11 March 2007
Selection Sunday, p.m.
Now that all of the one- or two-bid leagues have wrapped up their conference tournaments, let's take a look at my picks for them from one month ago today.
America East - Vermont won at Albany this afternoon to solidify their lead. That's a sweep for the Catamounts. Since the regular season champ gets to host the tournament final, I'm picking Vermont to win the auto bid.
Result: Albany prevented the Catamounts from getting the season sweep and advanced. 0-1
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State holds a two-game lead over Belmont. The Bucs also have gone 3-1 against the Bruins and their eternal Nashville rivals, Lipscomb, this year. ETSU also hosts the league tourney. That didn't help them last year, but this year they'll be too much. ETSU will be in one month from now.
Result: Belmont completely demolished the Bucs at home. 0-2
Atlantic Ten - This shouldn't be a one-bid league, but it is for the moment. This is traditionally a wild tournament, so I expect that Xavier won't hold on to the auto bid. UMass will make it two bids for the A-10. It could just as easily be GW, Temple, St. Joe's, or Rhode Island making it out, but the Minutemen are tested.
Result: UMass didn't even make the final, GW and Rhode Island did, and the Colonials prevailed. 0-3
Big Sky - Another league where the regular season winner hosts the tournament, so at the moment Weber State would be the host. The Wildcats still have to host second place Montana. I think the Grizzlies will pull it out and host. Montana will get the auto bid again.
Result: Montana got knocked out the semis, and Weber State got the hosting rights anyway and pulled it out. 0-4
Big South - Winthrop is running away with it right now. If they make the final, it will be in Rock Hill. Winthrop will hold off Coastal Carolina to make the tournament and avoid sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Result: VMI made it close, but Winthrop kept an at-large open for another team. 1-4
Big West - Long Beach State goes to Cal State-Fullerton tomorrow for a first place battle. The conference tournament is in Anaheim, so there shouldn't be a real advantage for the 49ers, Titans, or the third-placed UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos. I'm going to go out on a limb here and pick LBSU.
Result: LBSU pulled away late to win it last night. 2-4
Colonial - VCU appeared to have it all wrapped up until they lost to ODU by 16 in Norfolk. That loss also damages the Rams at-large hopes, so the CAA could be a one-bid league this year. The one advantage VCU has is that the conference tournament is in Richmond, which is why they're my pick to survive.
Result: VCU held off George Mason to take the crown. 3-4
Conference USA - One word: Memphis, everyone else is just a really bad pretender.
Result: No one else even had a chance. 4-4
Horizon - As I said before, this one could be a bit interesting depending on Butler and Wright State's stretch runs. I think the Bulldogs will go 3-0 and take the regular season crown, then beat the Raiders for the auto bid at Hinkle. In the end, the team that gets at-large spot 34 will have Butler to thank for taking care of business.
Result: Wright State got it the final at home and took advantage. 4-5
Ivy - No conference tournament here, though there will be a playoff if teams end up tied. I'm going to play the percentages here and pick Penn to win the Ivy.
Result: Good call on my part. 5-5
Metro Atlantic - Marist is the best team in this league from a talent perspective, but Loyola has led for much of the season. The two teams split, each winning at home. I'm not sure if there will be a rubber match in Bridgeport for the auto bid, but I do think Marist will win it.
Result: Siena had other ideas, knocking the Red Foxes out in the semis. Niagara then dispatched the Saints in the final. 5-6
Mid-American - Akron and Toledo both sport 9-2 conference marks at the moment. Rockets beat the Zips in their only regular season meeting yesterday in the Glass City. This is another conference tournament famous for its unpredictability, however. I don't think either team makes it. I'm picking Ohio in an upset.
Result: Well, neither Toledo or Akron made it. Ohio didn't either. However, Miami University used a late bank deposit to get there. 5-7
Mid-Continent - Last year, Oral Roberts finally got the hang of winning the conference tournament in a friendly environment. They'll win it again in Tulsa.
Result: The Eagles did it again. 6-7
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State still has to play its two closest challengers again. They go to Norfolk State (Hornets beat the Spartans earlier) and host Florida A&M (Hornets lost to the Rattlers in Tallahassee). Conference tournament is in Raleigh, and I expect Delaware State to be the class of the league again no matter how they finish the regular season.
Result: Florida A&M used a buzzer beater to knock the Hornets out. 6-8
Northeast - Central Connecticut State has really taken control of this conference, which would give them the chance to host the championship game (if they make it that far). CCSU seems a safe bet.
Result: I like when "safe bets" work out. 7-8
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay holds a three-game lead on Samford at the moment. The Governors also swept the Bulldogs, and with four games left in the regular season it would take an epic collapse for APSU to lose the #1 seed in Nashville. Austin Peay should have more support in a third meeting with Samford, so they're my pick.
Result: While the Govs may have had more support, Eastern Kentucky has the bid. 7-9
Patriot - Holy Cross and Bucknell are currently tied for the league. They've already met twice with each winning on their home court. If they stay 1 and 2, the Crusaders and Bison will host quarterfinal and semifinal action. If they win, they meet at the top-seed's arena. Holy Cross is due to break Bucknell's dominance over the league this season and will do it at the Hart Center the Friday before the bracket comes out.
Result: Crusaders won the rubber match at home. 8-9
Southern - Davidson and Appalachian State are both trying to make it as at-larges should they fail to win the conference tournament. However, I'm not sure either will make it period. The tourney's in Charleston, which gives College of Charleston the advantage, and I think, the bid.
Result: The Cougars came tantalizingly close, effectively ending Appalachian State's at-large chances in the process. Davidson is in. 8-10
Southland - This conference's tournament moves to a neutral site this year, the Campbell Center in Houston. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has waited a few years to get a chance at the Big Dance, and they won't fail at their first attempt.
Result: In a thriller that included clock drama just short of the kind on display in Cleveland on Saturday night, the Islanders claim their first ever league title. 9-10
Southwestern - The SWAC has been very competitive this year, with five teams within two games of the lead. That means there will be a wide-open conference tournament in Birmingham. I pick Jackson State, the strongest team overall, to win the auto bid.
Result: The Tigers beat Mississippi Valley State to make the field. 10-10
Sun Belt - It's hard to believe that South Alabama has three games in the loss column on Western Kentucky. They have a full two-game lead on West Division leaders Louisiana-Monroe. One thing to remember is that the Jags lost to WKU by 22 in Bowling Green and needed OT to beat them in Mobile. I pick Western Kentucky to win a rubber match for the automatic bid.
Result: Both South Alabama and Western Kentucky got bounced. North Texas is the surprise qualifier. 10-11
West Coast - Gonzaga may actually need to win their conference tournament to get in. It's in Portland this year, which shouldn't be much of an advantage to anyone. Gonzaga does it again to ruin Santa Clara's hopes of getting in.
Result: Another good call. The Bulldogs needed this win. 11-11
Western Athletic - Nevada now has a two-game lead on an NMSU team that's starting to fade. These two teams meet in Reno to close out the regular season, but the league tournament is in Las Cruces this year. I think Nevada holds serve to take the regular season crown, but New Mexico State takes advantage of being at home to make this a two bid conference.
Result: Utah State bounced Nevada and the Aggies lost to their New Mexico State counterparts. Final Record: 12-11
Now that all of the one- or two-bid leagues have wrapped up their conference tournaments, let's take a look at my picks for them from one month ago today.
America East - Vermont won at Albany this afternoon to solidify their lead. That's a sweep for the Catamounts. Since the regular season champ gets to host the tournament final, I'm picking Vermont to win the auto bid.
Result: Albany prevented the Catamounts from getting the season sweep and advanced. 0-1
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State holds a two-game lead over Belmont. The Bucs also have gone 3-1 against the Bruins and their eternal Nashville rivals, Lipscomb, this year. ETSU also hosts the league tourney. That didn't help them last year, but this year they'll be too much. ETSU will be in one month from now.
Result: Belmont completely demolished the Bucs at home. 0-2
Atlantic Ten - This shouldn't be a one-bid league, but it is for the moment. This is traditionally a wild tournament, so I expect that Xavier won't hold on to the auto bid. UMass will make it two bids for the A-10. It could just as easily be GW, Temple, St. Joe's, or Rhode Island making it out, but the Minutemen are tested.
Result: UMass didn't even make the final, GW and Rhode Island did, and the Colonials prevailed. 0-3
Big Sky - Another league where the regular season winner hosts the tournament, so at the moment Weber State would be the host. The Wildcats still have to host second place Montana. I think the Grizzlies will pull it out and host. Montana will get the auto bid again.
Result: Montana got knocked out the semis, and Weber State got the hosting rights anyway and pulled it out. 0-4
Big South - Winthrop is running away with it right now. If they make the final, it will be in Rock Hill. Winthrop will hold off Coastal Carolina to make the tournament and avoid sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Result: VMI made it close, but Winthrop kept an at-large open for another team. 1-4
Big West - Long Beach State goes to Cal State-Fullerton tomorrow for a first place battle. The conference tournament is in Anaheim, so there shouldn't be a real advantage for the 49ers, Titans, or the third-placed UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos. I'm going to go out on a limb here and pick LBSU.
Result: LBSU pulled away late to win it last night. 2-4
Colonial - VCU appeared to have it all wrapped up until they lost to ODU by 16 in Norfolk. That loss also damages the Rams at-large hopes, so the CAA could be a one-bid league this year. The one advantage VCU has is that the conference tournament is in Richmond, which is why they're my pick to survive.
Result: VCU held off George Mason to take the crown. 3-4
Conference USA - One word: Memphis, everyone else is just a really bad pretender.
Result: No one else even had a chance. 4-4
Horizon - As I said before, this one could be a bit interesting depending on Butler and Wright State's stretch runs. I think the Bulldogs will go 3-0 and take the regular season crown, then beat the Raiders for the auto bid at Hinkle. In the end, the team that gets at-large spot 34 will have Butler to thank for taking care of business.
Result: Wright State got it the final at home and took advantage. 4-5
Ivy - No conference tournament here, though there will be a playoff if teams end up tied. I'm going to play the percentages here and pick Penn to win the Ivy.
Result: Good call on my part. 5-5
Metro Atlantic - Marist is the best team in this league from a talent perspective, but Loyola has led for much of the season. The two teams split, each winning at home. I'm not sure if there will be a rubber match in Bridgeport for the auto bid, but I do think Marist will win it.
Result: Siena had other ideas, knocking the Red Foxes out in the semis. Niagara then dispatched the Saints in the final. 5-6
Mid-American - Akron and Toledo both sport 9-2 conference marks at the moment. Rockets beat the Zips in their only regular season meeting yesterday in the Glass City. This is another conference tournament famous for its unpredictability, however. I don't think either team makes it. I'm picking Ohio in an upset.
Result: Well, neither Toledo or Akron made it. Ohio didn't either. However, Miami University used a late bank deposit to get there. 5-7
Mid-Continent - Last year, Oral Roberts finally got the hang of winning the conference tournament in a friendly environment. They'll win it again in Tulsa.
Result: The Eagles did it again. 6-7
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State still has to play its two closest challengers again. They go to Norfolk State (Hornets beat the Spartans earlier) and host Florida A&M (Hornets lost to the Rattlers in Tallahassee). Conference tournament is in Raleigh, and I expect Delaware State to be the class of the league again no matter how they finish the regular season.
Result: Florida A&M used a buzzer beater to knock the Hornets out. 6-8
Northeast - Central Connecticut State has really taken control of this conference, which would give them the chance to host the championship game (if they make it that far). CCSU seems a safe bet.
Result: I like when "safe bets" work out. 7-8
Ohio Valley - Austin Peay holds a three-game lead on Samford at the moment. The Governors also swept the Bulldogs, and with four games left in the regular season it would take an epic collapse for APSU to lose the #1 seed in Nashville. Austin Peay should have more support in a third meeting with Samford, so they're my pick.
Result: While the Govs may have had more support, Eastern Kentucky has the bid. 7-9
Patriot - Holy Cross and Bucknell are currently tied for the league. They've already met twice with each winning on their home court. If they stay 1 and 2, the Crusaders and Bison will host quarterfinal and semifinal action. If they win, they meet at the top-seed's arena. Holy Cross is due to break Bucknell's dominance over the league this season and will do it at the Hart Center the Friday before the bracket comes out.
Result: Crusaders won the rubber match at home. 8-9
Southern - Davidson and Appalachian State are both trying to make it as at-larges should they fail to win the conference tournament. However, I'm not sure either will make it period. The tourney's in Charleston, which gives College of Charleston the advantage, and I think, the bid.
Result: The Cougars came tantalizingly close, effectively ending Appalachian State's at-large chances in the process. Davidson is in. 8-10
Southland - This conference's tournament moves to a neutral site this year, the Campbell Center in Houston. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has waited a few years to get a chance at the Big Dance, and they won't fail at their first attempt.
Result: In a thriller that included clock drama just short of the kind on display in Cleveland on Saturday night, the Islanders claim their first ever league title. 9-10
Southwestern - The SWAC has been very competitive this year, with five teams within two games of the lead. That means there will be a wide-open conference tournament in Birmingham. I pick Jackson State, the strongest team overall, to win the auto bid.
Result: The Tigers beat Mississippi Valley State to make the field. 10-10
Sun Belt - It's hard to believe that South Alabama has three games in the loss column on Western Kentucky. They have a full two-game lead on West Division leaders Louisiana-Monroe. One thing to remember is that the Jags lost to WKU by 22 in Bowling Green and needed OT to beat them in Mobile. I pick Western Kentucky to win a rubber match for the automatic bid.
Result: Both South Alabama and Western Kentucky got bounced. North Texas is the surprise qualifier. 10-11
West Coast - Gonzaga may actually need to win their conference tournament to get in. It's in Portland this year, which shouldn't be much of an advantage to anyone. Gonzaga does it again to ruin Santa Clara's hopes of getting in.
Result: Another good call. The Bulldogs needed this win. 11-11
Western Athletic - Nevada now has a two-game lead on an NMSU team that's starting to fade. These two teams meet in Reno to close out the regular season, but the league tournament is in Las Cruces this year. I think Nevada holds serve to take the regular season crown, but New Mexico State takes advantage of being at home to make this a two bid conference.
Result: Utah State bounced Nevada and the Aggies lost to their New Mexico State counterparts. Final Record: 12-11
# posted by Chris @ 09:56 
