21 January 2007
1 New 1 Seed + 2 New 2 Seeds = Bracket 3
It took to the end of the Marquette-Pittsburgh game to determine the final one seed for this week's bracket. Wisconsin can thank their in-state rivals for the privilege of being the fourth one seed this time, replacing Arizona. I was more than prepared to give the top spot in the Midwest (and have I mentioned how thankful I am that the NCAA has gone back to region names?) to the Panthers, but a home OT loss didn't sit well with me. They remain a two seed.
The aforementioned Arizona Wildcats dropped a thriller to Oregon at home, then got swept by the LA schools. At 4-4 in the Pac-10, they're a shaky three seed right now. Kansas also dropped to the three line after their loss at Texas Tech Saturday. The new two seeds, Texas A&M and Oregon, jumped all the way from line four. The Ducks are proving they're no fluke, while the Aggies are beating the teams they need to beat in the Big Twelve. Oklahoma State would've been a far better test for them Saturday had they not been worn out by Thursday's triple OT thriller against Texas.
Duke and Notre Dame stay steady as 4 seeds. Oklahoma State and Kentucky, both three's last week, join them.
The five through twelve lines were difficult to settle this week. I had to move quite a few teams around, but I still couldn't manage to move many deserving teams up this week, take for example, USC. There was even quite a bit of movement among the one-bid conferences this week. They form an almost unified front from line 12 down.
Before we turn our attention to the one-bid leagues (I'm going to peel a banana after this sentence. Yeah. That's it.), here's our breakdown of the multi-bid conferences
ACC - 7
Big East - 7
Pac-10 - 6
SEC - 6
Big 10 - 5
Big XII - 5
Missouri Valley - 4
West Coast - 2
Gonzaga lost at St. Mary's Monday, which cost them sole possession of first place in the West Coast Conference. Santa Clara has the auto bid this week, and the Bulldogs are barely in. For teams in one-bid leagues not named Gonzaga, a loss like that could be fatal to conference tournament seeding and NCAA hopes. That's why I talk about a banana peel list once conference play gets underway. I'll start with conferences A through I today, and go through the rest on Thursday. So, without further delay...
Banana Peel List
America East - Vermont (I'm getting the garlic and crucifix ready as an SU fan.) leads Albany, last year's champ, by a half game. Boston University, another preseason favourite, is a full game back. This league has been very balanced so far this season though, 3 further teams are within a game and a half. BU plays at Albany Wednesday, while the Catamounts try to hold serve, as they play at fourth-place Hartford Thursday night.
Atlantic 10 - This league is looking like a mess. I've put out three brackets, each one having only one A-10 team, and a different one each time. Rhode Island has the bid this week, but the Rams don't look like a solid at-large candidate. George Washington, Xavier, Dayton, and UMass all have at-large potential, but need to do some work first. The auto bid for next week could be on the line when Rhode Island hosts UMass Wednesday.
Atlantic Sun - Not sure what's so "Atlantic" about a conference dominated by three Tennessee schools. This week, East Tennessee broke the Nashville monopoly on the auto bid that dates back to last season. They lead Belmont by a game and Lipscomb by 2. A sweep Thursday and Saturday in Nashville will help the Bucs solidify their lead at the top.
Big Sky - Idaho State has been the surprise of the league, and they current lead perennial favourites Northern Arizona by a game in the loss column. Both teams have chances to slip up this week. Idaho State hosts Weber State, who's two games, back on Thursday. NAU hosts 3-3 Montana that night as well.
Big South - Winthrop is unbeaten, but doesn't have a secure lead at the top. They're tied with High Point at 5-0. Coastal Carolina is a game back. High Point goes to Coastal on Monday and hosts Winthrop on Thursday, so we'll know next week if the Panthers can take control of the league away from the Eagles and Chanticleers.
Big West - Long Beach State and Cal State-Fullerton have been swapping the auto bid so far this season, but a whole slew of teams are within two games in the loss column. Watch out for Pacific, they have games in hand! The 49ers and Titans meet again on Valentine's Day.i -
Colonial - There's a chance this league could get more than one in. VCU has dominated so far, but Drexel has some very good non-conference road wins (@ Temple, @ Villanova, and, gulp, @Syracuse). Hofstra, Old Dominion, and, yes, George Mason are still hanging around. VCU visits the Patriots Thursday in what could be a changing of the guard, for this season anyway. Saturday, the Rams go to Philly to play Drexel in a big one.
Conference USA - Not usually a one-bid league, but so far Memphis has been the only team to merit at-large consideration, and they're in first. UCF, UTEP, and Rice are all a game back in the loss column. Their RPI numbers are all in the three digits, however. 10-9 UAB currently has the best non-Memphis RPI at 63, but they've already lost three league games. UTEP-Rice Wednesday is the game of the week.
Horizon League - Butler and Wright State are tied for the top spot, and the Bulldogs get this week's auto bid because of their superior RPI number. They'll meet again at the Nutter Center on February 10, with Butler looking for the season sweep on the road. Loyola-Chicago and Illinois-Chicago are two games back in the loss column.
Ivy League - Penn's in charge right now in the one league where the Banana Peel List has real meaning since there's no postseason tournament. Through two games though, no one is out of it. (Princeton better hope so, after another slow 0-2 start under Joe Scott.) Penn has Big Five tilts with Temple and St. Joe's this week, so they'll have the auto bid next week as well.
As usual, some key facts about this week's bracket.
Last Four In
Gonzaga
Michigan
Missouri State
Stanford
Last Four Out
Bradley
California
Florida State
Providence
Next Four Out
Connecticut
Drexel
Kansas State
UNLV
Off the Board (At-Large Only)
UNLV
Wichita State
Banana Peel List, Part 2 Thursday, new bracket Sunday.
It took to the end of the Marquette-Pittsburgh game to determine the final one seed for this week's bracket. Wisconsin can thank their in-state rivals for the privilege of being the fourth one seed this time, replacing Arizona. I was more than prepared to give the top spot in the Midwest (and have I mentioned how thankful I am that the NCAA has gone back to region names?) to the Panthers, but a home OT loss didn't sit well with me. They remain a two seed.
The aforementioned Arizona Wildcats dropped a thriller to Oregon at home, then got swept by the LA schools. At 4-4 in the Pac-10, they're a shaky three seed right now. Kansas also dropped to the three line after their loss at Texas Tech Saturday. The new two seeds, Texas A&M and Oregon, jumped all the way from line four. The Ducks are proving they're no fluke, while the Aggies are beating the teams they need to beat in the Big Twelve. Oklahoma State would've been a far better test for them Saturday had they not been worn out by Thursday's triple OT thriller against Texas.
Duke and Notre Dame stay steady as 4 seeds. Oklahoma State and Kentucky, both three's last week, join them.
The five through twelve lines were difficult to settle this week. I had to move quite a few teams around, but I still couldn't manage to move many deserving teams up this week, take for example, USC. There was even quite a bit of movement among the one-bid conferences this week. They form an almost unified front from line 12 down.
Before we turn our attention to the one-bid leagues (I'm going to peel a banana after this sentence. Yeah. That's it.), here's our breakdown of the multi-bid conferences
ACC - 7
Big East - 7
Pac-10 - 6
SEC - 6
Big 10 - 5
Big XII - 5
Missouri Valley - 4
West Coast - 2
Gonzaga lost at St. Mary's Monday, which cost them sole possession of first place in the West Coast Conference. Santa Clara has the auto bid this week, and the Bulldogs are barely in. For teams in one-bid leagues not named Gonzaga, a loss like that could be fatal to conference tournament seeding and NCAA hopes. That's why I talk about a banana peel list once conference play gets underway. I'll start with conferences A through I today, and go through the rest on Thursday. So, without further delay...
Banana Peel List
America East - Vermont (I'm getting the garlic and crucifix ready as an SU fan.) leads Albany, last year's champ, by a half game. Boston University, another preseason favourite, is a full game back. This league has been very balanced so far this season though, 3 further teams are within a game and a half. BU plays at Albany Wednesday, while the Catamounts try to hold serve, as they play at fourth-place Hartford Thursday night.
Atlantic 10 - This league is looking like a mess. I've put out three brackets, each one having only one A-10 team, and a different one each time. Rhode Island has the bid this week, but the Rams don't look like a solid at-large candidate. George Washington, Xavier, Dayton, and UMass all have at-large potential, but need to do some work first. The auto bid for next week could be on the line when Rhode Island hosts UMass Wednesday.
Atlantic Sun - Not sure what's so "Atlantic" about a conference dominated by three Tennessee schools. This week, East Tennessee broke the Nashville monopoly on the auto bid that dates back to last season. They lead Belmont by a game and Lipscomb by 2. A sweep Thursday and Saturday in Nashville will help the Bucs solidify their lead at the top.
Big Sky - Idaho State has been the surprise of the league, and they current lead perennial favourites Northern Arizona by a game in the loss column. Both teams have chances to slip up this week. Idaho State hosts Weber State, who's two games, back on Thursday. NAU hosts 3-3 Montana that night as well.
Big South - Winthrop is unbeaten, but doesn't have a secure lead at the top. They're tied with High Point at 5-0. Coastal Carolina is a game back. High Point goes to Coastal on Monday and hosts Winthrop on Thursday, so we'll know next week if the Panthers can take control of the league away from the Eagles and Chanticleers.
Big West - Long Beach State and Cal State-Fullerton have been swapping the auto bid so far this season, but a whole slew of teams are within two games in the loss column. Watch out for Pacific, they have games in hand! The 49ers and Titans meet again on Valentine's Day.i -
Colonial - There's a chance this league could get more than one in. VCU has dominated so far, but Drexel has some very good non-conference road wins (@ Temple, @ Villanova, and, gulp, @Syracuse). Hofstra, Old Dominion, and, yes, George Mason are still hanging around. VCU visits the Patriots Thursday in what could be a changing of the guard, for this season anyway. Saturday, the Rams go to Philly to play Drexel in a big one.
Conference USA - Not usually a one-bid league, but so far Memphis has been the only team to merit at-large consideration, and they're in first. UCF, UTEP, and Rice are all a game back in the loss column. Their RPI numbers are all in the three digits, however. 10-9 UAB currently has the best non-Memphis RPI at 63, but they've already lost three league games. UTEP-Rice Wednesday is the game of the week.
Horizon League - Butler and Wright State are tied for the top spot, and the Bulldogs get this week's auto bid because of their superior RPI number. They'll meet again at the Nutter Center on February 10, with Butler looking for the season sweep on the road. Loyola-Chicago and Illinois-Chicago are two games back in the loss column.
Ivy League - Penn's in charge right now in the one league where the Banana Peel List has real meaning since there's no postseason tournament. Through two games though, no one is out of it. (Princeton better hope so, after another slow 0-2 start under Joe Scott.) Penn has Big Five tilts with Temple and St. Joe's this week, so they'll have the auto bid next week as well.
As usual, some key facts about this week's bracket.
Last Four In
Gonzaga
Michigan
Missouri State
Stanford
Last Four Out
Bradley
California
Florida State
Providence
Next Four Out
Connecticut
Drexel
Kansas State
UNLV
Off the Board (At-Large Only)
UNLV
Wichita State
Banana Peel List, Part 2 Thursday, new bracket Sunday.
# posted by Chris @ 19:53 
