18 February 2007
Three Weeks Left and Some Teams Really Don't Want An At-Large Bid
Every year at about this time, I look at the scores as they roll along on ESPN or ESPNEWS and wonder what in the heck some teams are thinking. Sure, injuries and fatigue are going to start taking their toll after the 20th game of the season rolls around, but teams also seem to forget there are three weeks left to build a resume and there are at-large bids to be had! Here's this week's bracket.
With that being said, the top four seeds again are the same four familiar teams. UCLA, North Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin. I flipped the Tar Heels and Gators after some close calls for the alma mater finally resulted in inevitable defeat at UF's own "House of Horrors," Memorial Gym on Saturday afternoon. We're still one week away from the Badgers matchup at Ohio State that may settle the final one seed.
The twos remain the same: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, and Kansas. The Panthers lost to Louisville (who returns as an 11 seed after that road win and a buzzer-beater win in Milwaukee) and beat Washington, who's so far out of the discussion now that it's not funny.
The 3 and 4 lines look very different this week. Duke took the drop they should've made last week and then some. They're now an 8. Washington State, Memphis, and Marquette are now joined by Georgetown. I was tempted to drop the Golden Eagles to the 4 line after the Louisville loss and last week's beating at the hands of the Hoyas. However, they stay up because of the failings of teams like West Virginia and Oregon. This could be the year for non-BCS conference teams to be factors in protected seed discussions. Three of my four 4s this week are from outside of the Big Six conferences: Air Force moves up from the 5 line and Southern Illinois and Butler stay up (I'm not going to drop the Bulldogs because they lost a close game to the Salukis at Hinkle when AJ Graves was suffering from flu-like symptoms.). They're joined by West Virginia, who moves up despite losing at Georgetown and beating weak Seton Hall at home. (At this point, everyone outside of the top two lines has some warts.) Oklahoma State was on the four line last week, but, much like Duke, they're losing too many games they shouldn't. An 11-point home loss to Missouri is the fourth loss in five for the Cowboys. (The win was a double OT decision over Texas Tech.) Wins over Pitt, Syracuse, Texas, and Missouri State are keeping the Cowboys in. If things don't change, the Committee may ask "what have you done lately" about Okie State and keep them out.
Four teams are out this week, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Villanova, and Arkansas. The Bulldogs dropped two big games this week: Monday at home to Santa Clara, which gave the Broncos the WCC lead and Saturday's heartbreaker to Memphis. If Josh Heytvelt is indeed charged on Tuesday and his suspension lasts for the remainder of the season, the Zags chances will hinge on the conference tournament in Portland. K-State dropped a 13-point decision to a terrible Nebraska team. Villanova barely falls out after dropping a close one to Georgetown on Saturday. (Rhode Island currently holds first in the A-10, which means Xavier steals the Wildcats' at-large bid for the week.) Arkansas lost badly to Miss. State and beat Ole Miss. That split puts the Razorbacks two games below .500 in the lacklustre SEC West and out of this week's bracket.
With that here are the three new at-larges this week...
Louisville - two huge road wins at Pitt and Marquette get them in
Maryland - three good wins in a row Duke, @ tricky NC State, and @ Clemson put the Terps back in
Georgia Tech- won four in a row before falling to Duke today
Breakdown by Conference
ACC - 8 (North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Maryland)
Big East - 6 (Pittsburgh, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville)
Pac-10 - 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, USC)
Big 12 - 5 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech)
SEC - 5 (Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama)
Big 10 - 4 (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue)
Missouri Valley - 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West - 3 (Air Force, BYU, UNLV)
Atlantic 10 - 2 (Rhode Island, Xavier)
Horizon - 2 (Butler, Wright State)
Last Four In
Louisville
Maryland
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Last Four Out
Appalachian State
Gonzaga
Syracuse
Villanova
Next Four Out
Bradley
Drexel
Illinois
Michigan State
BracketBuster Saturday was helpful for three teams in particular. Winthrop's demolition of Missouri State means they're a serious contender to get a mid-range seed. Some commentators were saying 8 or 9. I don't think they'll be higher than a 10 myself, which is why they're an 11 this week. Appalachian State's road win at Wichita State means the Mountaineers are a serious at-large contender, while the result may have ended the Wheat Shockers' at-large hopes. App State's resume is a messy one though, with several good wins (Virginia and Vandy in Puerto Rico, @ VCU), several explainable losses (@ Virginia Tech, Wake, and Clemson...though the margins to the Hokies and Tigers were huge), and a few real headscratchers (losing to Elon at home and @ Furman and UNC-Greensboro could be problematic). Drexel's thrilling win at Creighton shows that the Dragons may also be an at-large threat, but they need to take care of business in their final two CAA games and get far in the conference tournament to really have a chance. (Syracuse and Villanova getting back in the field would also help Drexel's quality win total.)
There will be another bracket (with more changes I'm sure) in a week.
E-mail me.
Every year at about this time, I look at the scores as they roll along on ESPN or ESPNEWS and wonder what in the heck some teams are thinking. Sure, injuries and fatigue are going to start taking their toll after the 20th game of the season rolls around, but teams also seem to forget there are three weeks left to build a resume and there are at-large bids to be had! Here's this week's bracket.
With that being said, the top four seeds again are the same four familiar teams. UCLA, North Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin. I flipped the Tar Heels and Gators after some close calls for the alma mater finally resulted in inevitable defeat at UF's own "House of Horrors," Memorial Gym on Saturday afternoon. We're still one week away from the Badgers matchup at Ohio State that may settle the final one seed.
The twos remain the same: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, and Kansas. The Panthers lost to Louisville (who returns as an 11 seed after that road win and a buzzer-beater win in Milwaukee) and beat Washington, who's so far out of the discussion now that it's not funny.
The 3 and 4 lines look very different this week. Duke took the drop they should've made last week and then some. They're now an 8. Washington State, Memphis, and Marquette are now joined by Georgetown. I was tempted to drop the Golden Eagles to the 4 line after the Louisville loss and last week's beating at the hands of the Hoyas. However, they stay up because of the failings of teams like West Virginia and Oregon. This could be the year for non-BCS conference teams to be factors in protected seed discussions. Three of my four 4s this week are from outside of the Big Six conferences: Air Force moves up from the 5 line and Southern Illinois and Butler stay up (I'm not going to drop the Bulldogs because they lost a close game to the Salukis at Hinkle when AJ Graves was suffering from flu-like symptoms.). They're joined by West Virginia, who moves up despite losing at Georgetown and beating weak Seton Hall at home. (At this point, everyone outside of the top two lines has some warts.) Oklahoma State was on the four line last week, but, much like Duke, they're losing too many games they shouldn't. An 11-point home loss to Missouri is the fourth loss in five for the Cowboys. (The win was a double OT decision over Texas Tech.) Wins over Pitt, Syracuse, Texas, and Missouri State are keeping the Cowboys in. If things don't change, the Committee may ask "what have you done lately" about Okie State and keep them out.
Four teams are out this week, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Villanova, and Arkansas. The Bulldogs dropped two big games this week: Monday at home to Santa Clara, which gave the Broncos the WCC lead and Saturday's heartbreaker to Memphis. If Josh Heytvelt is indeed charged on Tuesday and his suspension lasts for the remainder of the season, the Zags chances will hinge on the conference tournament in Portland. K-State dropped a 13-point decision to a terrible Nebraska team. Villanova barely falls out after dropping a close one to Georgetown on Saturday. (Rhode Island currently holds first in the A-10, which means Xavier steals the Wildcats' at-large bid for the week.) Arkansas lost badly to Miss. State and beat Ole Miss. That split puts the Razorbacks two games below .500 in the lacklustre SEC West and out of this week's bracket.
With that here are the three new at-larges this week...
Louisville - two huge road wins at Pitt and Marquette get them in
Maryland - three good wins in a row Duke, @ tricky NC State, and @ Clemson put the Terps back in
Georgia Tech- won four in a row before falling to Duke today
Breakdown by Conference
ACC - 8 (North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Maryland)
Big East - 6 (Pittsburgh, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville)
Pac-10 - 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, USC)
Big 12 - 5 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech)
SEC - 5 (Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama)
Big 10 - 4 (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue)
Missouri Valley - 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West - 3 (Air Force, BYU, UNLV)
Atlantic 10 - 2 (Rhode Island, Xavier)
Horizon - 2 (Butler, Wright State)
Last Four In
Louisville
Maryland
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Last Four Out
Appalachian State
Gonzaga
Syracuse
Villanova
Next Four Out
Bradley
Drexel
Illinois
Michigan State
BracketBuster Saturday was helpful for three teams in particular. Winthrop's demolition of Missouri State means they're a serious contender to get a mid-range seed. Some commentators were saying 8 or 9. I don't think they'll be higher than a 10 myself, which is why they're an 11 this week. Appalachian State's road win at Wichita State means the Mountaineers are a serious at-large contender, while the result may have ended the Wheat Shockers' at-large hopes. App State's resume is a messy one though, with several good wins (Virginia and Vandy in Puerto Rico, @ VCU), several explainable losses (@ Virginia Tech, Wake, and Clemson...though the margins to the Hokies and Tigers were huge), and a few real headscratchers (losing to Elon at home and @ Furman and UNC-Greensboro could be problematic). Drexel's thrilling win at Creighton shows that the Dragons may also be an at-large threat, but they need to take care of business in their final two CAA games and get far in the conference tournament to really have a chance. (Syracuse and Villanova getting back in the field would also help Drexel's quality win total.)
There will be another bracket (with more changes I'm sure) in a week.
E-mail me.
# posted by Chris @ 19:29 
