28 January 2007
Six Weeks Until Selection Sunday
This is the time I expect to see lots of movement in my bracket, and indeed, outside of lines 1 and 2 of my S-Curve this week, I had to do a lot of shuffling. Surprisingly, only one at-large team fell out (and that team, LSU, is a surprise, but I'll chalk it up to the inconsistency of the SEC West as a whole). There are two newcomers this week, as the bracket gained an at-large bid when Gonzaga retook the West Coast's auto bid last night.
While lines 1 and 2 are static, the 3 and 4 seeds this week look very different. Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arizona paid dearly for their recent inconsistency. Kentucky drops to a 5 after losses to Vanderbilt and Georgia. Tennessee lost to the Wildcats badly just a little bit ago, and when combined with conference losses to Auburn, Vandy, and Ole Miss, it's only the Vols good work during the nonconference portion of the season that's keeping them on the 6 line. As far as the Arizona Wildcats are concerned, they need to stop the bleeding now. They're 1-4 in their last 5 outings, including a 28-point loss at home to North Carolina, a record for a Lute Olson coached Wildcat team. They fall from a 3 seed to a 6.
My 3 seeds for this week are Duke, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Clemson. Blue Devils and Jayhawks are rising, Cowboys are steady, especially after a Bedlam win on Monday night, and the Tigers may be fading as they get into the ACC schedule. Memphis, Virginia Tech, Marquette, and Indiana are all new occupants of the 4 line. The Tigers may face their biggest challenge in Conference USA Wednesday night when they travel to Orlando to play UCF. If they get by that game, they could run the table. This team isn't as loaded as last year's Elite Eight squad, but they're starting to gel at the right time. The Hokies, Golden Eagles, and Hoosiers are starting to show that they'll be consistent performers in their conference races. All three of them could be higher in six weeks.
On the other end of the at-large pool, Maryland and Syracuse are the two biggest tumblers of the week. The Terps fall down to a 12-seed, mostly as a result of about 12 other teams passing them. A convincing 15-point win over Georgia Tech Wednesday keeps them in for the week. Meanwhile, the Orange (aka "my other team") are giving me the fits that the Gators did at about this time last season. First, there was the near-collapse at home against Cincinnati on January 17 that nearly ruined my trivia team's outing that night. ("What's happening to the lead?" "How in the #$&* are they behind?") Then there were two contrasting road losses on consecutive Saturdays, the first at St. John's where the Orange barely had a chance, the second at Louisville in Coach Boeheim's 1,000th game that was another late collapse. A win of any sort against Notre Dame at the Dome on Tuesday should keep the Orange in. A loss and I fear there will be another Spring Break NIT game that should probably get moved to Manley Field House.
Here are the key facts about this week's bracket.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 8
ACC - 7
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 5
Missouri Valley - 4
Mountain West - 2
New At-Larges This Week
Louisville
UNLV
Off the Board At-Larges
LSU
Last Four In
Alabama
Louisville
Maryland
Syracuse
Last Four Out
BYU
Florida State
Illinois
Wichita State
Next Four Out
Drexel
Kansas State
Purdue
Vanderbilt
Tomorrow, ESPN announces the matchups for BracketBusters on February 16 and 17. Kyle Whelliston over at the MidMajority had a little contest to project the matchups. I struggled with a slow server and the fact that Mozilla hates Google Maps, but after a long hour and a half late last night, I put my picks in. (Insert jokes about how I need a life here. Believe me, I've heard them all before and a life is overrated!) I'll spare you a listing of all 51 matchups, but here are what I think will be the top 10.
1. Southern Illinois at Butler
2. Drexel at Creighton
3. Utah State at Missouri State
4. Winthrop at Wichita State
5. Northern Iowa at Nevada
6. Holy Cross at Virginia Commonwealth
7. Appalachian State at Indiana State
8. Illinois State at Ohio
9. Bradley at George Mason
10. Evansville at Toledo
I'll post a breakdown of the key matchups tomorrow night after the selection show. I won't post a bracket next week, as I'll be in Miami visiting friends for the Super Bowl. Bracket number five will arrive on Sunday, February 11.
This is the time I expect to see lots of movement in my bracket, and indeed, outside of lines 1 and 2 of my S-Curve this week, I had to do a lot of shuffling. Surprisingly, only one at-large team fell out (and that team, LSU, is a surprise, but I'll chalk it up to the inconsistency of the SEC West as a whole). There are two newcomers this week, as the bracket gained an at-large bid when Gonzaga retook the West Coast's auto bid last night.
While lines 1 and 2 are static, the 3 and 4 seeds this week look very different. Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arizona paid dearly for their recent inconsistency. Kentucky drops to a 5 after losses to Vanderbilt and Georgia. Tennessee lost to the Wildcats badly just a little bit ago, and when combined with conference losses to Auburn, Vandy, and Ole Miss, it's only the Vols good work during the nonconference portion of the season that's keeping them on the 6 line. As far as the Arizona Wildcats are concerned, they need to stop the bleeding now. They're 1-4 in their last 5 outings, including a 28-point loss at home to North Carolina, a record for a Lute Olson coached Wildcat team. They fall from a 3 seed to a 6.
My 3 seeds for this week are Duke, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Clemson. Blue Devils and Jayhawks are rising, Cowboys are steady, especially after a Bedlam win on Monday night, and the Tigers may be fading as they get into the ACC schedule. Memphis, Virginia Tech, Marquette, and Indiana are all new occupants of the 4 line. The Tigers may face their biggest challenge in Conference USA Wednesday night when they travel to Orlando to play UCF. If they get by that game, they could run the table. This team isn't as loaded as last year's Elite Eight squad, but they're starting to gel at the right time. The Hokies, Golden Eagles, and Hoosiers are starting to show that they'll be consistent performers in their conference races. All three of them could be higher in six weeks.
On the other end of the at-large pool, Maryland and Syracuse are the two biggest tumblers of the week. The Terps fall down to a 12-seed, mostly as a result of about 12 other teams passing them. A convincing 15-point win over Georgia Tech Wednesday keeps them in for the week. Meanwhile, the Orange (aka "my other team") are giving me the fits that the Gators did at about this time last season. First, there was the near-collapse at home against Cincinnati on January 17 that nearly ruined my trivia team's outing that night. ("What's happening to the lead?" "How in the #$&* are they behind?") Then there were two contrasting road losses on consecutive Saturdays, the first at St. John's where the Orange barely had a chance, the second at Louisville in Coach Boeheim's 1,000th game that was another late collapse. A win of any sort against Notre Dame at the Dome on Tuesday should keep the Orange in. A loss and I fear there will be another Spring Break NIT game that should probably get moved to Manley Field House.
Here are the key facts about this week's bracket.
Bids by Conference
Big East - 8
ACC - 7
Pac 10 - 6
Big 10 - 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC - 5
Missouri Valley - 4
Mountain West - 2
New At-Larges This Week
Louisville
UNLV
Off the Board At-Larges
LSU
Last Four In
Alabama
Louisville
Maryland
Syracuse
Last Four Out
BYU
Florida State
Illinois
Wichita State
Next Four Out
Drexel
Kansas State
Purdue
Vanderbilt
Tomorrow, ESPN announces the matchups for BracketBusters on February 16 and 17. Kyle Whelliston over at the MidMajority had a little contest to project the matchups. I struggled with a slow server and the fact that Mozilla hates Google Maps, but after a long hour and a half late last night, I put my picks in. (Insert jokes about how I need a life here. Believe me, I've heard them all before and a life is overrated!) I'll spare you a listing of all 51 matchups, but here are what I think will be the top 10.
1. Southern Illinois at Butler
2. Drexel at Creighton
3. Utah State at Missouri State
4. Winthrop at Wichita State
5. Northern Iowa at Nevada
6. Holy Cross at Virginia Commonwealth
7. Appalachian State at Indiana State
8. Illinois State at Ohio
9. Bradley at George Mason
10. Evansville at Toledo
I'll post a breakdown of the key matchups tomorrow night after the selection show. I won't post a bracket next week, as I'll be in Miami visiting friends for the Super Bowl. Bracket number five will arrive on Sunday, February 11.
# posted by Chris @ 15:23 
