11 March 2007
Still Steaming over Syracuse
This season gave the NCAA Men's Basketball Committee a selection and seeding process that involved more challenges than ever before. Unbalanced scheduling in the major conferences produced convoluted conference races and logjams everywhere. With that being said, I can't really fault them for most of their selections and seeding decisions. There were a few that surprised me, so I'm now going to take some time to review the bracket and nitpick.
1 seeds: Florida, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State I was shocked to see the defending champs as the #1 overall seed, especially after the way they sleptwalked through the last couple of weeks of the regular season. I put UCLA on the top line over Kansas, based on the entire season, but the Committee must have liked the way the Jayhawks finished. I can't really fault them for that, especially since the Bruins and Jayhawks would meet in the regional final (if they both get that far).
My picks: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA
2 seeds: Georgetown, Memphis, UCLA, Wisconsin No qualms with these four teams. Aside from the Bruins, these are the four teams I thought would be here.
My picks: Georgetown, Kansas, Memphis, Wisconsin
3 seeds: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, Washington State, I dropped Washington State down to the four line, primarily based on how they finished compared to Texas. The South region is very interesting in terms of some of the geographical decisions. A&M will play in San Antonio, if they get to the Regionals. That puts Ohio State and Memphis at a disadvantage. Why do I say "if"? Well, the Aggies are at a disadvantage in the sub-regional, as they may have to play Louisville in round 2, in Lexington. So much for being a protected seed.
My picks: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M
4 seeds: Maryland, Southern Illinois, Texas, Virginia I have no real arguments here, considering I had everyone here within a seed line. I thought that Virginia's troubles at the end of the regular season and losing in the ACC quarterfinal cost them a spot as a protected seed. They do have a difficult sub-regional, however, with a gutsy Albany team and a potential round two matchup with Tennessee.
My picks: Maryland, Notre Dame, Southern Illinois, Washington State
5 seeds: Butler, Tennessee, USC, Virginia Tech This is where I started to have issues with the seeding part of our program. I think Butler, Tennessee, and USC are all overseeded. I felt the Bulldogs really dropped the ball at the end of the regular season, instead they end up with the seed they would've gotten had the season ended a month ago. USC was good, but nothing special, and certainly not special enough to be four places at the most from a protected seed. Tennessee is very inconsistent, but had a good schedule, which must have helped. Chris Lofton's healthy status must also have helped. I had Virginia Tech a line lower based on NC State's sweep of them and their tendency to take games off.
My picks: Louisville, Nevada, UNLV, Virginia
6 seeds: Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Louisville, Duke I had two of these teams higher (Notre Dame and Louisville) and two lower (Duke and Vandy). I can understand Louisville as a 6 based on how they played early in the season. (They still should have to play outside of their home state.) I felt that Notre Dame was far too consistent and dangerous to be this low. Duke's schedule put them here, but their actual results should put them slightly lower. I can understand Vanderbilt's placement on this line, since they do own wins over a 1 seed (Florida) and a 2 (Georgetown).
My picks: BYU, Creighton, Marquette, Virginia Tech
7 seeds: Boston College, Indiana, Nevada, UNLV Indiana and Boston College are just about spot on here. Nevada's lack of schedule strength probably put them here. (I should've known better.) UNLV's schedule is a little better, so I expected them to be a couple of lines higher.
My picks: Boston College, Tennessee, USC, Vanderbilt
8 seeds: Arizona, BYU, Kentucky, Marquette Arizona and Kentucky have been disappointing this year, UK more so than their Western brethren. I expected Kentucky to be far lower based on their lack of quality wins. I had Arizona here because they've had their moments. I expected Marquette to be a bit higher because of their wins in and out of conference. BYU should've been higher because of how they've played lately. However, the committee probably didn't care much for their schedule strength.
My picks: Duke, Indiana, Michigan State, Xavier
9 seeds: Michigan State, Purdue, Villanova, Xavier These were all right on the button or on the 8 line, which is pretty much a distinction without a difference.
My picks: Arizona, Butler, Purdue, Villanova
10 seeds: Creighton, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Texas Tech I had Georgia Tech here and can understand why Texas Tech is here. (I had them as an 11.) However, Creighton should've been higher, probably not as high as the 6 line where I had them, but at least in an 8/9 game. Gonzaga should've been lower simply because they're not the team they were last year or even earlier this season, especially without Josh Heytvelt.
My picks: Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia Commonwealth, Syracuse
11 seeds: George Washington, Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop I had all of these teams within one line, so I can't really argue with the Committee here.
My picks: Drexel, Kentucky, Illinois, Texas Tech
12 seeds: Arkansas, Illinois, Long Beach State, Old Dominion I had Syracuse and Drexel in instead of Arkansas and Old Dominion. I can understand why the Committee took ODU over the Dragons, since Drexel did lose to the Monarchs twice. However, Drexel's amazing road record should've gotten them in. (Granted losing to Rider and Bill and Mary didn't help their case.) Syracuse has better (read: top 25) wins though, even if the Razorbacks made it further in their conference tournament. Of this group, I think Illinois could've been higher, since their profile isn't terrible. I also think Long Beach State could've been lower, since I wasn't too impressed with them or the Big West this year.
My picks: Davidson, George Washington, Gonzaga, Stanford
13 seeds: Albany, Davidson, Holy Cross, New Mexico State If I would've kept Davidson here today, I would've been 3 for 4. Albany did a great job as a 16, and I had Vermont slotted here if they won the America East. The Committee must be expecting a good effort from the Great Danes this weekend.
My picks: Holy Cross, New Mexico State, Pennsylvania, Holy Cross
14 seeds: Miami University, Oral Roberts, Pennsylvania, Wright State I though the Quakers and Raiders deserved better here. Wright State beat a 5 seed twice! The Eagles and Redhawks are exactly where I thought they'd be.
My picks: Long Beach State, Miami University, Oral Roberts, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
15 seeds: Belmont, North Texas, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Weber State I had North Texas lower based on their relatively low finish in the Sun Belt, Corpus Christi higher because of their decent schedule, and Weber lower because of their weak schedule.
My picks: Albany, Belmont, Eastern Kentucky, Niagara
16 seeds: Central Connecticut State, Eastern Kentucky, Florida A&M, Jackson State, Niagara I had Florida in the play-in game before Kansas was a 1. Now that the Jayhawks are up and playing on Friday, the potential of a Florida-Florida A&M rematch is avoided. I had both the Colonels and Purple Eagles higher because of their schedules.
My picks: Central Connecticut State, Florida A&M, Jackson State, North Texas, Weber State
I'll post more tomorrow and post my picks on Tuesday.
This season gave the NCAA Men's Basketball Committee a selection and seeding process that involved more challenges than ever before. Unbalanced scheduling in the major conferences produced convoluted conference races and logjams everywhere. With that being said, I can't really fault them for most of their selections and seeding decisions. There were a few that surprised me, so I'm now going to take some time to review the bracket and nitpick.
1 seeds: Florida, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State I was shocked to see the defending champs as the #1 overall seed, especially after the way they sleptwalked through the last couple of weeks of the regular season. I put UCLA on the top line over Kansas, based on the entire season, but the Committee must have liked the way the Jayhawks finished. I can't really fault them for that, especially since the Bruins and Jayhawks would meet in the regional final (if they both get that far).
My picks: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA
2 seeds: Georgetown, Memphis, UCLA, Wisconsin No qualms with these four teams. Aside from the Bruins, these are the four teams I thought would be here.
My picks: Georgetown, Kansas, Memphis, Wisconsin
3 seeds: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, Washington State, I dropped Washington State down to the four line, primarily based on how they finished compared to Texas. The South region is very interesting in terms of some of the geographical decisions. A&M will play in San Antonio, if they get to the Regionals. That puts Ohio State and Memphis at a disadvantage. Why do I say "if"? Well, the Aggies are at a disadvantage in the sub-regional, as they may have to play Louisville in round 2, in Lexington. So much for being a protected seed.
My picks: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M
4 seeds: Maryland, Southern Illinois, Texas, Virginia I have no real arguments here, considering I had everyone here within a seed line. I thought that Virginia's troubles at the end of the regular season and losing in the ACC quarterfinal cost them a spot as a protected seed. They do have a difficult sub-regional, however, with a gutsy Albany team and a potential round two matchup with Tennessee.
My picks: Maryland, Notre Dame, Southern Illinois, Washington State
5 seeds: Butler, Tennessee, USC, Virginia Tech This is where I started to have issues with the seeding part of our program. I think Butler, Tennessee, and USC are all overseeded. I felt the Bulldogs really dropped the ball at the end of the regular season, instead they end up with the seed they would've gotten had the season ended a month ago. USC was good, but nothing special, and certainly not special enough to be four places at the most from a protected seed. Tennessee is very inconsistent, but had a good schedule, which must have helped. Chris Lofton's healthy status must also have helped. I had Virginia Tech a line lower based on NC State's sweep of them and their tendency to take games off.
My picks: Louisville, Nevada, UNLV, Virginia
6 seeds: Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Louisville, Duke I had two of these teams higher (Notre Dame and Louisville) and two lower (Duke and Vandy). I can understand Louisville as a 6 based on how they played early in the season. (They still should have to play outside of their home state.) I felt that Notre Dame was far too consistent and dangerous to be this low. Duke's schedule put them here, but their actual results should put them slightly lower. I can understand Vanderbilt's placement on this line, since they do own wins over a 1 seed (Florida) and a 2 (Georgetown).
My picks: BYU, Creighton, Marquette, Virginia Tech
7 seeds: Boston College, Indiana, Nevada, UNLV Indiana and Boston College are just about spot on here. Nevada's lack of schedule strength probably put them here. (I should've known better.) UNLV's schedule is a little better, so I expected them to be a couple of lines higher.
My picks: Boston College, Tennessee, USC, Vanderbilt
8 seeds: Arizona, BYU, Kentucky, Marquette Arizona and Kentucky have been disappointing this year, UK more so than their Western brethren. I expected Kentucky to be far lower based on their lack of quality wins. I had Arizona here because they've had their moments. I expected Marquette to be a bit higher because of their wins in and out of conference. BYU should've been higher because of how they've played lately. However, the committee probably didn't care much for their schedule strength.
My picks: Duke, Indiana, Michigan State, Xavier
9 seeds: Michigan State, Purdue, Villanova, Xavier These were all right on the button or on the 8 line, which is pretty much a distinction without a difference.
My picks: Arizona, Butler, Purdue, Villanova
10 seeds: Creighton, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Texas Tech I had Georgia Tech here and can understand why Texas Tech is here. (I had them as an 11.) However, Creighton should've been higher, probably not as high as the 6 line where I had them, but at least in an 8/9 game. Gonzaga should've been lower simply because they're not the team they were last year or even earlier this season, especially without Josh Heytvelt.
My picks: Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia Commonwealth, Syracuse
11 seeds: George Washington, Stanford, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop I had all of these teams within one line, so I can't really argue with the Committee here.
My picks: Drexel, Kentucky, Illinois, Texas Tech
12 seeds: Arkansas, Illinois, Long Beach State, Old Dominion I had Syracuse and Drexel in instead of Arkansas and Old Dominion. I can understand why the Committee took ODU over the Dragons, since Drexel did lose to the Monarchs twice. However, Drexel's amazing road record should've gotten them in. (Granted losing to Rider and Bill and Mary didn't help their case.) Syracuse has better (read: top 25) wins though, even if the Razorbacks made it further in their conference tournament. Of this group, I think Illinois could've been higher, since their profile isn't terrible. I also think Long Beach State could've been lower, since I wasn't too impressed with them or the Big West this year.
My picks: Davidson, George Washington, Gonzaga, Stanford
13 seeds: Albany, Davidson, Holy Cross, New Mexico State If I would've kept Davidson here today, I would've been 3 for 4. Albany did a great job as a 16, and I had Vermont slotted here if they won the America East. The Committee must be expecting a good effort from the Great Danes this weekend.
My picks: Holy Cross, New Mexico State, Pennsylvania, Holy Cross
14 seeds: Miami University, Oral Roberts, Pennsylvania, Wright State I though the Quakers and Raiders deserved better here. Wright State beat a 5 seed twice! The Eagles and Redhawks are exactly where I thought they'd be.
My picks: Long Beach State, Miami University, Oral Roberts, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
15 seeds: Belmont, North Texas, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Weber State I had North Texas lower based on their relatively low finish in the Sun Belt, Corpus Christi higher because of their decent schedule, and Weber lower because of their weak schedule.
My picks: Albany, Belmont, Eastern Kentucky, Niagara
16 seeds: Central Connecticut State, Eastern Kentucky, Florida A&M, Jackson State, Niagara I had Florida in the play-in game before Kansas was a 1. Now that the Jayhawks are up and playing on Friday, the potential of a Florida-Florida A&M rematch is avoided. I had both the Colonels and Purple Eagles higher because of their schedules.
My picks: Central Connecticut State, Florida A&M, Jackson State, North Texas, Weber State
I'll post more tomorrow and post my picks on Tuesday.
# posted by Chris @ 18:12 
