25 February 2007
Two Weeks and Counting...
The big day is just about here. The conference tournament season kicks off at mid-week with many one-bid leagues (and a couple of multi-bid ones) leading off. For multi-bid leagues, maybe the next 14 days will bring some clarity, but I doubt it. Gary Walters, the Athletic Director at Princeton and chair of the Selection Committee was on CBS this afternoon and talked about many of the same frustrations I've had over the past 20 or so hours putting this bracket together. (How I do that is a topic for another day.) 1) There's a lot of bunching in the middle of the major conferences. 2) It's difficult to figure out the better teams in these bunches because, outside of the Pac-10 and Missouri Valley, all of the other leagues in the top 8 (BCS conferences plus the MVC and Memphis and the 11 Dwarves, um, I mean Conference USA) play an unbalanced schedule. For example, team with a 7-9 Big East record at the end of the season could be better than a 9-7 team in the same league based on their opponents. Walters said he expects conference tournaments to be more important than usual. Plus, he also revealed that the Committee is getting together a day early, primarily to work their way through the seeding process.
Might I recommend a week??!! Right now, we appear to have teams in roughly five tiers.
1) The Cream of the Crop: This includes this week's one seeds, UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Florida (Note the change in order: Gators are perilously close to falling to the two line. I was almost going to do it, until Wisconsin lost their second game in a week.). As the top 2 seed, the Badgers also fit in this group.
2) The "Good, but Not Quite There" group: The rest of this week's 2 seeds fit here: Kansas, Texas A&M (both stung by their schedules and weakness of the bottom of the Big 12), and Georgetown (who's unstoppable at the moment, just ask the team they traded spots with). The three most solid 3 seeds are also in this group: Memphis (they're just not being tested in the conference and can't hit free throws), Pitt (a former 2, desperately in need a healthy Aaron Gray), and Washington State.
3) The "Jockeying for a Protected Seed" group: Southern Illinois moves up to a 3 this week. Am I convinced the Salukis are that good? Not really. Really I think anybody from SIU down to the 6 line is interchangable to some degree. Notre Dame, Butler, Oregon, and Marquette make up the 4 line. The Irish come up after beating the Eagles Saturday and three wins they couldn't afford not to get beforehand (at least from a seeding perspective). Butler can't afford to slip up in the Horizon League tournament (more on that in a bit). The Ducks are perhaps breaking out of their inconsistent form after sweeping the Washington schools. Marquette's early season results (and the 5 and 6 line teams' obvious flaws) are keeping them afloat. Pitt next Saturday at the Bradley Center may decide whether they stay here or fall down. The 5s are Virginia Tech (BC win was good, but getting swept by NC State doesn't sit well.), Nevada (They'd be higher if not for a 1-1 record against the Top 50.), Virginia (3rd in the ACC counts for something), and Duke (if they keep it up, they're a protected seed). The 6s are all knocking on the door to some degree: BYU (schedule strength keeps them down here), Texas (coming together at the right time), Louisville (same thing, especially on the road), and Air Force. (Losing to TCU and their 202 RPI is bad news. Keep in mind this is an institution that has never won a game in its conference tournament. They're currently in the 3 spot and staring at a quarterfinal matchup with a Utah team that beat them once. A loss there wouldn't keep them out, but it wouldn't be good for the Zoomies confidence.)
4) The "We're Here, and We're Not Going to Survive the First Weekend" group: lines 7 through 9. The teams here are just too inconsistent. There are a lot of teams here (like Kentucky, Indiana, and Boston College) who were a bit higher earlier in the season who are having trouble. I mean, they're not seriously going to be out, but they're forcing themselves into more difficult matchups by struggling through February.
5) The "Those of You Who Think the Bubble is Soapy are Wrong, It's Gum. How Do We Know? We're Stuck Here" group: Lines 10, 11, and my lone at-large on line 12. These teams are seriously flawed and replaceable. The only problem is, the teams below them are also seriously flawed and replaceable. This week that means that four at-larges fall out, and they're replaced by four new ones.
Off the Board
Georgia Tech - I agonized over this one. The Jackets really need to cheer for Butler in the Horizon League, so an at-large spot opens up. 6-8 in the ACC is dicey, a win over UVa would've solidified their bid. Closing with UNC and BC at home is helpful. I think if they get a split and win their first ACC tourney game, they get in.
Oklahoma State - I didn't agonize here. The Cowboys are the only team in the top 100 who haven't won on the road. They've also lost 6 of their last 7, including noggin scratchers at Colorado and against Missouri at home.
Alabama - If you're trying to build a tournament resume, losing to Auburn at home isn't an impression you want to leave. It's kinda like saying "I love to make personal long-distance calls on company time" on a real resume.
Clemson - Another year, another Tiger Collapse (R). 5-9 in the ACC and losers of 7 of their last 8. Yikes!
In their place...
Michigan State and Illinois - two Big Ten teams who are turning it on at the right time. Illini don't have a bad loss, Spartan wins over Wisconsin and Indiana this week boosted them considerably.
Villanova - The Wildcats are back. Phenomenal computer numbers, smattering of good wins and lack of suspect losses (4-6 vs. the top 50, 8-9 vs. the top 100) make them a 10 seed.
Syracuse - Back, but for how long. Orange have two very difficult games to close the regular season: the Georgetown steamroller in the Dome tomorrow night and at Nova on Saturday. I think a split keeps them in. They're finally winning the games they need to win. This, their 20 wins, and the fact their guaranteed a winning league record pushed them over Georgia Tech (who's not assured of either) for this week. (SU's schedule strength in conference is troublesome, however.)
Last Four In
Illinois
Missouri State
Syracuse
Texas Tech
Last Four Out
Alabama
Drexel
Georgia Tech
Oklahoma State
Next Four Out
Appalachian State
Bradley
Clemson
San Diego State
Conference tournaments start later this week. Here's a quick rundown of who ended up winning the conferences who are ready to start elimination play.
America East - Mike Lonergan's Vermont side took the regular season crown and swept 2-seed Albany. If they survive their first two games in Boston, the Catamounts host the final.
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State hosts the conference tournament, but the Bucs need to watch out for Nashville rivals Lipscomb and Belmont. Jacksonville's late season run to grab third place means ETSU could meet Lipscomb in the semis.
Big South - Winthrop ran the table during the regular season and has home court advantage all the way through.
Colonial - It's going to be a very exciting four days of basketball in Richmond. VCU won the regular season, but ODU, Drexel, and Hofstra will all be up for the challenge. The Rams could meet the Dragons in the semifinals. VCU won at Drexel by 7 in Philly in the two teams only meeting of the season.
Horizon - Wright State won some tiebreaker and will host the final if they get there. (This is despite the fact that MidMajority.com and Ken Pomeroy's RPI site both list Butler first.) Butler gets the two seed, which is bad on two fronts. 1) They don't host the final. 2) They face a semi with rapidly improving Loyola. The Ramblers just beat the Bulldogs at Hinkle on Thursday. I think an at-large bid will be lost because of this situation.
Ivy - Penn can win the league (and be the first team in the field of 65) with a home win against nearest rivals Yale Friday night.
Metro Atlantic - Marist won a thriller against Siena Saturday afternoon to take the regular season crown. The Foxes will be challenged by the Saints and Niagara in Bridgeport.
Mid-Continent - Oral Roberts won the regular season by two full games over Oakland, but lost to the Grizzlies on Saturday. Golden Eagles will have the virtual home court in Tulsa for the rubber match if there is one.
Mid-Eastern - This conference's tournament doesn't get started until the end of Championship Weeks, but Delaware State won the regular season already.
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois won the regular season and is a lock for an at-large. Will they win "Arch Madness"? I think Creighton, Missouri State, and Bradley have good chances, and Wichita State and Northern Iowa have something to prove.
Northeast - Central Connecticut State ran away with the regular season, and will host the final if they get there. Howie Dickenman's Blue Devils have a 4-0 record against their nearest challengers in the league, Sacred Heart and Quinnipiac.
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay won the conference by three games over Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky, and last year's champs, Murray State. The Governors dropped road games to Tech and Murray.
Patriot - The Patriot League will announce whether Holy Cross or Bucknell gets the top seed in the tournament tomorrow. They use RPI as the tiebreaker. Currently, the Crusaders are 69 and the Bison 85 (according to KenPom.com). Since both teams beat opponents with RPIs over 200 this weekend, I think the final will be in Worcester. Advantage: Crusaders
Southern - Davidson won the regular season crown and Appalachian State won the North Division. The two best teams in the league are on the fringes of at-large discussion, so they can't afford to lose before the final.
Sun Belt - South Alabama won the regular season. Western Kentucky will, as always, be their stiffest opposition. The Cajundome shouldn't give either team too big of an advantage.
West Coast - Gonzaga is back in a tie with Santa Clara atop the league. The Bulldogs close the regular season at San Diego Monday, while the Broncos are at Pepperdine. The conference tournament starts in Portland on Friday.
Three other conferences also have regular season champions:
Conference USA - Memphis
SEC - Florida
WAC - Nevada
Another bracket in a week. Then I'll start more regular updates as conference tournaments wrap up.
E-mail me.
The big day is just about here. The conference tournament season kicks off at mid-week with many one-bid leagues (and a couple of multi-bid ones) leading off. For multi-bid leagues, maybe the next 14 days will bring some clarity, but I doubt it. Gary Walters, the Athletic Director at Princeton and chair of the Selection Committee was on CBS this afternoon and talked about many of the same frustrations I've had over the past 20 or so hours putting this bracket together. (How I do that is a topic for another day.) 1) There's a lot of bunching in the middle of the major conferences. 2) It's difficult to figure out the better teams in these bunches because, outside of the Pac-10 and Missouri Valley, all of the other leagues in the top 8 (BCS conferences plus the MVC and Memphis and the 11 Dwarves, um, I mean Conference USA) play an unbalanced schedule. For example, team with a 7-9 Big East record at the end of the season could be better than a 9-7 team in the same league based on their opponents. Walters said he expects conference tournaments to be more important than usual. Plus, he also revealed that the Committee is getting together a day early, primarily to work their way through the seeding process.
Might I recommend a week??!! Right now, we appear to have teams in roughly five tiers.
1) The Cream of the Crop: This includes this week's one seeds, UCLA, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Florida (Note the change in order: Gators are perilously close to falling to the two line. I was almost going to do it, until Wisconsin lost their second game in a week.). As the top 2 seed, the Badgers also fit in this group.
2) The "Good, but Not Quite There" group: The rest of this week's 2 seeds fit here: Kansas, Texas A&M (both stung by their schedules and weakness of the bottom of the Big 12), and Georgetown (who's unstoppable at the moment, just ask the team they traded spots with). The three most solid 3 seeds are also in this group: Memphis (they're just not being tested in the conference and can't hit free throws), Pitt (a former 2, desperately in need a healthy Aaron Gray), and Washington State.
3) The "Jockeying for a Protected Seed" group: Southern Illinois moves up to a 3 this week. Am I convinced the Salukis are that good? Not really. Really I think anybody from SIU down to the 6 line is interchangable to some degree. Notre Dame, Butler, Oregon, and Marquette make up the 4 line. The Irish come up after beating the Eagles Saturday and three wins they couldn't afford not to get beforehand (at least from a seeding perspective). Butler can't afford to slip up in the Horizon League tournament (more on that in a bit). The Ducks are perhaps breaking out of their inconsistent form after sweeping the Washington schools. Marquette's early season results (and the 5 and 6 line teams' obvious flaws) are keeping them afloat. Pitt next Saturday at the Bradley Center may decide whether they stay here or fall down. The 5s are Virginia Tech (BC win was good, but getting swept by NC State doesn't sit well.), Nevada (They'd be higher if not for a 1-1 record against the Top 50.), Virginia (3rd in the ACC counts for something), and Duke (if they keep it up, they're a protected seed). The 6s are all knocking on the door to some degree: BYU (schedule strength keeps them down here), Texas (coming together at the right time), Louisville (same thing, especially on the road), and Air Force. (Losing to TCU and their 202 RPI is bad news. Keep in mind this is an institution that has never won a game in its conference tournament. They're currently in the 3 spot and staring at a quarterfinal matchup with a Utah team that beat them once. A loss there wouldn't keep them out, but it wouldn't be good for the Zoomies confidence.)
4) The "We're Here, and We're Not Going to Survive the First Weekend" group: lines 7 through 9. The teams here are just too inconsistent. There are a lot of teams here (like Kentucky, Indiana, and Boston College) who were a bit higher earlier in the season who are having trouble. I mean, they're not seriously going to be out, but they're forcing themselves into more difficult matchups by struggling through February.
5) The "Those of You Who Think the Bubble is Soapy are Wrong, It's Gum. How Do We Know? We're Stuck Here" group: Lines 10, 11, and my lone at-large on line 12. These teams are seriously flawed and replaceable. The only problem is, the teams below them are also seriously flawed and replaceable. This week that means that four at-larges fall out, and they're replaced by four new ones.
Off the Board
Georgia Tech - I agonized over this one. The Jackets really need to cheer for Butler in the Horizon League, so an at-large spot opens up. 6-8 in the ACC is dicey, a win over UVa would've solidified their bid. Closing with UNC and BC at home is helpful. I think if they get a split and win their first ACC tourney game, they get in.
Oklahoma State - I didn't agonize here. The Cowboys are the only team in the top 100 who haven't won on the road. They've also lost 6 of their last 7, including noggin scratchers at Colorado and against Missouri at home.
Alabama - If you're trying to build a tournament resume, losing to Auburn at home isn't an impression you want to leave. It's kinda like saying "I love to make personal long-distance calls on company time" on a real resume.
Clemson - Another year, another Tiger Collapse (R). 5-9 in the ACC and losers of 7 of their last 8. Yikes!
In their place...
Michigan State and Illinois - two Big Ten teams who are turning it on at the right time. Illini don't have a bad loss, Spartan wins over Wisconsin and Indiana this week boosted them considerably.
Villanova - The Wildcats are back. Phenomenal computer numbers, smattering of good wins and lack of suspect losses (4-6 vs. the top 50, 8-9 vs. the top 100) make them a 10 seed.
Syracuse - Back, but for how long. Orange have two very difficult games to close the regular season: the Georgetown steamroller in the Dome tomorrow night and at Nova on Saturday. I think a split keeps them in. They're finally winning the games they need to win. This, their 20 wins, and the fact their guaranteed a winning league record pushed them over Georgia Tech (who's not assured of either) for this week. (SU's schedule strength in conference is troublesome, however.)
Last Four In
Illinois
Missouri State
Syracuse
Texas Tech
Last Four Out
Alabama
Drexel
Georgia Tech
Oklahoma State
Next Four Out
Appalachian State
Bradley
Clemson
San Diego State
Conference tournaments start later this week. Here's a quick rundown of who ended up winning the conferences who are ready to start elimination play.
America East - Mike Lonergan's Vermont side took the regular season crown and swept 2-seed Albany. If they survive their first two games in Boston, the Catamounts host the final.
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State hosts the conference tournament, but the Bucs need to watch out for Nashville rivals Lipscomb and Belmont. Jacksonville's late season run to grab third place means ETSU could meet Lipscomb in the semis.
Big South - Winthrop ran the table during the regular season and has home court advantage all the way through.
Colonial - It's going to be a very exciting four days of basketball in Richmond. VCU won the regular season, but ODU, Drexel, and Hofstra will all be up for the challenge. The Rams could meet the Dragons in the semifinals. VCU won at Drexel by 7 in Philly in the two teams only meeting of the season.
Horizon - Wright State won some tiebreaker and will host the final if they get there. (This is despite the fact that MidMajority.com and Ken Pomeroy's RPI site both list Butler first.) Butler gets the two seed, which is bad on two fronts. 1) They don't host the final. 2) They face a semi with rapidly improving Loyola. The Ramblers just beat the Bulldogs at Hinkle on Thursday. I think an at-large bid will be lost because of this situation.
Ivy - Penn can win the league (and be the first team in the field of 65) with a home win against nearest rivals Yale Friday night.
Metro Atlantic - Marist won a thriller against Siena Saturday afternoon to take the regular season crown. The Foxes will be challenged by the Saints and Niagara in Bridgeport.
Mid-Continent - Oral Roberts won the regular season by two full games over Oakland, but lost to the Grizzlies on Saturday. Golden Eagles will have the virtual home court in Tulsa for the rubber match if there is one.
Mid-Eastern - This conference's tournament doesn't get started until the end of Championship Weeks, but Delaware State won the regular season already.
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois won the regular season and is a lock for an at-large. Will they win "Arch Madness"? I think Creighton, Missouri State, and Bradley have good chances, and Wichita State and Northern Iowa have something to prove.
Northeast - Central Connecticut State ran away with the regular season, and will host the final if they get there. Howie Dickenman's Blue Devils have a 4-0 record against their nearest challengers in the league, Sacred Heart and Quinnipiac.
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay won the conference by three games over Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky, and last year's champs, Murray State. The Governors dropped road games to Tech and Murray.
Patriot - The Patriot League will announce whether Holy Cross or Bucknell gets the top seed in the tournament tomorrow. They use RPI as the tiebreaker. Currently, the Crusaders are 69 and the Bison 85 (according to KenPom.com). Since both teams beat opponents with RPIs over 200 this weekend, I think the final will be in Worcester. Advantage: Crusaders
Southern - Davidson won the regular season crown and Appalachian State won the North Division. The two best teams in the league are on the fringes of at-large discussion, so they can't afford to lose before the final.
Sun Belt - South Alabama won the regular season. Western Kentucky will, as always, be their stiffest opposition. The Cajundome shouldn't give either team too big of an advantage.
West Coast - Gonzaga is back in a tie with Santa Clara atop the league. The Bulldogs close the regular season at San Diego Monday, while the Broncos are at Pepperdine. The conference tournament starts in Portland on Friday.
Three other conferences also have regular season champions:
Conference USA - Memphis
SEC - Florida
WAC - Nevada
Another bracket in a week. Then I'll start more regular updates as conference tournaments wrap up.
E-mail me.
# posted by Chris @ 17:55 
