11 February 2007
One Month Until Selection Sunday
It's been two weeks since I last posted a bracket. This week's attempt shows how much upheaval there's been in Bracketville over the past 14 days. Seven at-large teams are gone, a former #3 seed has hit its traditional mid-season skid and is almost out, and there are four newcomers. Oh, and there's been a lot of shuffling in the middle of the pack.
The top four seeds remain the same in both name and order: UCLA, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Ohio State is nipping at the Badgers heels, however. The issue may not be settled until the two teams meet in Columbus on the 25th. Ohio State has a meeting with Minnesota sandwiched between a home-and-home with Penn State, while Wisconsin also plays both the Gophers and Nittany Lions before welcoming the Buckeyes. The Badgers also travel to East Lansing before then. (Michigan State fell out of my projection this week.)
So, the twos are Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, and Kansas. The Jayhawks replaced Oregon, who drop down to the 5 line after a rough two weekends in Southern California and at home against the Arizona schools. Their only win in the four was against a dreadful Arizona State team, and while their effort against Arizona Saturday was impressive, the Ducks fall.
The 3 and 4 lines are where the fun/difficulty really begins. Duke is the only 3 from two weeks ago still holding that seed, and they're barely doing that. It's really the warts on their competition that keeps the Blue Devils from falling down to the 4 line. Washington State, Memphis, and Marquette all deservedly move up (even if the Golden Eagles got smacked at the Phone Booth by Georgetown yesterday). Clemson falls from a 3 to an 11 because they've been so terrible lately, and Oklahoma State dropped to a 4. Joining the Cowboys as 4s are Southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Butler. I was kind of leery about putting the Salukis and Bulldogs this high, since I figured the Committee won't in a month. Then, I looked at the profiles of their competition and felt more comfortable with them than teams like Virginia Tech (inconsistency), West Virginia (schedule strength, even though beating UCLA helped them move up to a 5), Notre Dame (really good, but computer numbers are off for some reason and losing to DePaul isn't helpful), Air Force (getting demolished at San Diego State isn't good), and Nevada (schedule strength)
There were just a few big jumps among the 5-12 lines. Stanford jumped four lines from an 11 to a 7, West Virginia rises from an 8 to a 5, and Arkansas slips from an 8 to an 11. Otherwise, the really big talk should be about who I dumped out and brought in. For starters, I lost two at-large slots this week. Santa Clara holds the West Coast's momentarily over Gonzaga. The two meet in Spokane on Monday night. Wright State beat Butler at the Nutter Center to take the Horizon's auto bid for the week. That loss could mean two bids for the Horizon, since the regular season winner gets hosting rights for as long as their involved in the conference tournament. If the standings hold, Butler will have to beat the Raiders at the Nutter Center to take the automatic spot. The Bulldogs are half a game back, but have a slightly tougher conference slate. (Butler @ UW-Green Bay, home to Detroit and Loyola, Wright State home to Cleveland State and @Youngstown State). So, seven teams fall out: Georgia Tech (and beating UConn today doesn't help), Louisville (iffy two weeks ago anyway, now others are starting to come alive), Maryland (beating Duke today does help, but we'll see what happens at NC State and Clemson), Michigan (four straight league losses and barely getting by an awful Minnesota team see them out), Michigan State (four straight league losses, even if they are all to decent teams), and Syracuse (the one that obviously breaks my heart, but the Orange just weren't able to show they could close a game until today against St. John's). I was going to dump Texas Tech thanks to their five straight conference losses, even if the last two were heartbreakers, but UMass falling to Temple this afternoon gave the A-10 lead to Xavier and opened up one last at-large. The conference wins the Red Raiders do have just keep them in.
With that here are the four newcomers this week...
Kansas State - not a great out of conference profile, but are doing remarkably well in the Big 12
Purdue - beating comparable teams (Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State), good effort against Ohio State Saturday
Vanderbilt - despite getting hammered by Tennessee Saturday, the Commodores are almost like the Purdue of the SEC, beating the teams they need to (Bama, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia)
Virginia - third place in the ACC is normally good enough, this year it should be more than enough
Breakdown by Conference
ACC - 6 (North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Clemson)
Big East - 6 (Pittsburgh, Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova)
Big 12 - 6 (Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech)
Pac-10 - 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, USC)
SEC - 6 (Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas)
Big 10 - 4 (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue)
Missouri Valley - 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West - 3 (Air Force, BYU, UNLV)
Horizon - 2 (Butler, Wright State)
West Coast - 2 (Gonzaga, Santa Clara)
Last Four In
Arkansas
Clemson
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Last Four Out
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Michigan State
Wichita State
Next Four Out
Drexel
Louisville
Maryland
Providence
Looking into the Crystal Ball - The Banana Peel List
Since it is a month until Selection Sunday, I'm feeling brave and will take this opportunity to predict some of the conference races for the conferences that typically just get one bid. Since I don't have Tony Kornheiser's turban and crystal ball from PTI, results may vary.
America East - Vermont won at Albany this afternoon to solidify their lead. That's a sweep for the Catamounts. Since the regular season champ gets to host the tournament final, I'm picking Vermont to win the auto bid.
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State holds a two-game lead over Belmont. The Bucs also have gone 3-1 against the Bruins and their eternal Nashville rivals, Lipscomb, this year. ETSU also hosts the league tourney. That didn't help them last year, but this year they'll be too much. ETSU will be in one month from now.
Atlantic Ten - This shouldn't be a one-bid league, but it is for the moment. This is traditionally a wild tournament, so I expect that Xavier won't hold on to the auto bid. UMass will make it two bids for the A-10. It could just as easily be GW, Temple, St. Joe's, or Rhode Island making it out, but the Minutemen are tested.
Big Sky - Another league where the regular season winner hosts the tournament, so at the moment Weber State would be the host. The Wildcats still have to host second place Montana. I think the Grizzlies will pull it out and host. Montana will get the auto bid again.
Big South - Winthrop is running away with it right now. If they make the final, it will be in Rock Hill. Winthrop will hold off Coastal Carolina to make the tournament and avoid sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Big West - Long Beach State goes to Cal State-Fullerton tomorrow for a first place battle. The conference tournament is in Anaheim, so there shouldn't be a real advantage for the 49ers, Titans, or the third-placed UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos. I'm going to go out on a limb here and pick LBSU.
Colonial - VCU appeared to have it all wrapped up until they lost to ODU by 16 in Norfolk. That loss also damages the Rams at-large hopes, so the CAA could be a one-bid league this year. The one advantage VCU has is that the conference tournament is in Richmond, which is why they're my pick to survive.
Conference USA - One word: Memphis, everyone else is just a really bad pretender.
Horizon - As I said before, this one could be a bit interesting depending on Butler and Wright State's stretch runs. I think the Bulldogs will go 3-0 and take the regular season crown, then beat the Raiders for the auto bid at Hinkle. In the end, the team that gets at-large spot 34 will have Butler to thank for taking care of business.
Ivy - No conference tournament here, though there will be a playoff if teams end up tied. I'm going to play the percentages here and pick Penn to win the Ivy.
Metro Atlantic - Marist is the best team in this league from a talent perspective, but Loyola has led for much of the season. The two teams split, each winning at home. I'm not sure if there will be a rubber match in Bridgeport for the auto bid, but I do think Marist will win it.
Mid-American - Akron and Toledo both sport 9-2 conference marks at the moment. Rockets beat the Zips in their only regular season meeting yesterday in the Glass City. This is another conference tournament famous for its unpredictability, however. I don't think either team makes it. I'm picking Ohio in an upset.
Mid-Continent - Last year, Oral Roberts finally got the hang of winning the conference tournament in a friendly environment. They'll win it again in Tulsa.
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State still has to play its two closest challengers again. They go to Norfolk State (Hornets beat the Spartans earlier) and host Florida A&M (Hornets lost to the Rattlers in Tallahassee). Conference tournament is in Raleigh, and I expect Delaware State to be the class of the league again no matter how they finish the regular season.
Northeast - Central Connecticut State has really taken control of this conference, which would give them the chance to host the championship game (if they make it that far). CCSU seems a safe bet.
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay holds a three-game lead on Samford at the moment. The Governors also swept the Bulldogs, and with four games left in the regular season it would take an epic collapse for APSU to lose the #1 seed in Nashville. Austin Peay should have more support in a third meeting with Samford, so they're my pick.
Patriot - Holy Cross and Bucknell are currently tied for the league. They've already met twice with each winning on their home court. If they stay 1 and 2, the Crusaders and Bison will host quarterfinal and semifinal action. If they win, they meet at the top-seed's arena. Holy Cross is due to break Bucknell's dominance over the league this season and will do it at the Hart Center the Friday before the bracket comes out.
Southern - Davidson and Appalachian State are both trying to make it as at-larges should they fail to win the conference tournament. However, I'm not sure either will make it period. The tourney's in Charleston, which gives College of Charleston the advantage, and I think, the bid.
Southland - This conference's tournament moves to a neutral site this year, the Campbell Center in Houston. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has waited a few years to get a chance at the Big Dance, and they won't fail at their first attempt.
Southwestern - The SWAC has been very competitive this year, with five teams within two games of the lead. That means there will be a wide-open conference tournament in Birmingham. I pick Jackson State, the strongest team overall, to win the auto bid.
Sun Belt - It's hard to believe that South Alabama has three games in the loss column on Western Kentucky. They have a full two-game lead on West Division leaders Louisiana-Monroe. One thing to remember is that the Jags lost to WKU by 22 in Bowling Green and needed OT to beat them in Mobile. I pick Western Kentucky to win a rubber match for the automatic bid.
West Coast - Gonzaga may actually need to win their conference tournament to get in. It's in Portland this year, which shouldn't be much of an advantage to anyone. Gonzaga does it again to ruin Santa Clara's hopes of getting in.
Western Athletic - Nevada now has a two-game lead on an NMSU team that's starting to fade. These two teams meet in Reno to close out the regular season, but the league tournament is in Las Cruces this year. I think Nevada holds serve to take the regular season crown, but New Mexico State takes advantage of being at home to make this a two bid conference.
So, file those. I'll review them as Championship Week unfolds. I'll post a new bracket in a week.
It's been two weeks since I last posted a bracket. This week's attempt shows how much upheaval there's been in Bracketville over the past 14 days. Seven at-large teams are gone, a former #3 seed has hit its traditional mid-season skid and is almost out, and there are four newcomers. Oh, and there's been a lot of shuffling in the middle of the pack.
The top four seeds remain the same in both name and order: UCLA, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Ohio State is nipping at the Badgers heels, however. The issue may not be settled until the two teams meet in Columbus on the 25th. Ohio State has a meeting with Minnesota sandwiched between a home-and-home with Penn State, while Wisconsin also plays both the Gophers and Nittany Lions before welcoming the Buckeyes. The Badgers also travel to East Lansing before then. (Michigan State fell out of my projection this week.)
So, the twos are Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, and Kansas. The Jayhawks replaced Oregon, who drop down to the 5 line after a rough two weekends in Southern California and at home against the Arizona schools. Their only win in the four was against a dreadful Arizona State team, and while their effort against Arizona Saturday was impressive, the Ducks fall.
The 3 and 4 lines are where the fun/difficulty really begins. Duke is the only 3 from two weeks ago still holding that seed, and they're barely doing that. It's really the warts on their competition that keeps the Blue Devils from falling down to the 4 line. Washington State, Memphis, and Marquette all deservedly move up (even if the Golden Eagles got smacked at the Phone Booth by Georgetown yesterday). Clemson falls from a 3 to an 11 because they've been so terrible lately, and Oklahoma State dropped to a 4. Joining the Cowboys as 4s are Southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Butler. I was kind of leery about putting the Salukis and Bulldogs this high, since I figured the Committee won't in a month. Then, I looked at the profiles of their competition and felt more comfortable with them than teams like Virginia Tech (inconsistency), West Virginia (schedule strength, even though beating UCLA helped them move up to a 5), Notre Dame (really good, but computer numbers are off for some reason and losing to DePaul isn't helpful), Air Force (getting demolished at San Diego State isn't good), and Nevada (schedule strength)
There were just a few big jumps among the 5-12 lines. Stanford jumped four lines from an 11 to a 7, West Virginia rises from an 8 to a 5, and Arkansas slips from an 8 to an 11. Otherwise, the really big talk should be about who I dumped out and brought in. For starters, I lost two at-large slots this week. Santa Clara holds the West Coast's momentarily over Gonzaga. The two meet in Spokane on Monday night. Wright State beat Butler at the Nutter Center to take the Horizon's auto bid for the week. That loss could mean two bids for the Horizon, since the regular season winner gets hosting rights for as long as their involved in the conference tournament. If the standings hold, Butler will have to beat the Raiders at the Nutter Center to take the automatic spot. The Bulldogs are half a game back, but have a slightly tougher conference slate. (Butler @ UW-Green Bay, home to Detroit and Loyola, Wright State home to Cleveland State and @Youngstown State). So, seven teams fall out: Georgia Tech (and beating UConn today doesn't help), Louisville (iffy two weeks ago anyway, now others are starting to come alive), Maryland (beating Duke today does help, but we'll see what happens at NC State and Clemson), Michigan (four straight league losses and barely getting by an awful Minnesota team see them out), Michigan State (four straight league losses, even if they are all to decent teams), and Syracuse (the one that obviously breaks my heart, but the Orange just weren't able to show they could close a game until today against St. John's). I was going to dump Texas Tech thanks to their five straight conference losses, even if the last two were heartbreakers, but UMass falling to Temple this afternoon gave the A-10 lead to Xavier and opened up one last at-large. The conference wins the Red Raiders do have just keep them in.
With that here are the four newcomers this week...
Kansas State - not a great out of conference profile, but are doing remarkably well in the Big 12
Purdue - beating comparable teams (Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State), good effort against Ohio State Saturday
Vanderbilt - despite getting hammered by Tennessee Saturday, the Commodores are almost like the Purdue of the SEC, beating the teams they need to (Bama, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia)
Virginia - third place in the ACC is normally good enough, this year it should be more than enough
Breakdown by Conference
ACC - 6 (North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Clemson)
Big East - 6 (Pittsburgh, Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova)
Big 12 - 6 (Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech)
Pac-10 - 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, USC)
SEC - 6 (Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas)
Big 10 - 4 (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue)
Missouri Valley - 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West - 3 (Air Force, BYU, UNLV)
Horizon - 2 (Butler, Wright State)
West Coast - 2 (Gonzaga, Santa Clara)
Last Four In
Arkansas
Clemson
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Last Four Out
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Michigan State
Wichita State
Next Four Out
Drexel
Louisville
Maryland
Providence
Looking into the Crystal Ball - The Banana Peel List
Since it is a month until Selection Sunday, I'm feeling brave and will take this opportunity to predict some of the conference races for the conferences that typically just get one bid. Since I don't have Tony Kornheiser's turban and crystal ball from PTI, results may vary.
America East - Vermont won at Albany this afternoon to solidify their lead. That's a sweep for the Catamounts. Since the regular season champ gets to host the tournament final, I'm picking Vermont to win the auto bid.
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State holds a two-game lead over Belmont. The Bucs also have gone 3-1 against the Bruins and their eternal Nashville rivals, Lipscomb, this year. ETSU also hosts the league tourney. That didn't help them last year, but this year they'll be too much. ETSU will be in one month from now.
Atlantic Ten - This shouldn't be a one-bid league, but it is for the moment. This is traditionally a wild tournament, so I expect that Xavier won't hold on to the auto bid. UMass will make it two bids for the A-10. It could just as easily be GW, Temple, St. Joe's, or Rhode Island making it out, but the Minutemen are tested.
Big Sky - Another league where the regular season winner hosts the tournament, so at the moment Weber State would be the host. The Wildcats still have to host second place Montana. I think the Grizzlies will pull it out and host. Montana will get the auto bid again.
Big South - Winthrop is running away with it right now. If they make the final, it will be in Rock Hill. Winthrop will hold off Coastal Carolina to make the tournament and avoid sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Big West - Long Beach State goes to Cal State-Fullerton tomorrow for a first place battle. The conference tournament is in Anaheim, so there shouldn't be a real advantage for the 49ers, Titans, or the third-placed UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos. I'm going to go out on a limb here and pick LBSU.
Colonial - VCU appeared to have it all wrapped up until they lost to ODU by 16 in Norfolk. That loss also damages the Rams at-large hopes, so the CAA could be a one-bid league this year. The one advantage VCU has is that the conference tournament is in Richmond, which is why they're my pick to survive.
Conference USA - One word: Memphis, everyone else is just a really bad pretender.
Horizon - As I said before, this one could be a bit interesting depending on Butler and Wright State's stretch runs. I think the Bulldogs will go 3-0 and take the regular season crown, then beat the Raiders for the auto bid at Hinkle. In the end, the team that gets at-large spot 34 will have Butler to thank for taking care of business.
Ivy - No conference tournament here, though there will be a playoff if teams end up tied. I'm going to play the percentages here and pick Penn to win the Ivy.
Metro Atlantic - Marist is the best team in this league from a talent perspective, but Loyola has led for much of the season. The two teams split, each winning at home. I'm not sure if there will be a rubber match in Bridgeport for the auto bid, but I do think Marist will win it.
Mid-American - Akron and Toledo both sport 9-2 conference marks at the moment. Rockets beat the Zips in their only regular season meeting yesterday in the Glass City. This is another conference tournament famous for its unpredictability, however. I don't think either team makes it. I'm picking Ohio in an upset.
Mid-Continent - Last year, Oral Roberts finally got the hang of winning the conference tournament in a friendly environment. They'll win it again in Tulsa.
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State still has to play its two closest challengers again. They go to Norfolk State (Hornets beat the Spartans earlier) and host Florida A&M (Hornets lost to the Rattlers in Tallahassee). Conference tournament is in Raleigh, and I expect Delaware State to be the class of the league again no matter how they finish the regular season.
Northeast - Central Connecticut State has really taken control of this conference, which would give them the chance to host the championship game (if they make it that far). CCSU seems a safe bet.
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay holds a three-game lead on Samford at the moment. The Governors also swept the Bulldogs, and with four games left in the regular season it would take an epic collapse for APSU to lose the #1 seed in Nashville. Austin Peay should have more support in a third meeting with Samford, so they're my pick.
Patriot - Holy Cross and Bucknell are currently tied for the league. They've already met twice with each winning on their home court. If they stay 1 and 2, the Crusaders and Bison will host quarterfinal and semifinal action. If they win, they meet at the top-seed's arena. Holy Cross is due to break Bucknell's dominance over the league this season and will do it at the Hart Center the Friday before the bracket comes out.
Southern - Davidson and Appalachian State are both trying to make it as at-larges should they fail to win the conference tournament. However, I'm not sure either will make it period. The tourney's in Charleston, which gives College of Charleston the advantage, and I think, the bid.
Southland - This conference's tournament moves to a neutral site this year, the Campbell Center in Houston. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has waited a few years to get a chance at the Big Dance, and they won't fail at their first attempt.
Southwestern - The SWAC has been very competitive this year, with five teams within two games of the lead. That means there will be a wide-open conference tournament in Birmingham. I pick Jackson State, the strongest team overall, to win the auto bid.
Sun Belt - It's hard to believe that South Alabama has three games in the loss column on Western Kentucky. They have a full two-game lead on West Division leaders Louisiana-Monroe. One thing to remember is that the Jags lost to WKU by 22 in Bowling Green and needed OT to beat them in Mobile. I pick Western Kentucky to win a rubber match for the automatic bid.
West Coast - Gonzaga may actually need to win their conference tournament to get in. It's in Portland this year, which shouldn't be much of an advantage to anyone. Gonzaga does it again to ruin Santa Clara's hopes of getting in.
Western Athletic - Nevada now has a two-game lead on an NMSU team that's starting to fade. These two teams meet in Reno to close out the regular season, but the league tournament is in Las Cruces this year. I think Nevada holds serve to take the regular season crown, but New Mexico State takes advantage of being at home to make this a two bid conference.
So, file those. I'll review them as Championship Week unfolds. I'll post a new bracket in a week.
# posted by Chris @ 19:07 
