opponents is great, but more credit needs to be given to wins than for just showing up at a tough place. Two-time defending champions Bucknell are a game behind the Crusaders at the moment, courtesy of a loss in Worcester. Holy Cross hosts third-placed Lehigh Friday night. Bucknell hosts Army Saturday.

Southern - As expected, the SoCon race is a competitive one. Davidson has the South Division lead and this week's auto bid with an 8-1 record. The College of Charleston appears to be resurgent under Bobby Cremins; they stand a game back. In the North Division, Appalachian State and UNC-Greensboro are tied for the lead, and they're also a game back of Davidson for the overall lead. No big tilts among the leaders this weekend, but Charleston is at Appalachian State on Monday.

Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is taking full advantage of its first year of conference membership. The program that had grown to be the nation's best independent now is unbeaten in the Southland. Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin are a game back in the West Division. Defending tournament champions Northwestern State are back on top of the East, with Southeastern Louisiana a half-game back. They meet Saturday afternoon in Natchitoches.

Southwestern - Jackson State and Texas Southern both lost their last outings (at Grambling and at Mississippi Valley State, respectively). So, Jackson State moves back into "first" based on their better overall record and RPI. In reality, the two sets of Tigers are also joined by Mississippi Valley State and Grambling (more Tigers) in a logjam, and Alcorn State is a game out in the loss column. Mississippi Valley State goes to both Jackson State (Saturday) and Grambling (Monday) in an attempt to break the tie.

Sun Belt - South Alabama and Western Kentucky, are currently tied atop the East Division. The Hilltoppers defeated the Jaguars by 22 in Bowling Green already this season. They meet in Mobile on February 8. Tonight, South Alabama hosts West leader Louisiana-Monroe.

West Coast - Santa Clara, Gonzaga, and St. Mary's share the league lead at 4-1. San Francisco is a game back. Gonzaga hosts San Francisco and fifth-placed San Diego this week. Santa Clara faces Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine at home. February 10 and 13, the Bulldogs host St. Mary's and Santa Clara in two games that will go a long way to determining the WCC regular season crown (and may mean big things for Gonzaga's at-large hopes).

New bracket Sunday evening.

2007-01-21T19:53:00.000-05:00

1 New 1 Seed + 2 New 2 Seeds = Bracket 3

It took to the end of the Marquette-Pittsburgh game to determine the final one seed for this week's bracket. Wisconsin can thank their in-state rivals for the privilege of being the fourth one seed this time, replacing Arizona. I was more than prepared to give the top spot in the Midwest (and have I mentioned how thankful I am that the NCAA has gone back to region names?) to the Panthers, but a home OT loss didn't sit well with me. They remain a two seed.

The aforementioned Arizona Wildcats dropped a thriller to Oregon at home, then got swept by the LA schools. At 4-4 in the Pac-10, they're a shaky three seed right now. Kansas also dropped to the three line after their loss at Texas Tech Saturday. The new two seeds, Texas A&M and Oregon, jumped all the way from line four. The Ducks are proving they're no fluke, while the Aggies are beating the teams they need to beat in the Big Twelve. Oklahoma State would've been a far better test for them Saturday had they not been worn out by Thursday's triple OT thriller against Texas.

Duke and Notre Dame stay steady as 4 seeds. Oklahoma State and Kentucky, both three's last week, join them.

The five through twelve lines were difficult to settle this week. I had to move quite a few teams around, but I still couldn't manage to move many deserving teams up this week, take for example, USC. There was even quite a bit of movement among the one-bid conferences this week. They form an almost unified front from line 12 down.

Before we turn our attention to the one-bid leagues (I'm going to peel a banana after this sentence. Yeah. That's it.), here's our breakdown of the multi-bid conferences

ACC - 7
Big East - 7
Pac-10 - 6
SEC - 6
Big 10 - 5
Big XII - 5
Missouri Valley - 4
West Coast - 2

Gonzaga lost at St. Mary's Monday, which cost them sole possession of first place in the West Coast Conference. Santa Clara has the auto bid this week, and the Bulldogs are barely in. For teams in one-bid leagues not named Gonzaga, a loss like that could be fatal to conference tournament seeding and NCAA hopes. That's why I talk about a banana peel list once conference play gets underway. I'll start with conferences A through I today, and go through the rest on Thursday. So, without further delay...

Banana Peel List
America East - Vermont (I'm getting the garlic and crucifix ready as an SU fan.) leads Albany, last year's champ, by a half game. Boston University, another preseason favourite, is a full game back. This league has been very balanced so far this season though, 3 further teams are within a game and a half. BU plays at Albany Wednesday, while the Catamounts try to hold serve, as they play at fourth-place Hartford Thursday night.

Atlantic 10 - This league is looking like a mess. I've put out three brackets, each one having only one A-10 team, and a different one each time. Rhode Island has the bid this week, but the Rams don't look like a solid at-large candidate. George Washington, Xavier, Dayton, and UMass all have at-large potential, but need to do some work first. The auto bid for next week could be on the line when Rhode Island hosts UMass Wednesday.

Atlantic Sun - Not sure what's so "Atlantic" about a conference dominated by three Tennessee schools. This week, East Tennessee broke the Nashville monopoly on the auto bid that dates back to last season. They lead Belmont by a game and Lipscomb by 2. A sweep Thursday and Saturday in Nashville will help the Bucs solidify their lead at the top.

Big Sky - Idaho State has been the surprise of the league, and they current lead perennial favourites Northern Arizona by a game in the loss column. Both teams have chances to slip up this week. Idaho State hosts Weber State, who's two games, back on Thursday. NAU hosts 3-3 Montana that night as well.

Big South - Winthrop is unbeaten, but doesn't have a secure lead at the top. They're tied with High Point at 5-0. Coastal Carolina is a game back. High Point goes to Coastal on Monday and hosts Winthrop on Thursday, so we'll know next week if the Panthers can take control of the league away from the Eagles and Chanticleers.

Big West - Long Beach State and Cal State-Fullerton have been swapping the auto bid so far this season, but a whole slew of teams are within two games in the loss column. Watch out for Pacific, they have games in hand! The 49ers and Titans meet again on Valentine's Day.i -

Colonial - There's a chance this league could get more than one in. VCU has dominated so far, but Drexel has some very good non-conference road wins (@ Temple, @ Villanova, and, gulp, @Syracuse). Hofstra, Old Dominion, and, yes, George Mason are still hanging around. VCU visits the Patriots Thursday in what could be a changing of the guard, for this season anyway. Saturday, the Rams go to Philly to play Drexel in a big one.

Conference USA - Not usually a one-bid league, but so far Memphis has been the only team to merit at-large consideration, and they're in first. UCF, UTEP, and Rice are all a game back in the loss column. Their RPI numbers are all in the three digits, however. 10-9 UAB currently has the best non-Memphis RPI at 63, but they've already lost three league games. UTEP-Rice Wednesday is the game of the week.

Horizon League - Butler and Wright State are tied for the top spot, and the Bulldogs get this week's auto bid because of their superior RPI number. They'll meet again at the Nutter Center on February 10, with Butler looking for the season sweep on the road. Loyola-Chicago and Illinois-Chicago are two games back in the loss column.

Ivy League - Penn's in charge right now in the one league where the Banana Peel List has real meaning since there's no postseason tournament. Through two games though, no one is out of it. (Princeton better hope so, after another slow 0-2 start under Joe Scott.) Penn has Big Five tilts with Temple and St. Joe's this week, so they'll have the auto bid next week as well.

As usual, some key facts about this week's bracket.

Last Four In
Gonzaga
Michigan
Missouri State
Stanford

Last Four Out
Bradley
California
Florida State
Providence

Next Four Out
Connecticut
Drexel
Kansas State
UNLV

Off the Board (At-Large Only)
UNLV
Wichita State

Banana Peel List, Part 2 Thursday, new bracket Sunday.

2007-01-14T12:51:00.000-05:00

Finally, Bracket #2

Well, it was a week later than planned (and honestly, it's a better bracket for it, if I do say so myself), but the second bracket of this 2006-2007 season is what you get when you take my Christmas Eve bracket, slap it around, and shake it down. In other words, since the conference season has started for everyone, we have quite a bit of upheaval outside of the top two seed lines. Seven of the top eight seeds from three weeks ago are still there. In fact, the one line is steady, and the two line has one newcomer, Pitt, who replaces Duke.

Lines three and four appear to have been hit by a bomb, perhaps the result of a team prank gone awry. Butler has fallen from a four to an 8, Purdue is completely gone. Kentucky (a 7 last time) and very much for real Clemson (a 9) are now 3s, while Oregon (an 11) and Texas A&M (an 8) are now on the 4s.

A word of advice to those looking for Connecticut and Illinois. You can stare at the bracket all you want, but you won't find them this week. The Huskies can't seem to beat anyone with any level of talent, and their RPI of 90 (!!) reflects that. The Illini are 1-2 in the Big Ten, and the win was a four-pointer over Iowa at home, which can't inspire much confidence in Urbana-Champaign.

Since there is a logjam in the middle of the power conferences (particularly the Big East and Big Ten this week), the breakdown by conference is a little more balanced than it's been over the past couple of seasons.

ACC - 7
Big East - 6
SEC - 6
Big Ten - 5
Big 12 - 5
Pac-10 - 5
Missouri Valley - 4
Horizon League - 2
Mountain West - 2
Western Athletic - 2

Two more at-large berths may open next week, as Wright State holds the automatic bid for the Horizon (instead of Butler) and New Mexico State has the one for the WAC (over Nevada). Nevada and New Mexico State meet for the first time Saturday night in Las Cruces. Butler already demolished the Raiders at Hinkle, but Wright State currently is a half-game up on the Bulldogs. The schedule should sort that race out.

Next week, will see the return of my Banana Peel list, with a bit more in-depth information on the one-bid leagues.

To wrap things up, here's some key info about who's in and out this week.

Last Four In
Georgetown
Nevada
Southern California
Wichita State

Last Four Out
Bradley
Drexel
Illinois
Stanford

Next Four Out
Connecticut
Missouri
Providence
Washington

Off the Board (At-Large Only)
Connecticut
Drexel
Illinois
Missouri
Providence
Purdue
Washington

Back to a weekly schedule, so expect to see a new bracket on Sunday, January 21.

2006-12-24T19:56:00.000-05:00

Holiday Greetings! It's Time for the First Bracket of the Year.

Well, the season's been underway for about a month and a half now. Even though most of the major conferences haven't started league play yet, I decided to take on the challenge of creating a bracket based almost entirely on non-conference games.

I now see why I never made an early season bracket before. It's really hard to separate teams out this early in the season. For example, since ACC and SEC teams are notorious for scheduling assorted baked goods in the nonconference portions of their schedules, every team in these leagues has a winning record. Since conference play hasn't really started, it's difficult to tell who really is good and who's RPI numbers are hyperinflated. You need to wait until teams play opponents that are roughly of their own strength to get an idea of what their records really mean. More on that in a bit.

If this is your first time at my blog, here's a little about my background. (Those of you who were here last year may want to skip this part.) I get to watch a lot of games thanks to Fox College Sports (I haven't ordered Full Court yet because I may be moving soon), so I've seen far more teams play than the usual fan. (Being single and having no life helps with that as well.)

I have broadcasting and poli sci bachelor's from Florida and a master's in poli sci from Milwaukee (aka UW-Milwaukee). I grew up wanting to go to Syracuse, but a lackluster scholarship offer killed that. Also, I may be the only SEC alum who actually likes the Pac-10. In fact, I'd rather watch Big East or Pac-10 games over the Big 10 (yuck) or most SEC teams (Have you ever sat down and watched teams like Ole Miss and South Carolina?).

Last year, I predicted 32 of the 34 at-larges. I missed Air Force and Utah State, who I had in my First Four Out group. I didn't do quite so well with seeding, 7 seeds correct (including the two 16 seeds in the play-in game.) Of the 37 seeds I missed, 19 were off by one line. 18 were off by more than one (13 by two lines, three by three, and one by four [Southern Illinois]).

Summary

As I said, this was a true challenge. I don't look at other brackets, like Joe Lunardi's, until after I'm done with my own. I suspect this is going to look very different than the four or five other bracket projections I have bookmarked in my browser.

You'll find the bracket by following this link.

After results, opponent quality is the most important factor I look at when assembling a bracket. This is why unbeaten UConn starts the year as a 6 seed. They haven't played anyone. Their difficult nonconference games are right before or interspersed in their Big East slate. Butler, meanwhile, has played lots of name, quality teams, and beaten most of them. They're a 4 seed. They probably should be higher, but I also tend to be a bit realistic when putting these together. I always think, "What would the committee do?". Since the committee typically undervalues the contributions of non-BCS schools to college basketball, Butler is a 4 this week.

I waited until after the Florida-Ohio State game to create my S-curve. I awarded the winner of that game the fourth 1 seed. The Gators sleptwalked through their game in Las Vegas against Kansas Thanksgiving weekend, then went out and lost to FSU the next Sunday. Ohio State's only real challenge was the loss to North Carolina in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. In other words, I needed to see who would rise to the competition better. Luckily for me, it turned out to be the champs.

I expect lots of shuffling between now and my next bracket. In the meantime, here's a summary of the season's opening attempt.

During yesterday's game, Billy Packer was gushing about the Pac-10. I'm not sure they're quite as strong as everyone is saying. Sure, Arizona and UCLA are my top two overall seeds, but my bracket isn't overrun with Pac-10 clubs. Only Oregon and Washington make it in beyond the top two, and they're 6 and 7 seeds, respectively.

The ACC has been strong so far, North Carolina, Duke, and Maryland all deserve their top 3 seeds based on their play so far. However, their next challenge will be to keep them. I think all three teams have inconsistency issues that may pose problems in conference play. Miami, Wake, and NC State are due for a fall though. Wins over weak nonconference foes may give your team a temporary confidence boost, but they don't provide the challenge you need to deal with the adversity you'll face in places like the Dean Dome and Cameron Indoor.

The Big East isn't the monster it was last year, yet. Louisville and DePaul have struggled more than expected, while Notre Dame and Providence have been real surprises. Marquette's win over Duke showed how much potential they have, but their loss to Wisconsin showed how far they have to go. Pitt needs to learn how to win on the road, while UConn and Syracuse need to actually play on the road. (I know, I know. It's hard to teach old coaches with 700+ career wins new tricks.)

The Big Ten's down cycle seems to be continuing. I saw Minnesota play three times at the Old Spice Classic, and the Gophers may be this year's worst major conference team. Ohio State is pretty good, if untested outside of their trips to Chapel Hill and Gainesville. Wisconsin is another team that will go far. Purdue has been a real positive surprise, Michigan and Iowa negative ones. Then there's the Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State group that's clogging up the middle of my bracket. As always, I expect there will be some separation as conference play starts.

The Big 12 features a potentially great Kansas team, an Oklahoma State team that has a lot of heart, a young, talented Texas team, a Texas A&M team trying to build on last year, a Missouri team playing with purpose under Mike Anderson, and a Texas Tech team trying to give Bob Knight more wins. Of these, it appears the Jayhawks are the only Final Four-type group. The Longhorns will be dangerous if their freshmen mature fast enough.

Most SEC teams have loaded up on creampuffs, but Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, and Kentucky can really play. LSU has been a bit disappointing. I expected more of an effort out of them against Washington on Wednesday. Arkansas has been solid, even without Ronnie Brewer. Their defence is sure to frustrate everyone in the conference this year. Georgia, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina could yet play their way in.

Outside of the major conferences, the Missouri Valley and Colonial are back, but not quite at their 2006 levels. Wichita State would've been a top 4 seed this week. Then they went out to Vegas and lost two games. If Southern Illinois had managed to beat Arkansas, I'm convinced they would've won the Old Spice Classic. Missouri State's win against Wisconsin will only look better as the year goes on. George Mason may not be as good as they were last year, but Old Dominion and Drexel are ready to carry the CAA flag into postseason play. Drexel's won three in a row, at Villanova, at Syracuse, and at Temple, while ODU's won at Georgetown.

Gonzaga is Gonzaga, taking on all comers and winning most.

Automatic Bid Rules

As for how I determined automatic bids, if a conference has started conference play, the conference leader gets the automatic bid. This is how Boston College has the ACC's over North Carolina or Duke. The Eagles are 1-0 in the league. If teams are tied at the top of the conference, the highest RPI prevails (for now). If the conference hasn't started league play, the highest RPI gets the auto bid.

Key Stats

Last Four In
Air Force
Oregon (even though they're unbeaten)
Providence
Syracuse

Last Four Out
Georgia
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Xavier

League Breakdown
7 ACC
7 Big East
6 Big 10
6 Big 12
6 SEC
4 Pac-10
3 Missouri Valley
2 Colonial
2 Mountain West

Since this is the holidays, I will leave you with the immortal words of Krusty the Clown.

"So, have a Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, Kwazy Kwanza, a Tip-Top Tet, and a solemn, dignified Ramadan."

Krusty did forget my personal favourite, Festivus, so let me saya Happy Festivus to my fellow Seinfeld fans out there.

I'll post again during the week. My next bracket will appear on Sunday, January 7.

Comments are more than welcome, and you can e-mail me at orangegator13@hotmail.com.