13 March 2007

 
Pick Time

Since Wednesday night is trivia night and it's probably not a good idea to make picks when buzzed or outright drunk, my picks are ready in time for the play-in game.

However, before we take a look at 2007, let's take a look back at 2006.

First round: 20-12 (.625 - bleh)
Second round: 11-5 (.688 - better)
Regional Semis: 2-6 (.250 - huh? UCLA and UConn were the only two right.)
Regional Finals: 1-3 (.250 - terrible. I only had UCLA in the Final Four)
Rest of the way: 0-3 (.000 - "bizarrely dreadful" to quote Simon Cowell. I drank the UConn-Duke Kool-Aid. Two teams I'm not fond of. That'll teach me.)
Total tournament: 34-29 (.540 - not good at all)

Considering my picks usaully stack up in the 66 to 70 percent range, I'm hoping last year was an abberation. Perhaps I do need to drink when making these after all!

So (gulp) here we go with 2007.

MIDWEST
Round One
Florida (of course)
Purdue over 'Zona, since the Wildcats are one of the worst defensive teams I've seen in 25 years of watching basketball.
Butler over ODU in a close one.
Maryland over Davidson, also in a close one.
Notre Dame over a feisty Winthrop (This one could be a game for the ages. If you like good shooting, get to a bar for it if it's not on locally.)
Oregon
Georgia Tech over UNLV since I think the Jackets can make a run.
Wisconsin

An aside - There are two Pacific time zone sites this year, that means there are two 5 p.m. games that will have limited distribution because of local news. On Thursday at about 5:10 in Sacramento, GW will play Vanderbilt. On Friday at around 5:05 in Spokane, Notre Dame will play Winthrop. Now, I am a geography whiz (so you'll have to trust me on this if you're not), but I noticed none of those teams are Western. In the first games of those doubleheaders, Washington State will play Oral Roberts and Oregon will play Miami University. (Gee, Chris, I just looked at a map and noticed that two of those teams definitely qualify as Western.) Last year, the 5:00 game in San Diego (granted it was delayed by an overzealous bomb-sniffing dog) was UCLA-Belmont. What was CBS thinking?!

Round Two
Florida again
Maryland will get a real test from Butler, but will advance.
Oregon over Notre Dame in another lights out shooting exhibition.
Georgia Tech over Wisconsin, as the Badgers get exposed.

Regional Semifinals
Florida over Maryland
Oregon over Georgia Tech, as Aaron Brooks's experience will be too much.

Regional Final
Florida
over Oregon, as the Gators overall experience will be too much.

WEST
Round One
Kansas
Villanova over a lackluster Kentucky team.
Illinois, who maybe shouldn't be in the field, over an unpredicatable Virginia Tech team.
Southern Illinois over Holy Cross in a defensive battle.
Virginia Commonwealth will squeak by Duke.
Pitt will get a battle from Wright State, but will survive.
Gonzaga over Indiana in a matchup I struggled with. It will be the second straight tourney win over the Hoosiers for the Zags.
UCLA

Round Two
Kansas
Southern Illinois will win the Bruce Weber Bowl.
Pitt survives the Rams.
UCLA gets a second weekend in California with a win over Gonzaga for the second straight year.

Regional Semifinals
Kansas over SIU
UCLA over Pitt in the Ben Howland Bowl.

Regional Final
UCLA
over Kansas, as the Bruins benefit from the semi-home advantage in San Jose.

EAST
Round One
North Carolina
Marquette over Michigan State, in one of the many student-pupil matchups we have or could have this year.
Arkansas shocks an overseeded USC.
Texas over New Mexico State.
George Washington over a Vandy team that can't win away from Memorial Gym. (They're playing in Sacramento for crying out loud!)
Washington State
Texas Tech over BC in a knock-down, drag-out fight.
Georgetown

Round Two
North Carolina
Texas wins the old school SWC battle.
Washington State beats GW.
Georgetown

Regional Semifinals
North Carolina over Texas, especially if no one other than Kevin Durant shows up for the Longhorns.
Georgetown over Wazzu in a surprisingly good game.

Regional Final
Georgetown
pulls it together to beat UNC.

SOUTH
Round One
Ohio State
Xavier over BYU.
Tennessee over an overseeded Long Beach State team.
Virginia may lose to Albany, but that's not my pick.
Louisville will get beat up on the inside by Stanford, but pull it out because of an unfair semi-home court advantage.
Texas A&M
Creighton over Nevada in a game that truly could go either way.
Memphis

Round Two
Ohio State in the Thad Matta Bowl.
Tennessee ends Virginia's season.
Texas A&M survives the Cards, probably because of some strategically placed UK fans.
Memphis barely gets by Creighton.

Regional Semifinals
Ohio State gets by Tennessee
Texas A&M uses the homecourt advantage of playing in San Antonio to beat Memphis.

Regional Final
Texas A&M
gets to the Final Four by winning in their own backyard, much like a certain 3 seed in 2003 who I'm quite fond of.

National Semifinals
Florida over UCLA in a game similar to last year's final.
Georgetown over Texas A&M. Too much size.

National Final
Florida over Georgetown because of their experience.

I'll check in on Sunday or Monday night with an early round recap.

E-mail me.


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