06 March 2007
Five Short Days
That's all that's left. Since it's been over a week since my last projection, there are lots of changes in the first bracket of the final week.
The changes to the top two seed lines are minor. Ohio State and UNC flip places on the top line. I seriously considered moving Kansas up onto the top line in place of either Florida (since the Jayhawks did beat the Gators in Vegas) or Carolina, but decided against it. I think the relative weakness of the Big 12 this year will keep both the Jayhawks and Texas A&M on the 2 line, but we'll have to see what happens in the major conference tournaments later this week. Georgetown moves up on the 2 line and Wisconsin moves down, but at the moment Memphis is really the only team that could crack this line. The fact they play in the conference of the 11 dwarves makes me leery to move them up further, however.
So, my three seeds for today are the Tigers, Pitt, Washington State, and Maryland (!). Since I released my bracket last week before the Terps beat UNC, I didn't give them credit for the win. So, they remained a 10 seed. Currently, Maryland is the hottest team in the country, so they are rewarded with a huge jump.
The 4 line has three newcomers: Virginia and Louisville moving up, moving down. The Cavs move up despite dropping two of their last four (to Southern IllinoisMiami and Wake Forest, no less). It's really a function of other teams (Duke and Virginia Tech to name two) not winning and Nevada's terrible out-of-conference schedule. Marquette hangs around on this line for the same reason. Louisville is here as second-place finisher in the Big East. Southern Illinois drops down from the 3 line after losing to Creighton in the Missouri Valley final Sunday. Notre Dame and Oregon fall to the 6 line mostly because of their recent schedules. Butler falls to a 7 seed because of their recent struggles. The Bulldogs could free up an auto-bid tonight if they beat Wright State at the Nutter Center for the Horizon title.
Two teams fell out of the bracket this week: Purdue and Texas Tech. I'll discuss how they can get back in (and the chances of their other bubble brethren) as I blog during Friday afternoon's games. Georgia Tech and Drexel replace them. The Yellow Jackets ACC schedule and some of their non-conference opponents put them back in. (OK, the win over UNC helped too.) Drexel's non-conference road wins (and Old Dominion's loss to George Mason in the Colonial semis) put them in for now. I think the big six conference tournaments will create lots of chaos with the field this year. A few of the teams in my Last Four Out and Next Four Out groups can still sneak a bid with a couple of wins, and a well-placed loss by an at-large on the 9 to 12 lines.
Last Four In
Drexel
Missouri State
Stanford
West Virginia
Last Four Out
Clemson
Old Dominion
Purdue
Texas Tech
Next Four Out
Alabama
Arkansas
Bradley
Kansas State
Breakdown by Conference
Big East: 8 (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC: 7 (North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, USC, Stanford)
Big 10: 4 (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois)
SEC: 4 (Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky)
Big 12: 3 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas)
Missouri Valley: 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West: 3 (BYU, UNLV, Air Force)
Atlantic 10: 2 (UMass, Xavier)
Colonial: 2 (Virginia Commonwealth, Drexel)
Horizon: 2 (Butler, Wright State)
Next bracket will arrive Friday night.
E-mail me.
That's all that's left. Since it's been over a week since my last projection, there are lots of changes in the first bracket of the final week.
The changes to the top two seed lines are minor. Ohio State and UNC flip places on the top line. I seriously considered moving Kansas up onto the top line in place of either Florida (since the Jayhawks did beat the Gators in Vegas) or Carolina, but decided against it. I think the relative weakness of the Big 12 this year will keep both the Jayhawks and Texas A&M on the 2 line, but we'll have to see what happens in the major conference tournaments later this week. Georgetown moves up on the 2 line and Wisconsin moves down, but at the moment Memphis is really the only team that could crack this line. The fact they play in the conference of the 11 dwarves makes me leery to move them up further, however.
So, my three seeds for today are the Tigers, Pitt, Washington State, and Maryland (!). Since I released my bracket last week before the Terps beat UNC, I didn't give them credit for the win. So, they remained a 10 seed. Currently, Maryland is the hottest team in the country, so they are rewarded with a huge jump.
The 4 line has three newcomers: Virginia and Louisville moving up, moving down. The Cavs move up despite dropping two of their last four (to Southern IllinoisMiami and Wake Forest, no less). It's really a function of other teams (Duke and Virginia Tech to name two) not winning and Nevada's terrible out-of-conference schedule. Marquette hangs around on this line for the same reason. Louisville is here as second-place finisher in the Big East. Southern Illinois drops down from the 3 line after losing to Creighton in the Missouri Valley final Sunday. Notre Dame and Oregon fall to the 6 line mostly because of their recent schedules. Butler falls to a 7 seed because of their recent struggles. The Bulldogs could free up an auto-bid tonight if they beat Wright State at the Nutter Center for the Horizon title.
Two teams fell out of the bracket this week: Purdue and Texas Tech. I'll discuss how they can get back in (and the chances of their other bubble brethren) as I blog during Friday afternoon's games. Georgia Tech and Drexel replace them. The Yellow Jackets ACC schedule and some of their non-conference opponents put them back in. (OK, the win over UNC helped too.) Drexel's non-conference road wins (and Old Dominion's loss to George Mason in the Colonial semis) put them in for now. I think the big six conference tournaments will create lots of chaos with the field this year. A few of the teams in my Last Four Out and Next Four Out groups can still sneak a bid with a couple of wins, and a well-placed loss by an at-large on the 9 to 12 lines.
Last Four In
Drexel
Missouri State
Stanford
West Virginia
Last Four Out
Clemson
Old Dominion
Purdue
Texas Tech
Next Four Out
Alabama
Arkansas
Bradley
Kansas State
Breakdown by Conference
Big East: 8 (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC: 7 (North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, USC, Stanford)
Big 10: 4 (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois)
SEC: 4 (Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky)
Big 12: 3 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas)
Missouri Valley: 3 (Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State)
Mountain West: 3 (BYU, UNLV, Air Force)
Atlantic 10: 2 (UMass, Xavier)
Colonial: 2 (Virginia Commonwealth, Drexel)
Horizon: 2 (Butler, Wright State)
Next bracket will arrive Friday night.
E-mail me.
# posted by Chris @ 19:54 
