24 December 2006
Holiday Greetings! It's Time for the First Bracket of the Year.
Well, the season's been underway for about a month and a half now. Even though most of the major conferences haven't started league play yet, I decided to take on the challenge of creating a bracket based almost entirely on non-conference games.
I now see why I never made an early season bracket before. It's really hard to separate teams out this early in the season. For example, since ACC and SEC teams are notorious for scheduling assorted baked goods in the nonconference portions of their schedules, every team in these leagues has a winning record. Since conference play hasn't really started, it's difficult to tell who really is good and who's RPI numbers are hyperinflated. You need to wait until teams play opponents that are roughly of their own strength to get an idea of what their records really mean. More on that in a bit.
If this is your first time at my blog, here's a little about my background. (Those of you who were here last year may want to skip this part.) I get to watch a lot of games thanks to Fox College Sports (I haven't ordered Full Court yet because I may be moving soon), so I've seen far more teams play than the usual fan. (Being single and having no life helps with that as well.)
I have broadcasting and poli sci bachelor's from Florida and a master's in poli sci from Milwaukee (aka UW-Milwaukee). I grew up wanting to go to Syracuse, but a lackluster scholarship offer killed that. Also, I may be the only SEC alum who actually likes the Pac-10. In fact, I'd rather watch Big East or Pac-10 games over the Big 10 (yuck) or most SEC teams (Have you ever sat down and watched teams like Ole Miss and South Carolina?).
Last year, I predicted 32 of the 34 at-larges. I missed Air Force and Utah State, who I had in my First Four Out group. I didn't do quite so well with seeding, 7 seeds correct (including the two 16 seeds in the play-in game.) Of the 37 seeds I missed, 19 were off by one line. 18 were off by more than one (13 by two lines, three by three, and one by four [Southern Illinois]).
Summary
As I said, this was a true challenge. I don't look at other brackets, like Joe Lunardi's, until after I'm done with my own. I suspect this is going to look very different than the four or five other bracket projections I have bookmarked in my browser.
You'll find the bracket by following this link.
After results, opponent quality is the most important factor I look at when assembling a bracket. This is why unbeaten UConn starts the year as a 6 seed. They haven't played anyone. Their difficult nonconference games are right before or interspersed in their Big East slate. Butler, meanwhile, has played lots of name, quality teams, and beaten most of them. They're a 4 seed. They probably should be higher, but I also tend to be a bit realistic when putting these together. I always think, "What would the committee do?". Since the committee typically undervalues the contributions of non-BCS schools to college basketball, Butler is a 4 this week.
I waited until after the Florida-Ohio State game to create my S-curve. I awarded the winner of that game the fourth 1 seed. The Gators sleptwalked through their game in Las Vegas against Kansas Thanksgiving weekend, then went out and lost to FSU the next Sunday. Ohio State's only real challenge was the loss to North Carolina in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. In other words, I needed to see who would rise to the competition better. Luckily for me, it turned out to be the champs.
I expect lots of shuffling between now and my next bracket. In the meantime, here's a summary of the season's opening attempt.
During yesterday's game, Billy Packer was gushing about the Pac-10. I'm not sure they're quite as strong as everyone is saying. Sure, Arizona and UCLA are my top two overall seeds, but my bracket isn't overrun with Pac-10 clubs. Only Oregon and Washington make it in beyond the top two, and they're 6 and 7 seeds, respectively.
The ACC has been strong so far, North Carolina, Duke, and Maryland all deserve their top 3 seeds based on their play so far. However, their next challenge will be to keep them. I think all three teams have inconsistency issues that may pose problems in conference play. Miami, Wake, and NC State are due for a fall though. Wins over weak nonconference foes may give your team a temporary confidence boost, but they don't provide the challenge you need to deal with the adversity you'll face in places like the Dean Dome and Cameron Indoor.
The Big East isn't the monster it was last year, yet. Louisville and DePaul have struggled more than expected, while Notre Dame and Providence have been real surprises. Marquette's win over Duke showed how much potential they have, but their loss to Wisconsin showed how far they have to go. Pitt needs to learn how to win on the road, while UConn and Syracuse need to actually play on the road. (I know, I know. It's hard to teach old coaches with 700+ career wins new tricks.)
The Big Ten's down cycle seems to be continuing. I saw Minnesota play three times at the Old Spice Classic, and the Gophers may be this year's worst major conference team. Ohio State is pretty good, if untested outside of their trips to Chapel Hill and Gainesville. Wisconsin is another team that will go far. Purdue has been a real positive surprise, Michigan and Iowa negative ones. Then there's the Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State group that's clogging up the middle of my bracket. As always, I expect there will be some separation as conference play starts.
The Big 12 features a potentially great Kansas team, an Oklahoma State team that has a lot of heart, a young, talented Texas team, a Texas A&M team trying to build on last year, a Missouri team playing with purpose under Mike Anderson, and a Texas Tech team trying to give Bob Knight more wins. Of these, it appears the Jayhawks are the only Final Four-type group. The Longhorns will be dangerous if their freshmen mature fast enough.
Most SEC teams have loaded up on creampuffs, but Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, and Kentucky can really play. LSU has been a bit disappointing. I expected more of an effort out of them against Washington on Wednesday. Arkansas has been solid, even without Ronnie Brewer. Their defence is sure to frustrate everyone in the conference this year. Georgia, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina could yet play their way in.
Outside of the major conferences, the Missouri Valley and Colonial are back, but not quite at their 2006 levels. Wichita State would've been a top 4 seed this week. Then they went out to Vegas and lost two games. If Southern Illinois had managed to beat Arkansas, I'm convinced they would've won the Old Spice Classic. Missouri State's win against Wisconsin will only look better as the year goes on. George Mason may not be as good as they were last year, but Old Dominion and Drexel are ready to carry the CAA flag into postseason play. Drexel's won three in a row, at Villanova, at Syracuse, and at Temple, while ODU's won at Georgetown.
Gonzaga is Gonzaga, taking on all comers and winning most.
Automatic Bid Rules
As for how I determined automatic bids, if a conference has started conference play, the conference leader gets the automatic bid. This is how Boston College has the ACC's over North Carolina or Duke. The Eagles are 1-0 in the league. If teams are tied at the top of the conference, the highest RPI prevails (for now). If the conference hasn't started league play, the highest RPI gets the auto bid.
Key Stats
Last Four In
Air Force
Oregon (even though they're unbeaten)
Providence
Syracuse
Last Four Out
Georgia
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Xavier
League Breakdown
7 ACC
7 Big East
6 Big 10
6 Big 12
6 SEC
4 Pac-10
3 Missouri Valley
2 Colonial
2 Mountain West
Since this is the holidays, I will leave you with the immortal words of Krusty the Clown.
"So, have a Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, Kwazy Kwanza, a Tip-Top Tet, and a solemn, dignified Ramadan."
Krusty did forget my personal favourite, Festivus, so let me saya Happy Festivus to my fellow Seinfeld fans out there.
I'll post again during the week. My next bracket will appear on Sunday, January 7.
Comments are more than welcome, and you can e-mail me at orangegator13@hotmail.com.
Well, the season's been underway for about a month and a half now. Even though most of the major conferences haven't started league play yet, I decided to take on the challenge of creating a bracket based almost entirely on non-conference games.
I now see why I never made an early season bracket before. It's really hard to separate teams out this early in the season. For example, since ACC and SEC teams are notorious for scheduling assorted baked goods in the nonconference portions of their schedules, every team in these leagues has a winning record. Since conference play hasn't really started, it's difficult to tell who really is good and who's RPI numbers are hyperinflated. You need to wait until teams play opponents that are roughly of their own strength to get an idea of what their records really mean. More on that in a bit.
If this is your first time at my blog, here's a little about my background. (Those of you who were here last year may want to skip this part.) I get to watch a lot of games thanks to Fox College Sports (I haven't ordered Full Court yet because I may be moving soon), so I've seen far more teams play than the usual fan. (Being single and having no life helps with that as well.)
I have broadcasting and poli sci bachelor's from Florida and a master's in poli sci from Milwaukee (aka UW-Milwaukee). I grew up wanting to go to Syracuse, but a lackluster scholarship offer killed that. Also, I may be the only SEC alum who actually likes the Pac-10. In fact, I'd rather watch Big East or Pac-10 games over the Big 10 (yuck) or most SEC teams (Have you ever sat down and watched teams like Ole Miss and South Carolina?).
Last year, I predicted 32 of the 34 at-larges. I missed Air Force and Utah State, who I had in my First Four Out group. I didn't do quite so well with seeding, 7 seeds correct (including the two 16 seeds in the play-in game.) Of the 37 seeds I missed, 19 were off by one line. 18 were off by more than one (13 by two lines, three by three, and one by four [Southern Illinois]).
Summary
As I said, this was a true challenge. I don't look at other brackets, like Joe Lunardi's, until after I'm done with my own. I suspect this is going to look very different than the four or five other bracket projections I have bookmarked in my browser.
You'll find the bracket by following this link.
After results, opponent quality is the most important factor I look at when assembling a bracket. This is why unbeaten UConn starts the year as a 6 seed. They haven't played anyone. Their difficult nonconference games are right before or interspersed in their Big East slate. Butler, meanwhile, has played lots of name, quality teams, and beaten most of them. They're a 4 seed. They probably should be higher, but I also tend to be a bit realistic when putting these together. I always think, "What would the committee do?". Since the committee typically undervalues the contributions of non-BCS schools to college basketball, Butler is a 4 this week.
I waited until after the Florida-Ohio State game to create my S-curve. I awarded the winner of that game the fourth 1 seed. The Gators sleptwalked through their game in Las Vegas against Kansas Thanksgiving weekend, then went out and lost to FSU the next Sunday. Ohio State's only real challenge was the loss to North Carolina in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. In other words, I needed to see who would rise to the competition better. Luckily for me, it turned out to be the champs.
I expect lots of shuffling between now and my next bracket. In the meantime, here's a summary of the season's opening attempt.
During yesterday's game, Billy Packer was gushing about the Pac-10. I'm not sure they're quite as strong as everyone is saying. Sure, Arizona and UCLA are my top two overall seeds, but my bracket isn't overrun with Pac-10 clubs. Only Oregon and Washington make it in beyond the top two, and they're 6 and 7 seeds, respectively.
The ACC has been strong so far, North Carolina, Duke, and Maryland all deserve their top 3 seeds based on their play so far. However, their next challenge will be to keep them. I think all three teams have inconsistency issues that may pose problems in conference play. Miami, Wake, and NC State are due for a fall though. Wins over weak nonconference foes may give your team a temporary confidence boost, but they don't provide the challenge you need to deal with the adversity you'll face in places like the Dean Dome and Cameron Indoor.
The Big East isn't the monster it was last year, yet. Louisville and DePaul have struggled more than expected, while Notre Dame and Providence have been real surprises. Marquette's win over Duke showed how much potential they have, but their loss to Wisconsin showed how far they have to go. Pitt needs to learn how to win on the road, while UConn and Syracuse need to actually play on the road. (I know, I know. It's hard to teach old coaches with 700+ career wins new tricks.)
The Big Ten's down cycle seems to be continuing. I saw Minnesota play three times at the Old Spice Classic, and the Gophers may be this year's worst major conference team. Ohio State is pretty good, if untested outside of their trips to Chapel Hill and Gainesville. Wisconsin is another team that will go far. Purdue has been a real positive surprise, Michigan and Iowa negative ones. Then there's the Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State group that's clogging up the middle of my bracket. As always, I expect there will be some separation as conference play starts.
The Big 12 features a potentially great Kansas team, an Oklahoma State team that has a lot of heart, a young, talented Texas team, a Texas A&M team trying to build on last year, a Missouri team playing with purpose under Mike Anderson, and a Texas Tech team trying to give Bob Knight more wins. Of these, it appears the Jayhawks are the only Final Four-type group. The Longhorns will be dangerous if their freshmen mature fast enough.
Most SEC teams have loaded up on creampuffs, but Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, and Kentucky can really play. LSU has been a bit disappointing. I expected more of an effort out of them against Washington on Wednesday. Arkansas has been solid, even without Ronnie Brewer. Their defence is sure to frustrate everyone in the conference this year. Georgia, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina could yet play their way in.
Outside of the major conferences, the Missouri Valley and Colonial are back, but not quite at their 2006 levels. Wichita State would've been a top 4 seed this week. Then they went out to Vegas and lost two games. If Southern Illinois had managed to beat Arkansas, I'm convinced they would've won the Old Spice Classic. Missouri State's win against Wisconsin will only look better as the year goes on. George Mason may not be as good as they were last year, but Old Dominion and Drexel are ready to carry the CAA flag into postseason play. Drexel's won three in a row, at Villanova, at Syracuse, and at Temple, while ODU's won at Georgetown.
Gonzaga is Gonzaga, taking on all comers and winning most.
Automatic Bid Rules
As for how I determined automatic bids, if a conference has started conference play, the conference leader gets the automatic bid. This is how Boston College has the ACC's over North Carolina or Duke. The Eagles are 1-0 in the league. If teams are tied at the top of the conference, the highest RPI prevails (for now). If the conference hasn't started league play, the highest RPI gets the auto bid.
Key Stats
Last Four In
Air Force
Oregon (even though they're unbeaten)
Providence
Syracuse
Last Four Out
Georgia
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Xavier
League Breakdown
7 ACC
7 Big East
6 Big 10
6 Big 12
6 SEC
4 Pac-10
3 Missouri Valley
2 Colonial
2 Mountain West
Since this is the holidays, I will leave you with the immortal words of Krusty the Clown.
"So, have a Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, Kwazy Kwanza, a Tip-Top Tet, and a solemn, dignified Ramadan."
Krusty did forget my personal favourite, Festivus, so let me saya Happy Festivus to my fellow Seinfeld fans out there.
I'll post again during the week. My next bracket will appear on Sunday, January 7.
Comments are more than welcome, and you can e-mail me at orangegator13@hotmail.com.
# posted by Chris @ 19:56 
