10 March 2007
Selection Saturday, 11:15 a.m.
Before the games start for today, here's what I'll be watching for over the next 13 hours or so...
Auto Bids - There are several matchups where neither team has an at-large chance.
America East - Albany @ Vermont
Big West - Cal Poly vs. Long Beach State
Mid-American - Miami U. vs. Akron
Mid-Eastern - Florida A&M vs. Delaware State
Southwestern - Mississippi Valley State vs. Jackson State
Albany, Long Beach State, Delaware State, and Mississippi Valley State are all trying to be the double-champions of their conferences. I'm going to say 3 of the 4 will be successful.
Sometime today or tomorrow, I'll review my one-bid league picks from a few weeks ago to see how successful I am as a prognosticator of conference tourney results.
The other auto bids tonight will either provide a conference with a second team in the field or have a big effect on seeding.
In Conference USA, Memphis can sew up a 100 percent record with a win over Houston. A win this morning/afternoon is the only way the Cougars get in.
In the Atlantic 10, either Rhode Island or George Washington will get in. Both of these teams spent brief spells as the conferences auto-bid in earlier brackets. The Colonials project as a 12 if they win, the Rams a 13.
In the WAC, New Mexico State has the home court advantage for their matchup with Utah State. Reggie Theus's team needs to watch it though, as the Utah Aggies seem to play their best at this time of year. I don't think Utah State has at-large hopes if they lose tonight, but remember they were one of my two misses last season. I pick the Aggies to win.
(Wait for it...there you go, a non-prediction prediction)
In the Pac-10 final, USC and Oregon will be playing to move up. I'll probably move the Ducks up to the 3 line if they win (dropping Southern Illinois back to a 4). USC may go all the way up to a 5 or 6 with a win tonight. I don't see either team dropping far with a loss.
In the Big East final, Pitt and Georgetown are basically playing for a 2 seed. Depending on other results, the Hoyas may stay put on the 2 line if they lose.
In the Mountain West, BYU and UNLV are clearly the two best teams and a top-four seed awaits the winner of this matchup. The loser won't be too far off, and will end up on the 5 or 6 line.
In semifinal action today, teams near the bottom of the at-large pool will be watching several games with bated breath.
SEC - People are talking about Arkansas and Mississippi State as a game where the winner is automatically in. Not so fast. It's definitely an elimination game, but I think Arkansas is closer to safe with a win than the Bulldogs because of the Razorbacks' non-conference performance.
Florida can't slip up against Ole Miss. Memphis, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgetown are all knocking on the door for that final one seed.
Big 12 - Kansas State has gained a lot of attention for their demolition of Texas Tech yesterday, and lots of pundits have them in because of it. I don't. I still think their non-conference schedule and the Big 12 North's weakness may cost them. They also can't completely crash out against their in-state rivals today. Oklahoma State also has a chance to crash the party (after looking like a lock for much of January), but will need a big win against Texas to make a really good case. A Wildcat-Cowboy final will have coaches like John Beilein and Trent Johnson looking for the Rolaids this evening and tomorrow afternoon.
Big 10 - Not really much to talk about here. Ohio State is looking to further cement its one seed, while Wisconsin wants to grab one. Purdue and Illinois look to be safe after big wins yesterday. Purdue could definitely help its cause with a performance similar to the one in their second matchup with the Buckeyes in Columbus, a 7-point overtime loss. Illinois lost by 7 to the Badgers in Urbana-Champaign, so they're hoping for a better result today.
ACC - NC State is trying to be Cinderella. They have a damned good chance, considering they're playing Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack demolished the Hokies by 11 in Blacksburg and 25 in Raleigh. UNC will try to keep its hopes of getting back on the top line alive when they take on Boston College, who probably deserves better than a 7 seed. A second consecutive final appearance may take the Eagles higher.
More in a bit...first action of the day starts in 15 minutes.
Before the games start for today, here's what I'll be watching for over the next 13 hours or so...
Auto Bids - There are several matchups where neither team has an at-large chance.
America East - Albany @ Vermont
Big West - Cal Poly vs. Long Beach State
Mid-American - Miami U. vs. Akron
Mid-Eastern - Florida A&M vs. Delaware State
Southwestern - Mississippi Valley State vs. Jackson State
Albany, Long Beach State, Delaware State, and Mississippi Valley State are all trying to be the double-champions of their conferences. I'm going to say 3 of the 4 will be successful.
Sometime today or tomorrow, I'll review my one-bid league picks from a few weeks ago to see how successful I am as a prognosticator of conference tourney results.
The other auto bids tonight will either provide a conference with a second team in the field or have a big effect on seeding.
In Conference USA, Memphis can sew up a 100 percent record with a win over Houston. A win this morning/afternoon is the only way the Cougars get in.
In the Atlantic 10, either Rhode Island or George Washington will get in. Both of these teams spent brief spells as the conferences auto-bid in earlier brackets. The Colonials project as a 12 if they win, the Rams a 13.
In the WAC, New Mexico State has the home court advantage for their matchup with Utah State. Reggie Theus's team needs to watch it though, as the Utah Aggies seem to play their best at this time of year. I don't think Utah State has at-large hopes if they lose tonight, but remember they were one of my two misses last season. I pick the Aggies to win.
(Wait for it...there you go, a non-prediction prediction)
In the Pac-10 final, USC and Oregon will be playing to move up. I'll probably move the Ducks up to the 3 line if they win (dropping Southern Illinois back to a 4). USC may go all the way up to a 5 or 6 with a win tonight. I don't see either team dropping far with a loss.
In the Big East final, Pitt and Georgetown are basically playing for a 2 seed. Depending on other results, the Hoyas may stay put on the 2 line if they lose.
In the Mountain West, BYU and UNLV are clearly the two best teams and a top-four seed awaits the winner of this matchup. The loser won't be too far off, and will end up on the 5 or 6 line.
In semifinal action today, teams near the bottom of the at-large pool will be watching several games with bated breath.
SEC - People are talking about Arkansas and Mississippi State as a game where the winner is automatically in. Not so fast. It's definitely an elimination game, but I think Arkansas is closer to safe with a win than the Bulldogs because of the Razorbacks' non-conference performance.
Florida can't slip up against Ole Miss. Memphis, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgetown are all knocking on the door for that final one seed.
Big 12 - Kansas State has gained a lot of attention for their demolition of Texas Tech yesterday, and lots of pundits have them in because of it. I don't. I still think their non-conference schedule and the Big 12 North's weakness may cost them. They also can't completely crash out against their in-state rivals today. Oklahoma State also has a chance to crash the party (after looking like a lock for much of January), but will need a big win against Texas to make a really good case. A Wildcat-Cowboy final will have coaches like John Beilein and Trent Johnson looking for the Rolaids this evening and tomorrow afternoon.
Big 10 - Not really much to talk about here. Ohio State is looking to further cement its one seed, while Wisconsin wants to grab one. Purdue and Illinois look to be safe after big wins yesterday. Purdue could definitely help its cause with a performance similar to the one in their second matchup with the Buckeyes in Columbus, a 7-point overtime loss. Illinois lost by 7 to the Badgers in Urbana-Champaign, so they're hoping for a better result today.
ACC - NC State is trying to be Cinderella. They have a damned good chance, considering they're playing Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack demolished the Hokies by 11 in Blacksburg and 25 in Raleigh. UNC will try to keep its hopes of getting back on the top line alive when they take on Boston College, who probably deserves better than a 7 seed. A second consecutive final appearance may take the Eagles higher.
More in a bit...first action of the day starts in 15 minutes.
# posted by Chris @ 10:40 
