01 February 2007
Much Delayed BracketBuster Matchup Preview
But first, I must take full blame for Syracuse's embarassing loss Tuesday night. I should've never dropped Notre Dame from the 4 line. So, naturally, the Irish decided to take it out on my second team. The amazing thing about that night was the fact that Notre Dame outscored the Wizards by 6 points in the first half. (I watched both games at a local watering hole and could hardly believe it.) Keep in mind, the Wizards had an extra four minutes in the half and Gilbert Arenas. "Apopleptic" doesn't even begin to describe my mood at around 8 p.m. on Tuesday. (OK, maybe it was a little better than that, since the Wizards were winning.)
We won't even get into my trivia experience on Wednesday. (Two weeks in a row and we can win, and I blow a tennis question, then a world history question??? I'm checking my head for the scar from that lobotomy I didn't order.)
Back to BracketBusters, out of my 51 matchup picks, I got a whopping 6 right. Of the ones I got wrong, I must say I got the conference matchup right the majority of the time, which is little consolation. There are 14 TV matchups of varying quality to discuss. So, moving from matchups with the least at-large impact to those with the most...
14. Cal State-Fullerton @ Wright State: The Titans currently lead the Big West and the Raiders are a game behind Butler in the Horizon. These two teams are very close in the RPI, which is good. Unfortunately for them, they're both in the mid-130s. That's why I rank this game 14th of 14 TV games, and probably why the four-letter 360 will air it and 5 people will see it. Predicted matchups: Fullerton @ New Mexico State, Towson @ Wright State
13. Albany @ Boise State: The Great Danes are a game back of Vermont in the America East, and they get play on the brightly coloured floor at BSU Pavillion. That's the highlight, as the Broncos are fading in the WAC race. It's another potentially entertaining matchup featuring two teams who will have to win their conference tournaments to get in. Predicted matchups: Albany @ Marist, Cal-Irvine @ Boise State
12. Kent State @ George Mason: Colonials are trying to keep their collective heads above water in an extremely competitive CAA. Kent State is a game back in the MAC East. Both teams have a halfway decent chance to win their conference tournaments. If they don't, this result will only trouble the NIT committee. Predicted matchups: Kent State @ Loyola-Chicago, Bradley @ George Mason
11. Austin Peay @ Akron: Two current one-loss conference leaders, so now we're starting to get some matchups that look relatively even on paper. However, APSU is currently 122 in the RPI, Akron 96th. The Zips have a better chance of getting a jump thanks to MAC play. This game could be the difference between a spot on the 13 or 14 line for the winner, if they can survive March. Predicted matchups: Austin Peay @ Siena, Old Dominion @ Akron
10. Utah State @ Oral Roberts: The Aggies were the last team in last year. Currently, they're 3 and a half back in the WAC and lost to Nevada by 17 last Saturday. (They've yet to play the Aggies from Las Cruces.) The Eagles just slugged Oakland by 10 to take sole possession of the Mid-Con lead. The only reason this is number 10 on the list is because the Committee seems to like Utah State. Predicted matchups: Utah State @ Missouri State, Northwestern State @ Oral Roberts
9. Old Dominion @ Toledo: Two teams whose best chance of getting in lies in winning their respective conference tournaments. Monarchs won at Georgetown early, so that is their marquee win. Rockets beat VCU in Toledo, also early. Toledo is actually 2-1 against the CAA this year, losing at Drexel and beating Wilmington at home. ODU has yet to play a MAC team. Predicted matchups: Old Dominion @ Akron, Evansville @ Toledo (I'm not sure what I was thinking there.)
8. Ohio @ New Mexico State: Now we're starting to get into games where at-large chances are greater than slim. In this case, the Aggies have a decent chance, primarily because they can beat Nevada. Ohio just beat Toledo to knock the Rockets out of first in the MAC. A win here would help NMSU's resume slightly, but not nearly as much as a win in Reno on March 3. Predicted matchups: Ohio @ Illinois State, Fullerton @ New Mexico State
7. Holy Cross @ Hofstra: The Crusaders are currently dominating the Patriot League and have that slightly inflated RPI of 64. A win over the Pride would be their best. Not that the Flying Dutchmen don't have anything to play for now. An RPI of 109 may doom their at-large hopes, but a win over VCU Wednesday puts them just a game back in the Colonial. This is another game in which a win could do wonders for potential seeding. Predicted matchups: Holy Cross @ VCU, Miami U @ Hofstra
6. Appalachian State @ Wichita State: SoCon leader Davidson isn't in this year's BracketBusters field, so the Mountaineers are carrying the flag into Wichita. The Shockers may finally be getting back on track, after their big win at Northern Iowa Tuesday night. They can't afford a slip-up at home. Predicted matchups: Appalachian State @ Indiana State, Winthrop @ Wichita State
5. Winthrop @ Missouri State: Now we're definitely deep in the at-large pool. The Bears have been a regular fixture in my bracket this season, primarily thanks to their win over Wisconsin in Corpus Christi very early. However, they've done a good job with their mid-major heavy schedule that really reads like a list of BracketBusters. The Eagles, meanwhile, are looking for a big win. (They did lose to the Badgers by 3 on the road and to NC by 7 in Charlotte in the NIT, however.) This should be a competitive and entertaining matchup. Predicted matchups: Winthrop @ Wichita State, Utah State @ Missouri State
4. Southern Illinois @ Butler: If both teams weren't locks, this game would be #1. Some prognosticators have Butler in their top 4 lines. I don't think the Committee will put them that high, but is a 5 doable, certainly. SIU is a solid bet for a 5 or 6 as well, especially if they continue to lead the MVC. I actually got this one right.
3. Northern Iowa @ Nevada: Wolf Pack are more of a lock than the Panthers at this point. This is exactly the kind of win that could solidify a bid for UNI, however. A loss shouldn't hurt Nevada too badly. I got this one right too.
2. Drexel @ Creighton: Creighton and Drexel are two teams that I have differing opinions about compared to other Bracketologists. I think the Blue Jays are in. Second in the Valley, RPI of 28, inconsistent in the non-conference, but making up for it in the league. Drexel's three big road wins in a row don't look so great now, so I don't think they're in. I withhold the right to reconsider after this game. That's three in a row. Let's throw a party!
1. Bradley @ Virginia Commonwealth: Bradley's another middle of the pack Valley team that's trying to separate themselves from the pack. They don't have a standout non-conference win yet, but a win in Richmond could be it. The Rams were tearing through the Colonial until their loss at Hofstra Wednesday. They should be over 20 wins by the time this matchup rolls around, but with a competitive at-large pool this year that's no guarantee. This game should be a doozy. Predicted matchups: Bradley @ George Mason, Holy Cross @ VCU
Next bracket on Sunday, February 11, one month from Selection Sunday.
But first, I must take full blame for Syracuse's embarassing loss Tuesday night. I should've never dropped Notre Dame from the 4 line. So, naturally, the Irish decided to take it out on my second team. The amazing thing about that night was the fact that Notre Dame outscored the Wizards by 6 points in the first half. (I watched both games at a local watering hole and could hardly believe it.) Keep in mind, the Wizards had an extra four minutes in the half and Gilbert Arenas. "Apopleptic" doesn't even begin to describe my mood at around 8 p.m. on Tuesday. (OK, maybe it was a little better than that, since the Wizards were winning.)
We won't even get into my trivia experience on Wednesday. (Two weeks in a row and we can win, and I blow a tennis question, then a world history question??? I'm checking my head for the scar from that lobotomy I didn't order.)
Back to BracketBusters, out of my 51 matchup picks, I got a whopping 6 right. Of the ones I got wrong, I must say I got the conference matchup right the majority of the time, which is little consolation. There are 14 TV matchups of varying quality to discuss. So, moving from matchups with the least at-large impact to those with the most...
14. Cal State-Fullerton @ Wright State: The Titans currently lead the Big West and the Raiders are a game behind Butler in the Horizon. These two teams are very close in the RPI, which is good. Unfortunately for them, they're both in the mid-130s. That's why I rank this game 14th of 14 TV games, and probably why the four-letter 360 will air it and 5 people will see it. Predicted matchups: Fullerton @ New Mexico State, Towson @ Wright State
13. Albany @ Boise State: The Great Danes are a game back of Vermont in the America East, and they get play on the brightly coloured floor at BSU Pavillion. That's the highlight, as the Broncos are fading in the WAC race. It's another potentially entertaining matchup featuring two teams who will have to win their conference tournaments to get in. Predicted matchups: Albany @ Marist, Cal-Irvine @ Boise State
12. Kent State @ George Mason: Colonials are trying to keep their collective heads above water in an extremely competitive CAA. Kent State is a game back in the MAC East. Both teams have a halfway decent chance to win their conference tournaments. If they don't, this result will only trouble the NIT committee. Predicted matchups: Kent State @ Loyola-Chicago, Bradley @ George Mason
11. Austin Peay @ Akron: Two current one-loss conference leaders, so now we're starting to get some matchups that look relatively even on paper. However, APSU is currently 122 in the RPI, Akron 96th. The Zips have a better chance of getting a jump thanks to MAC play. This game could be the difference between a spot on the 13 or 14 line for the winner, if they can survive March. Predicted matchups: Austin Peay @ Siena, Old Dominion @ Akron
10. Utah State @ Oral Roberts: The Aggies were the last team in last year. Currently, they're 3 and a half back in the WAC and lost to Nevada by 17 last Saturday. (They've yet to play the Aggies from Las Cruces.) The Eagles just slugged Oakland by 10 to take sole possession of the Mid-Con lead. The only reason this is number 10 on the list is because the Committee seems to like Utah State. Predicted matchups: Utah State @ Missouri State, Northwestern State @ Oral Roberts
9. Old Dominion @ Toledo: Two teams whose best chance of getting in lies in winning their respective conference tournaments. Monarchs won at Georgetown early, so that is their marquee win. Rockets beat VCU in Toledo, also early. Toledo is actually 2-1 against the CAA this year, losing at Drexel and beating Wilmington at home. ODU has yet to play a MAC team. Predicted matchups: Old Dominion @ Akron, Evansville @ Toledo (I'm not sure what I was thinking there.)
8. Ohio @ New Mexico State: Now we're starting to get into games where at-large chances are greater than slim. In this case, the Aggies have a decent chance, primarily because they can beat Nevada. Ohio just beat Toledo to knock the Rockets out of first in the MAC. A win here would help NMSU's resume slightly, but not nearly as much as a win in Reno on March 3. Predicted matchups: Ohio @ Illinois State, Fullerton @ New Mexico State
7. Holy Cross @ Hofstra: The Crusaders are currently dominating the Patriot League and have that slightly inflated RPI of 64. A win over the Pride would be their best. Not that the Flying Dutchmen don't have anything to play for now. An RPI of 109 may doom their at-large hopes, but a win over VCU Wednesday puts them just a game back in the Colonial. This is another game in which a win could do wonders for potential seeding. Predicted matchups: Holy Cross @ VCU, Miami U @ Hofstra
6. Appalachian State @ Wichita State: SoCon leader Davidson isn't in this year's BracketBusters field, so the Mountaineers are carrying the flag into Wichita. The Shockers may finally be getting back on track, after their big win at Northern Iowa Tuesday night. They can't afford a slip-up at home. Predicted matchups: Appalachian State @ Indiana State, Winthrop @ Wichita State
5. Winthrop @ Missouri State: Now we're definitely deep in the at-large pool. The Bears have been a regular fixture in my bracket this season, primarily thanks to their win over Wisconsin in Corpus Christi very early. However, they've done a good job with their mid-major heavy schedule that really reads like a list of BracketBusters. The Eagles, meanwhile, are looking for a big win. (They did lose to the Badgers by 3 on the road and to NC by 7 in Charlotte in the NIT, however.) This should be a competitive and entertaining matchup. Predicted matchups: Winthrop @ Wichita State, Utah State @ Missouri State
4. Southern Illinois @ Butler: If both teams weren't locks, this game would be #1. Some prognosticators have Butler in their top 4 lines. I don't think the Committee will put them that high, but is a 5 doable, certainly. SIU is a solid bet for a 5 or 6 as well, especially if they continue to lead the MVC. I actually got this one right.
3. Northern Iowa @ Nevada: Wolf Pack are more of a lock than the Panthers at this point. This is exactly the kind of win that could solidify a bid for UNI, however. A loss shouldn't hurt Nevada too badly. I got this one right too.
2. Drexel @ Creighton: Creighton and Drexel are two teams that I have differing opinions about compared to other Bracketologists. I think the Blue Jays are in. Second in the Valley, RPI of 28, inconsistent in the non-conference, but making up for it in the league. Drexel's three big road wins in a row don't look so great now, so I don't think they're in. I withhold the right to reconsider after this game. That's three in a row. Let's throw a party!
1. Bradley @ Virginia Commonwealth: Bradley's another middle of the pack Valley team that's trying to separate themselves from the pack. They don't have a standout non-conference win yet, but a win in Richmond could be it. The Rams were tearing through the Colonial until their loss at Hofstra Wednesday. They should be over 20 wins by the time this matchup rolls around, but with a competitive at-large pool this year that's no guarantee. This game should be a doozy. Predicted matchups: Bradley @ George Mason, Holy Cross @ VCU
Next bracket on Sunday, February 11, one month from Selection Sunday.
# posted by Chris @ 20:15 
