09 March 2007
Selection Friday Projection
I would have had this bracket done hours ago if not for some technical difficulties (my HTML editor ate my bracket, uh, twice) and the fact that two at-large bids disappeared and two of the teams on my four line three and a half hours ago lost.
There was a bit of a shakeup on the top line, Ohio State has a tenuous hold on the #1 overall spot and UCLA has slipped to number 2. Kansas replaces North Carolina as a 1. The Jayhawks are fourth overall, while Florida is third. The Tar Heels and Jayhawks would meet in a regional final according to this projection. Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Memphis make up the rest of the two line. The Tigers replace Texas A&M, who were last second losers to Oklahoma State tonight.
The Aggies are joined on line 3 by holdovers Pitt and Washington State and newcomers Southern Illinois, who gained by not playing since Sunday.
My four line meanwhile looks radically different now than it did an hour ago. Nevada and Virginia both lost in that time and tumbled. UNLV made a huge jump from the 8 line. (I'm playing around with a new formula comparing victories to schedule strength, so the Rebels benefited from my calculations.) Oregon and Texas are new arrivals from line 6, while Louisville stays put. Marquette pays the price for losing to Pitt twice in a week, dropping from a 4 to a 6.
Nevada's loss to Utah State and the fact Xavier got bounced out of the A-10 tourney by Rhode Island means one at-large bid is definitely gone, and two are probably gone. I feel the Musketeers are fairly safe as an at-large, given this year's crop. Nevada is a given. That means the WAC and Atlantic 10 are both going to get two bids this year. That means my last two teams in at 7:30, Missouri State and Drexel, both had to tumble out. Tomorrow could mean more of a shakeup, especially with Mississippi State and Arkansas playing what amounts to an elimination game in the SEC semifinals. Georgia Tech, Stanford, and West Virginia's bubbles could be bursting soon.
On a last note, there are two things I'm not happy about with this bracket that I hope I'll be able to resolve tomorrow. 1) There's the potential of a second round rematch between Georgetown and Vanderbilt who met earlier in the season in Nashville. This is typically a no-no, but a logjam of ACC teams on the 6 and 7 lines made it hard to create another matchup. 2) Kentucky plays as an 11 seed in Columbus, which is fairly close. Pittsburgh is also fairly close so this isn't as much of a problem as issue #1, but it's still something I'd like to avoid. (Not that playing in Columbus helped the Wildcats back in 2004.)
Last Four In
Georgia Tech
Purdue
Stanford
West Virginia
Last Four Out
Arkansas
Drexel
Missouri State
Texas Tech
Next Four Out
Bradley
Florida State
Kansas State
Mississippi State
Breakdown by Conference
Big East: 8(Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC: 7 (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Arizona, Stanford)
Big 10: 5 (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue)
SEC: 4 (Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky)
Big 12: 3 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas)
Mountain West: 3 (UNLV, BYU, Air Force)
Atlantic 10: 2 (George Washington, Xavier)
Horizon: 2 (Butler, Wright State)
Missouri Valley: 2 (Southern Illinois, Creighton)
Western Athletic: 2 (Nevada, New Mexico State)
Looks like Cal's run through the Pac-10 tournament will end in the semifinals. That's one more autobid that will go to a team that was already guaranteed an at-large. Cardinal, Mountaineers, and Yellow Jackets can have a slightly less restless night now.
I would have had this bracket done hours ago if not for some technical difficulties (my HTML editor ate my bracket, uh, twice) and the fact that two at-large bids disappeared and two of the teams on my four line three and a half hours ago lost.
There was a bit of a shakeup on the top line, Ohio State has a tenuous hold on the #1 overall spot and UCLA has slipped to number 2. Kansas replaces North Carolina as a 1. The Jayhawks are fourth overall, while Florida is third. The Tar Heels and Jayhawks would meet in a regional final according to this projection. Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Memphis make up the rest of the two line. The Tigers replace Texas A&M, who were last second losers to Oklahoma State tonight.
The Aggies are joined on line 3 by holdovers Pitt and Washington State and newcomers Southern Illinois, who gained by not playing since Sunday.
My four line meanwhile looks radically different now than it did an hour ago. Nevada and Virginia both lost in that time and tumbled. UNLV made a huge jump from the 8 line. (I'm playing around with a new formula comparing victories to schedule strength, so the Rebels benefited from my calculations.) Oregon and Texas are new arrivals from line 6, while Louisville stays put. Marquette pays the price for losing to Pitt twice in a week, dropping from a 4 to a 6.
Nevada's loss to Utah State and the fact Xavier got bounced out of the A-10 tourney by Rhode Island means one at-large bid is definitely gone, and two are probably gone. I feel the Musketeers are fairly safe as an at-large, given this year's crop. Nevada is a given. That means the WAC and Atlantic 10 are both going to get two bids this year. That means my last two teams in at 7:30, Missouri State and Drexel, both had to tumble out. Tomorrow could mean more of a shakeup, especially with Mississippi State and Arkansas playing what amounts to an elimination game in the SEC semifinals. Georgia Tech, Stanford, and West Virginia's bubbles could be bursting soon.
On a last note, there are two things I'm not happy about with this bracket that I hope I'll be able to resolve tomorrow. 1) There's the potential of a second round rematch between Georgetown and Vanderbilt who met earlier in the season in Nashville. This is typically a no-no, but a logjam of ACC teams on the 6 and 7 lines made it hard to create another matchup. 2) Kentucky plays as an 11 seed in Columbus, which is fairly close. Pittsburgh is also fairly close so this isn't as much of a problem as issue #1, but it's still something I'd like to avoid. (Not that playing in Columbus helped the Wildcats back in 2004.)
Last Four In
Georgia Tech
Purdue
Stanford
West Virginia
Last Four Out
Arkansas
Drexel
Missouri State
Texas Tech
Next Four Out
Bradley
Florida State
Kansas State
Mississippi State
Breakdown by Conference
Big East: 8(Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia)
ACC: 7 (North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Arizona, Stanford)
Big 10: 5 (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue)
SEC: 4 (Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky)
Big 12: 3 (Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas)
Mountain West: 3 (UNLV, BYU, Air Force)
Atlantic 10: 2 (George Washington, Xavier)
Horizon: 2 (Butler, Wright State)
Missouri Valley: 2 (Southern Illinois, Creighton)
Western Athletic: 2 (Nevada, New Mexico State)
Looks like Cal's run through the Pac-10 tournament will end in the semifinals. That's one more autobid that will go to a team that was already guaranteed an at-large. Cardinal, Mountaineers, and Yellow Jackets can have a slightly less restless night now.
# posted by Chris @ 21:16 
