25 January 2007
Banana Peel List - Part 2 Conferences M through Z
As promised, it's time to look at the races in the remainder of the one-bid conferences. I haven't seen many games during this extremely long work week, but have noticed that there are no changes at the top in the A through I leagues (except for High Point picking up a game in the win column on Winthrop in the Big South). It's good to know my analytical skills have a shelf life of 96 hours.
Metro Atlantic - The real story here is at the bottom, where defending tournament champion and perennial power Iona is winless. The Gaels aren't just winless in the conference, they've yet to beat a D-1 opponent. The last three have been absolutely heartbreaking losses too, swept on a road trip to my old stomping grounds, losing by 7 at Canisius and by 1 in OT at Niagara. (Maybe they took a trip to the Robert Moses Power Plant across the street and got distracted.) The third loss, by 3 at Fairfield.
Iona's troubles have opened the MAAC race up for four teams. Marist and Manhattan are tied for the lead at 7-2. The Foxes are a serious team. They again feature Jared Jordan, the nation's leader in assists and were the third place finisher at the Old Spice Classic at Disney over Thanksgiving weekend. Manhattan is doing nicely without Bobby Gonzalez, now at Seton Hall. Their biggest blemish is a loss on opening night to New Jersey Tech by 1, but they have a good win against Hofstra and an expected 18-point loss to Memphis. This week's MAAC bid holder Loyola-Maryland is now a half-game back thanks to a loss to the Jaspers Wednesday night. Siena is a full game back. Marist goes to Manhattan on Monday, where they'll play for first, if they can first get past Niagara and Canisius, respectively.
Mid-American - The "poster conference for an expanded tournament" most years appears to be in a down cycle this season. Sure, the usual suspects are in the race, but there's no real team creating an at-large buzz. The auto-bid belongs to Toledo right now. Rockets are unbeaten in the league, but 9-8 over all. The East looks far more competitive than the West at the moment. Western Michigan is the only team besides Toledo in the West with a conference record that's over 500. Meanwhile, in the East, traditional powers hold three of the top four spots. Akron is the surprise leader at 5-1, but Ohio, Miami U, and defending tournament champion Kent State are all a game back. Ohio has the highest RPI in the league, 77, but the Bobcats lack a marquee win. (Sorry, a 13-point decision over Cincinnati in a neutral-site date won't cut it this year.) This week's schedule includes lots of leader vs. bottom-feeder matchups, but Miami goes to Toledo Saturday.
Mid-Continent - As expected Oral Roberts and Oakland are unbeaten in the conference after 5 games, Valparaiso is two full games back in their last Mid-Con campaign before they head to the Horizon League next season. Golden Eagles and Grizzlies will break their tie tonight at the Mabee Center in Tulsa. The rematch will be February 24. I'm picking a split and a decisive rubber game in the conference final in Tulsa on March 6.
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State has a game and a half lead on Florida A&M and a full two game lead on Norfolk State. The Hornets are building a nice little dynasty in the MEAC. They also have a relatively high RPI of 105 at the moment. I doubt it will last though, since the next highest RPI in the league is Florida A&M's 219. (Four MEAC squads have RPIs of 300 or higher!) Delaware State really tested themselves in the pre-conference season, losing at Pitt, Wisconsin, Missouri State, Purdue, Marquette, Michigan, and Baylor. A 10-9 overall mark and no marquee wins means they'll have to win the MEAC tournament to get in. The Hornets defeated the third-place Spartans Monday and play FAMU in Tallahassee Saturday.
Northeast - Sacred Heart had the auto-bid in this week's bracket, but now Central Connecticut State has joined them in a first place tie. Fairleigh Dickinson is a game back in the loss column. However, the Pioneers and Blue Devils play a home and home on consecutive Saturdays that under normal circumstances could decide the conferences. However, Central Connecticut plays two games in the between the two Sacred Heart dates, Sacred Heart three! (including a home game with LIU the night before they welcome the Blue Devils to Fairfield)
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay currently leads Samford by a half-game. Tennessee Tech could be a threat, they're a game back of the Governors in the win column, but three back in the loss column. (Plus, AP has a 7 point home win over TTU already.) Austin Peay and Samford play for first Saturday in Clarksville.
Patriot - The Patriot League standings are pretty evenly distributed. Holy Cross is unbeaten in the league with an RPI of 65. Again, the Crusaders RPI number is evidence that the RPI can be a dangerous statistic when used by untrained basketball fans. Holy Cross has a few good losses (at Syracuse, Dayton, Duke, Providence, and George Mason), but their best non-league wins are at Harvard, Yale, and home to Siena. This statistical conundrum is just a further example why dropping the "secret sauce" from the RPI has devalued it. Rating opponents and opponents' opponents is great, but more credit needs to be given to wins than for just showing up at a tough place. Two-time defending champions Bucknell are a game behind the Crusaders at the moment, courtesy of a loss in Worcester. Holy Cross hosts third-placed Lehigh Friday night. Bucknell hosts Army Saturday.
Southern - As expected, the SoCon race is a competitive one. Davidson has the South Division lead and this week's auto bid with an 8-1 record. The College of Charleston appears to be resurgent under Bobby Cremins; they stand a game back. In the North Division, Appalachian State and UNC-Greensboro are tied for the lead, and they're also a game back of Davidson for the overall lead. No big tilts among the leaders this weekend, but Charleston is at Appalachian State on Monday.
Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is taking full advantage of its first year of conference membership. The program that had grown to be the nation's best independent now is unbeaten in the Southland. Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin are a game back in the West Division. Defending tournament champions Northwestern State are back on top of the East, with Southeastern Louisiana a half-game back. They meet Saturday afternoon in Natchitoches.
Southwestern - Jackson State and Texas Southern both lost their last outings (at Grambling and at Mississippi Valley State, respectively). So, Jackson State moves back into "first" based on their better overall record and RPI. In reality, the two sets of Tigers are also joined by Mississippi Valley State and Grambling (more Tigers) in a logjam, and Alcorn State is a game out in the loss column. Mississippi Valley State goes to both Jackson State (Saturday) and Grambling (Monday) in an attempt to break the tie.
Sun Belt - South Alabama and Western Kentucky, are currently tied atop the East Division. The Hilltoppers defeated the Jaguars by 22 in Bowling Green already this season. They meet in Mobile on February 8. Tonight, South Alabama hosts West leader Louisiana-Monroe.
West Coast - Santa Clara, Gonzaga, and St. Mary's share the league lead at 4-1. San Francisco is a game back. Gonzaga hosts San Francisco and fifth-placed San Diego this week. Santa Clara faces Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine at home. February 10 and 13, the Bulldogs host St. Mary's and Santa Clara in two games that will go a long way to determining the WCC regular season crown (and may mean big things for Gonzaga's at-large hopes).
New bracket Sunday evening.
As promised, it's time to look at the races in the remainder of the one-bid conferences. I haven't seen many games during this extremely long work week, but have noticed that there are no changes at the top in the A through I leagues (except for High Point picking up a game in the win column on Winthrop in the Big South). It's good to know my analytical skills have a shelf life of 96 hours.
Metro Atlantic - The real story here is at the bottom, where defending tournament champion and perennial power Iona is winless. The Gaels aren't just winless in the conference, they've yet to beat a D-1 opponent. The last three have been absolutely heartbreaking losses too, swept on a road trip to my old stomping grounds, losing by 7 at Canisius and by 1 in OT at Niagara. (Maybe they took a trip to the Robert Moses Power Plant across the street and got distracted.) The third loss, by 3 at Fairfield.
Iona's troubles have opened the MAAC race up for four teams. Marist and Manhattan are tied for the lead at 7-2. The Foxes are a serious team. They again feature Jared Jordan, the nation's leader in assists and were the third place finisher at the Old Spice Classic at Disney over Thanksgiving weekend. Manhattan is doing nicely without Bobby Gonzalez, now at Seton Hall. Their biggest blemish is a loss on opening night to New Jersey Tech by 1, but they have a good win against Hofstra and an expected 18-point loss to Memphis. This week's MAAC bid holder Loyola-Maryland is now a half-game back thanks to a loss to the Jaspers Wednesday night. Siena is a full game back. Marist goes to Manhattan on Monday, where they'll play for first, if they can first get past Niagara and Canisius, respectively.
Mid-American - The "poster conference for an expanded tournament" most years appears to be in a down cycle this season. Sure, the usual suspects are in the race, but there's no real team creating an at-large buzz. The auto-bid belongs to Toledo right now. Rockets are unbeaten in the league, but 9-8 over all. The East looks far more competitive than the West at the moment. Western Michigan is the only team besides Toledo in the West with a conference record that's over 500. Meanwhile, in the East, traditional powers hold three of the top four spots. Akron is the surprise leader at 5-1, but Ohio, Miami U, and defending tournament champion Kent State are all a game back. Ohio has the highest RPI in the league, 77, but the Bobcats lack a marquee win. (Sorry, a 13-point decision over Cincinnati in a neutral-site date won't cut it this year.) This week's schedule includes lots of leader vs. bottom-feeder matchups, but Miami goes to Toledo Saturday.
Mid-Continent - As expected Oral Roberts and Oakland are unbeaten in the conference after 5 games, Valparaiso is two full games back in their last Mid-Con campaign before they head to the Horizon League next season. Golden Eagles and Grizzlies will break their tie tonight at the Mabee Center in Tulsa. The rematch will be February 24. I'm picking a split and a decisive rubber game in the conference final in Tulsa on March 6.
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State has a game and a half lead on Florida A&M and a full two game lead on Norfolk State. The Hornets are building a nice little dynasty in the MEAC. They also have a relatively high RPI of 105 at the moment. I doubt it will last though, since the next highest RPI in the league is Florida A&M's 219. (Four MEAC squads have RPIs of 300 or higher!) Delaware State really tested themselves in the pre-conference season, losing at Pitt, Wisconsin, Missouri State, Purdue, Marquette, Michigan, and Baylor. A 10-9 overall mark and no marquee wins means they'll have to win the MEAC tournament to get in. The Hornets defeated the third-place Spartans Monday and play FAMU in Tallahassee Saturday.
Northeast - Sacred Heart had the auto-bid in this week's bracket, but now Central Connecticut State has joined them in a first place tie. Fairleigh Dickinson is a game back in the loss column. However, the Pioneers and Blue Devils play a home and home on consecutive Saturdays that under normal circumstances could decide the conferences. However, Central Connecticut plays two games in the between the two Sacred Heart dates, Sacred Heart three! (including a home game with LIU the night before they welcome the Blue Devils to Fairfield)
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay currently leads Samford by a half-game. Tennessee Tech could be a threat, they're a game back of the Governors in the win column, but three back in the loss column. (Plus, AP has a 7 point home win over TTU already.) Austin Peay and Samford play for first Saturday in Clarksville.
Patriot - The Patriot League standings are pretty evenly distributed. Holy Cross is unbeaten in the league with an RPI of 65. Again, the Crusaders RPI number is evidence that the RPI can be a dangerous statistic when used by untrained basketball fans. Holy Cross has a few good losses (at Syracuse, Dayton, Duke, Providence, and George Mason), but their best non-league wins are at Harvard, Yale, and home to Siena. This statistical conundrum is just a further example why dropping the "secret sauce" from the RPI has devalued it. Rating opponents and opponents' opponents is great, but more credit needs to be given to wins than for just showing up at a tough place. Two-time defending champions Bucknell are a game behind the Crusaders at the moment, courtesy of a loss in Worcester. Holy Cross hosts third-placed Lehigh Friday night. Bucknell hosts Army Saturday.
Southern - As expected, the SoCon race is a competitive one. Davidson has the South Division lead and this week's auto bid with an 8-1 record. The College of Charleston appears to be resurgent under Bobby Cremins; they stand a game back. In the North Division, Appalachian State and UNC-Greensboro are tied for the lead, and they're also a game back of Davidson for the overall lead. No big tilts among the leaders this weekend, but Charleston is at Appalachian State on Monday.
Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is taking full advantage of its first year of conference membership. The program that had grown to be the nation's best independent now is unbeaten in the Southland. Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin are a game back in the West Division. Defending tournament champions Northwestern State are back on top of the East, with Southeastern Louisiana a half-game back. They meet Saturday afternoon in Natchitoches.
Southwestern - Jackson State and Texas Southern both lost their last outings (at Grambling and at Mississippi Valley State, respectively). So, Jackson State moves back into "first" based on their better overall record and RPI. In reality, the two sets of Tigers are also joined by Mississippi Valley State and Grambling (more Tigers) in a logjam, and Alcorn State is a game out in the loss column. Mississippi Valley State goes to both Jackson State (Saturday) and Grambling (Monday) in an attempt to break the tie.
Sun Belt - South Alabama and Western Kentucky, are currently tied atop the East Division. The Hilltoppers defeated the Jaguars by 22 in Bowling Green already this season. They meet in Mobile on February 8. Tonight, South Alabama hosts West leader Louisiana-Monroe.
West Coast - Santa Clara, Gonzaga, and St. Mary's share the league lead at 4-1. San Francisco is a game back. Gonzaga hosts San Francisco and fifth-placed San Diego this week. Santa Clara faces Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine at home. February 10 and 13, the Bulldogs host St. Mary's and Santa Clara in two games that will go a long way to determining the WCC regular season crown (and may mean big things for Gonzaga's at-large hopes).
New bracket Sunday evening.
# posted by Chris @ 19:35 
